Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on the Gulf’s burgeoning AI industry, the lawlessness of the conflict, and an emerging alignment among Middle Eastern middle powers as the region grapples with successive crises. | But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |  | The Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar, March 3, 2026 (DPA photo via AP). |
| President Donald Trump’s numerous conflicting statements yesterday about whether he will seek an end to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran had the effect of bringing oil and natural gas prices down from their earlier peak, but the future course of the conflict remains murky as ever. And global energy benchmarks are still above pre-war levels. | If the war isn’t resolved soon, those prices will resume their upward climb. That is because the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, remains virtually closed to maritime traffic—notwithstanding Trump’s statement that tankers should “show some guts” and proceed through it. | “Gulf War III Is by far the largest oil disruption in history and has zeroed out spare capacity,” according to a new analysis from the Rapidan Energy Group. “Absent a near-term resumption of Strait of Hormuz flows, the global oil market will need to balance via demand destruction caused by sharply rising oil prices.” | All of this is imposing a considerable strain on economies around the world. | Pakistan, which hosts the world’s fifth-largest population, announced a set of emergency … Purchase a subscription now to read the rest and get the full top story in your Daily Review email every day. |
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| | | | With its redundant data centers, distributed networks and fiber-optic cables running under every ocean, the very architecture of the digital cloud is an effort to make geography irrelevant. Iranian Shahed drones offered a pointed rebuttal: The cloud is hosted in buildings. Buildings sit on territory. And territory has a way of attracting geopolitics—whether its rulers have planned for it or not. This vulnerability was highlighted by Iranian drone strikes on three Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Candace Rondeaux writes. | | | When it comes to the legality of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran, there are several conversations and subconversations taking place. In the U.S., one conversation is about domestic law and the extent to which the president can initiate or declare war unilaterally without Congress. Internationally, the questions are whether this war is lawful under existing treaties and if it is being conducted lawfully. Another overarching question is whether this even matters when powerful states seem able to do as they please with little consequence. On all three fronts, the picture is more complicated than many observers allow, Charli Carpenter writes. | | | The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is only the latest conflagration to rock the Middle East and North Africa. In recent years, the region has borne witness to the collapse of Sudan, the fragmentation of Libya and Yemen, and the strategic destabilization of Somalia via Israel’s recognition of the breakaway republic of Somaliland. Now, a new, loosely aligned “statist Quad” of traditional middle powers—Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—is trying to reassert itself and actively coordinate on the region’s most volatile crises, Dalia Ghanem and Ahmed Morsy write. | | | Iran: The push for 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as supreme leader came against his father’s written wishes and despite the Islamic Republic’s historical rejection of the idea of hereditary rule, Amwaj.media reports in a fascinating deep dive. In a process marked by secrecy, internal dissent, and major questions about the younger Khamenei’s legitimacy and even his physical condition, the push for his candidacy was initiated by Hossein Taeb, the former head of the intelligence bureau of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. | Pakistan: Pakistan is sending its warships to escort oil and gas tankers operated by its national shipping company through the Persian Gulf as the regional conflict disrupts shipping and threatens its already fragile, import‑dependent economy, The New York Times reports. | Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia in September 2025 but has so far refrained from involvement in the current war in the Middle East. “The deal is the most visible outcome of a multi-year strategic pivot, designed in the halls of Pakistan’s military headquarters in Rawalpindi to reposition the country from aid recipient to security guarantor for countries that are losing faith in the United States’ staying power in the region,” Elfadil Ibrahim wrote in a WPR briefing in October. That strategy includes “expansion into new maritime arenas,” Ibrahim noted. | | The paid edition of today’s newsletter includes additional On Our Radar items the deployment of warships by France and the parliamentary election in Colombia. | Purchase your all-access subscription now to make sure you don’t miss important news and analysis. | If you believe you are already a paid subscriber and are receiving this free edition by mistake, it may be because you are registered with two email addresses. Please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive only the paid edition going forward. | | | More from WPR | | Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.