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"The Gaza ceasefire may not last."

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January 24, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the ceasefire in Gaza and the factors that drove electoral violence in 2024.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top stories:

The International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands, March 31, 2021 (AP photo by Peter Dejong).

The chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, said yesterday he was seeking arrest warrants for the head of the Taliban, Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada, and Afghanistan’s chief justice for their “unprecedented” persecution of women and girls, as well as the LGBTQ+ community, in the country. (New York Times)

Earlier this week, Italian police detained Osama Elmasry Njeem, the director of several infamous prisons in Libya, under an arrest warrant from the ICC, which suspects him of crimes against humanity and war crimes. Two days after his arrest on Sunday, though, Italy released Njeem and escorted him back to Libya, a move the ICC has denounced. (Reuters)

Our Take: The ICC’s request for arrest warrants against the Taliban leaders comes after a yearslong campaign by human rights activists calling for recognition of “gender apartheid” as a crime under the court’s jurisdiction. Though Khan’s statement...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

On Sunday, the first phase of a three-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas went into effect, beginning with a halt in the fighting and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange between the two sides.

That the two sides reached this agreement raises the question, “Why now?” Or perhaps more appropriately, “Why did it take so long?”

As former U.S. President Joe Biden himself noted in discussing the deal, this is essentially the same framework he had put forward in May. That the war dragged on for eight more months, resulting in thousands more deaths, simply underscores the ultimate puzzle of war: Why do belligerents continue fighting and incurring the costs of war, only to accept a deal that could have been reached much sooner?

Columnist Paul Poast explains:

The Gaza Ceasefire Was Overdue. That Doesn’t Mean It Will Last By Paul Poast The situation on the ground in Gaza was ripe for a ceasefire. That doesn’t mean it’s ripe for long-lasting peace between Israel and Hamas.

*****

The peaceful inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday stood in stark contrast to four years ago, when former President Joe Biden took office just weeks after a violent mob had stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to keep him from power.

It also stood in contrast to two other recent inaugurations in Venezuela and Mozambique, whose presidents were sworn in against the backdrop of controversial elections and deadly protests.

Venezuela and Mozambique weren’t alone either. 2024 was dubbed the year of elections, with over 1.5 billion ballots cast in 74 national elections, and many of them proved to be catalysts of political violence. This violence was triggered by a range of factors, and understanding them is key to identifying the threats facing democratic elections, Andrea Carboni, Ana Marco and Kieran Doyle write.

The Year of Elections Was Also a Year of Electoral Violence By Andrea Carboni Understanding the factors that drive electoral violence is key to identifying the threats facing democratic elections.

Among the raft of executive orders U.S. President Donald Trump signed upon taking office Monday, several represented the first steps toward implementing the new iteration of his America First agenda.

This week, we asked: Do you think Trump’s foreign, trade and security policies will strengthen the United States over the next four years?

The results? 83% of respondents said “No,” compared to 17% who said “Yes.”

Read all our coverage of the Trump era here.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, a state-appointed body, said that hundreds of civilians have been killed in fighting between government forces and Fano militias in the Amhara region. Both sides have killed dozens of civilians in the latter half of 2024, the commission said.

Ethiopia has been battling a full-blown rebellion by Fano militias in Amhara since mid-2023, triggered by the federal government’s decision to disband regional special forces and integrate them into the federal armed forces. But as Bereket Diriba wrote last year, a number of other factors contributed to deepening the grievances that exploded into civil war.

Amhara Has Become Ethiopia’s Latest Battlefield By Bereket Diriba Aug. 16, 2023 | A conflict between Ethiopia’s army and Fano militias in the Amhara region began earlier this month and quickly intensified.

*****

U.S. President Donald Trump is moving to abolish the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence, a Pentagon office responsible for assisting the military in mitigating harm to civilians. The office was established in 2023 as part of a broader plan developed by the military in response to public backlash to civilian casualties in U.S. airstrikes.

Though catalyzed by a botched drone strike in the last days of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the plan followed years of criticism by NGOs and watchdogs over civilian casualties in the war on terror. While Trump’s closure of the Pentagon office is alarming for the message it sends, as Sarah Kreps wrote when the initial plan was first announced, it was always a mixed bag.

The U.S. Military Confronts the Darker Side of Drone Strikes By Sarah Kreps Sept. 16, 2022 | To reduce civilian casualties from drone strikes, the U.S. military’s intelligence-gathering needs less confirmation bias and more skepticism.

*****

Newly released data shows that Argentina’s economy grew more than expected in November, the latest data point to burnish President Javier Milei’s pro-market agenda. As remarkable of a turnaround as it is for the country’s eccentric, far-right leader, though, it remains unclear whether these shifts signify a new era for Argentina or merely another chapter in the country’s recurring cycle of economic booms and busts. Read more in this briefing by Bruno Binetti.

*****

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister visited Lebanon yesterday for the first time in a decade, marking a potential thaw in relations after Lebanese lawmakers elected President Joseph Aoun, who reportedly had Riyadh’s backing, earlier this month. Read more about Aoun’s election and what it could mean for Lebanon in this edition of the Daily Review.

Upcoming Elections

Belarus will hold a managed presidential election Sunday in which President Alexander Lukashenko is all but guaranteed to win a seventh term. Read more about Lukashenko’s dismantling of Belarus’ democracy in this briefing.

More from WPR

Richard Gowan on Trump’s U.N. agenda. Joshua Kurlantzick and Abigail McGowan on Singapore’s upcoming elections. Benjamin N. Gedan on U.S. support for Guatemala’s democracy. Daniel W. Drezner on fears of a great power war.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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