CSIS.org

- March 03, 2026

"New commentary: Why decapitation will not solve the United States' Iran problem."

Views expressed in this commentary are those of Jon B. Alterman.

Accessed on 04 March 2026, 0040 UTC.

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Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem

By: Jon B. Alterman

The assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei highlights the extraordinary precision of U.S. and Israeli military and intelligence capabilities, but killing Iran's top leadership does not guarantee the political outcomes Washington seeks. Decapitation may remove a bitter adversary, yet history suggests it more often produces instability and ungoverned spaces than compliant successor governments. From Iraq to Libya, the record of regime decapitation delivering lasting political change is poor, and Iran's complexity and deep patronage networks make it an especially hard case.

There are real military challenges, but even harder is shaping the political decisions that Iran’s future leaders will make.

In this commentary, Jon B. Alterman argues that killing Iran's leadership is not the goal of the operation, changing Iranian political behavior is. And that will be far harder than it looks.

Jon Alterman on SpyTalk

War Fever | SpyTalk Podcast | February 27, 2026

Before the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran broke out, Jon Alterman sat down with Jeff Stein, Michael Isikoff, and Karen Greenberg on the SpyTalk podcast to think through how a conflict with Iran might unfold, and what might come after. His argument then, as now: U.S. goals are fundamentally political, and those are hard to achieve from an air campaign alone.

Listen Here

Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future

Edited By: Jon B. Alterman and Lily McElwee

In December, the Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy launched Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future. The project took a close look at eight rising powers — Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, and the UAE — and how each thinks about its own future, global order, and great power competition.

The project included: an edited volume with policy recommendations, country briefs, one-page summaries, and video interviews. If you haven't had a chance to dig in yet, check out the project page linked below. At a moment when the choices major powers make will have an outsized impact on the future, this project contributes to a discussion about what to do about it.

View the Project