WPR Daily Review.

"Trump eyes bigger prize than US-Ukraine mineral deal.

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 28 February 2025, 2003 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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February 28, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal and U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on South Africa.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

People hold a photograph of Abdullah Ocalan as they watch live on a TV screen as DEM delegation members release a statement from Ocalan, in Diyarbakir, Turkey, Feb. 27, 2025 (AP photo by Metin Yoksu).

Turkey: Yesterday, Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the militant Kurdistan Worker’s Party, or PKK, called on the group to lay down its arms and dissolve itself after fighting an insurgency against Turkey for more than 40 years. Ocalan’s statement suggested the call was made unilaterally, although it follows months of talks with Turkish officials and the country’s main pro-Kurdish party. (New York Times)

Our Take: In and of itself, Ocalan’s declaration is momentous. Although he has been imprisoned for more than two decades, he remains the iconic leader and most influential voice in the PKK, which he founded. His call amounts to...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy finally reached a deal, or at least the “framework” of a deal, on developing Ukraine’s critical mineral reserves. Perhaps most notable about the agreement is that it came after Trump seemed to pivot U.S. support from Ukraine to Russia on questions about the war.

The diplomatic whiplash of recent weeks is a lot to process, and observers are right to be disoriented. While confusing, recent events reveal much about the Trump administration’s general approach to foreign policy, its support for Ukraine specifically and its stance on the war in Ukraine as a whole, columnist Paul Poast writes.

Trump Has His Eyes on a Bigger Prize Than the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Deal By Paul Poast Trump desperately wants to be seen as the one who ends the war in Ukraine and thinks the U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal will help him do that.

*****

“We must chart [a new] path in a world that is rapidly changing,” President Cyril Ramaphosa told the South African people this month in his State of the Nation address. Without mentioning U.S. President Donald Trump or Elon Musk directly, Ramaphosa gave a forceful denunciation of the remarkable swing in U.S. policy toward South Africa since Trump returned to the White House on Jan. 20.

Ramaphosa’s address came in response to a whiplash-inducing turn from the era of Trump’s predecessor, which has seen the machinery of the U.S. government deployed to advance a misinformation agenda linked to South African white nationalist movements against Pretoria.

Despite the new overtones, however, this sudden pivot comes against the backdrop of more long-standing tensions in the U.S.-South Africa relationship over multilateralism, human rights and the role of rising powers in the global order, Matthew M. Kavanagh writes.

Trump’s Attacks on South Africa Are About More Than Land Reform By Matthew M. Kavanagh U.S.-South Africa relations have fallen apart since Trump took office, but the tensions run a lot deeper than just recent events.

Syria’s National Dialogue Conference, billed by the country’s interim government as the first step in its political transition, wrapped up earlier this week in Damascus. The conference suggested that the interim leaders are willing to at the very least pay lip service to an inclusive and democratic transition, which Western countries say is necessary to fully lift crippling economic sanctions on the country.

This week, we asked: Should the West fully lift economic sanctions on Syria?

The results? 64% of respondents said “Yes,” compared to 36% who said “No.”

Read all our coverage of Syria here.

The EU and India agreed to finalize a long-delayed free trade agreement today, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Indian PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi. The EU has ramped up efforts to expand trade with India in response to tariff threats from the United States.

Preoccupied with other issues, EU policymakers have often ignored India’s emergence as a global economic and security power. But as Alexander Clarkson wrote in 2023, the possible areas of overlap, partnership and rivalry between Brussels and New Delhi are so extensive that both sides would do well to prioritize interactions with each other as much as relations with Washington and Beijing.

Europe’s Ties With India Are Dangerously Underdeveloped By Alexander Clarkson Feb. 22, 2023 | In its preoccupation with Russia and China, the EU isn’t paying enough attention to relations with India and its role in foreign policy.

*****

In a meeting in Beijing today, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the secretary of Russia’s Security Council that the two countries need to strengthen their coordination in regional and international affairs. In a separate meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said bilateral relations would remain “rock-solid and unshakable.”

Effusive rhetoric about the strength of Chinese-Russian ties and the synergies between Beijing and Moscow’s perspectives have become commonplace in bilateral meetings, but it masks a significant vulnerability in the Russia-China strategic partnership. As Samuel Ramani wrote in 2023, although Russia and China share similar views about the global order, their actual cooperation on the ground lags far behind, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.

Russia and China Don’t See Eye to Eye in the Middle East and Africa By Samuel Ramani Oct. 3, 2023 | China and Russia both champion a multipolar world. But their interests are at odds in the Middle East and Africa.

*****

Around 5,800 projects that had been funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, were officially notified Wednesday that their funding had been cut. Many had received a waiver from previous freezes because they were considered essential or lifesaving by the U.S. State Department. Read more on why President Donald Trump has targeted U.S. foreign aid in this column by Paul Poast.

*****

Yesterday, Mexico transferred to the United States more than two dozen top cartel operatives who had been wanted by U.S. authorities. The move comes as the Trump administration has criticized Mexico’s approach to curbing cartels, while Mexico has sought to partner with the U.S. on the issue. Read more about how intertwined Mexico’s security challenges are with the U.S. in this edition of the Daily Review from October.

Upcoming Elections

Tajikistan holds general elections Sunday. President Emomali Rahmon’s ruling party is expected to win a large majority in a managed vote.

Micronesians vote in general elections Tuesday.

More from WPR

Idean Salehyan on U.S. refugee admissions. Frida Ghitis on Elon Musk. Michael Hart on Vietnam’s South China Sea activities. Charli Carpenter on the nuclear weapons ban treaty.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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