Semafor Flagship-The World Today

"Iran picks new leader, Water resources in spotlight, Russia reaps Iran benefits."

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March 9, 2026
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The World Today

  1. Iran picks new leader
  2. Water resources in spotlight
  3. Russia reaps Iran benefits
  4. Trump signals Cuba action
  5. How Trump uses force
  6. Rough US jobs report
  7. China sees AI as job creator
  8. Nepal’s rapper-turned-leader
  9. Germany attempts to rearm
  10. Botswana’s lion numbers up

A chaotic, interactive play about the thrill and anxiety of a to-do list.

1

Iran names new supreme leader

Iran oil depot fire
Hassan Ghaedi/Anadolu via Getty Images

The US-Israel war against Iran escalated over the weekend, as both sides intensified attacks on critical infrastructure and Tehran picked a new leader. Israel targeted Iranian fuel depots, while Bahrain accused Tehran of damaging a desalination plant. The US is weighing its next steps in the war, with options including sending special units into Iran to seize and destroy key nuclear sites, Semafor reported. Iran sought to signal stability on Sunday by naming Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the country’s late supreme leader, as his successor. US President Donald Trump said earlier Sunday that whoever is chosen won’t “last long” unless Tehran first gets approval from Washington.

2

Strikes hit Gulf water resources, oil output

Water desalination plant
Fayez Nureldine/AFP via Getty Images

The Iranian attack on a Bahraini desalination plant put a focus on drinking water as a critical resource — and vulnerability — for the Gulf. Hundreds of Middle Eastern plants supply water to millions in the region, sustaining major cities. Even as Iran’s president apologized to Gulf nations, analysts see the strikes as Tehran’s attempt to impose costs on its neighbors and push them to oppose US and Israeli hostilities. Iran is “really going for the jugular,” an Arab Gulf States Institute scholar said. Attacks on energy facilities have disrupted production, while several countries also started reducing oil output as tankers continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs warned oil prices could surpass $100 a barrel this week.

Subscribe to Semafor’s Gulf briefing for more news and analysis from the region. →

3

Russia hopes to gain from Iran war

Russian oil refinery
Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images

Russia hopes to reap the benefits of an extended Middle East war, even as the conflict imperils one of its allies. Moscow is profiting from a spike in oil prices, and the Kremlin bets a windfall from prolonged hostilities could help boost its coffers to pay for military operations in Ukraine and plug a budget deficit, The Associated Press wrote. India, China, and Turkey could increase purchases of Russian crude. Russia also hopes the war pulls attention away from Ukraine and depletes Western arsenals. A weakened Iran wouldn’t dramatically dent Vladimir Putin’s authority at home or abroad, analysts said. Iran has always been “something of a strategic frenemy” to Russia, one expert said, and the war could make Tehran a more amenable partner.

4

Trump ramps up Cuba warnings

Cuba GDP change

Cuba is “at the end of the line” given its dire economic situation, US President Donald Trump warned Saturday, signaling imminent action against Havana. The Caribbean nation has experienced severe fuel shortages, upending daily life on the island, after the US blockaded Venezuelan oil shipments. “We have returned to the Stone Age,” one Cuban man told CNN during a recent blackout. Trump made the latest comments to a group of Latin American leaders, pointing to his strategy of asserting US dominance over the Western Hemisphere. The Cuban government has signaled openness to a deal with Washington, including alignment with Trump’s security doctrine, but the US likely sees this as insufficient and wants something closer to full regime change, El País wrote.

5

How Trump is using military force

Trump
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s use of military force in his second term has aligned him more closely with previous administrations, rather than his own pledges to avoid overseas commitments. Trump was “a strident critic of the post-9/11 wars,” an Atlantic writer noted, but like Republican neoconservatives of the mid-2000s, has now become an advocate of regime change. He has bombed several countries, captured the leader of Venezuela after months of military buildup, and now launched the war in Iran. That last one is “the biggest gamble of [his] political career,” The Wall Street argued. Trump hopes to avoid the use of ground troops and thus a costly, long-term, Iraq-style quagmire, using a modern-day version of “gunboat diplomacy” instead.

6

US jobs report puts Fed in tough spot

The latest US labor market report, which showed the country lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushed stocks down and pointed to broader economic weakness. Economists had expected an increase in payrolls after a strong January suggested the job market may be steadying. But severe winter weather, a health care strike in California, and AI-related cuts contributed to the slowdown. The dismal report comes at a volatile time for the economy, as the war in Iran risks reigniting inflation. That puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot. The central bank “has few good options,” The Wall Street Journal wrote; it is expected to keep rates steady next week, but holding firm for too long risks imperiling the already-fragile labor market.

7

China aims for AI to create jobs

Artificial intelligence
Joan Cros/NurPhoto via Getty Images

China pledged to use AI to create jobs, as the technology upends industries and labor markets around the world. Nearly 13 million Chinese graduates are set to enter the workforce this year, but the youth unemployment rate remains elevated. Officials voiced confidence that AI will lead to new roles and upgrade traditional ones: The country generally has a more optimistic view of AI compared to the West, The New York Times noted last week, in part because of the country’s focus on real-world applications for the tech. In the US, much of the conversation around the job market surrounds AI’s potential to displace human workers: Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs, partly because of AI disruption, Bloomberg reported.

For more on how China is approaching AI, sign up for Semafor’s new China briefing. →

8

Ex-rapper on course to lead Nepal

Balendra Shah
Adnan Abidi/Reuters

A former rapper who played a leading role in the Gen Z protests that toppled Nepal’s political old guard is on track to become the country’s next prime minister. Balendra Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra Party are poised to secure the biggest landslide in Nepal’s modern electoral history following Thursday’s election. Shah rose to fame after the youth-led protests, sparked by a social media ban, rocked the country last year. The unrest was part of a global wave of protests led by young people fed up with corruption and rising costs. But to actually drive change, Shah will have to make the kind of political deals for which he “has so far shown sneering distaste,” The New York Times wrote.

9

Old facilities hamper German military

German military
Martin Schutt/dpa via Getty Images

Germany’s attempt to rearm is being slowed by infrastructure weakened by years of underinvestment. A naval command post has been partly shuttered since 2019 by mold, and one barracks waited 22 years for an elevator to be installed, a report on the Bundeswehr’s readiness revealed. The briefing found significant progress overall since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which triggered a rapid increase in defense spending, the Financial Times reported. Berlin has signed around $230 billion in equipment deals since then. But many facilities remain desperately in need of renovation. Germany is not alone: Britain’s Royal Navy has only 52 active surface ships and 10 submarines, down from 328 total in 1952, and many are in need of updating.

10

Lion numbers are up in Botswana

Lion in Botswana
Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images

A combination of high-tech warning systems and traditional cattle-herding practices has led to a revival of Botswana’s lions. Herders used to stay with their cattle, a job often given to young boys. But as more children started going to school, more herds were left unsupervised, and losses to lions increased. In response, herders often poisoned the lions, and regional numbers dwindled. Using GPS to track lions and employing trained herders who use stockades have cut cattle losses and reduced retaliation. The lion population is up 50% in the last four years, Mongabay reported. Further, a return to herding may allow the removal of fences, which block wildlife migration and harm elephants, wildebeest, and other species.

Flagging

March 9:

  • Southeast Asian economic ministers meet in Manila to discuss economic growth.
  • Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits New York and addresses the UN General Assembly.
  • King Charles, Queen Camilla, and the Prince and Princess of Wales attend the UK’s Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey.

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