Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the recent U.S. brinkmanship against Iran and how it narrows Tehran’s bargaining space in negotiations, and what last week’s Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs means for his Latin America policy. | But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |  | People burn flares during a funeral ceremony for a Ukrainian soldier in Kyiv, Feb. 20, 2026 (AP photo by Dan Bashakov). |
| Looking back to the weeks and months leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it still feels striking to think about how so many were so wrong. | Many European policymakers and analysts assumed Vladimir Putin was just bluffing, that he would pull back from the brink. Or that he might launch a more limited invasion of the country to annex the country’s eastern provinces, much as he did with Crimea in 2014, but wouldn’t seek regime change. | Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly downplayed the risks, arguing that the Russian military buildup on the border was “no more intense” than during military exercises held the previous year, and that Western leaders were sowing “panic” with prognostications of war. As then-U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan put it in a recent interview with the Guardian, Zelenskyy and other leaders “were just seized with the conviction that this simply made no sense.” | It has now been four full years since the initial invasion. As WPR’s Paul Poast pointed out in his column last week, this makes it … Purchase a subscription now to read the rest and get the full top story in your Daily Review email every day. |
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| | | In many ways, the latest conflict between the U.S. and Iran is a collision between two strategic logics that offer little room for compromise: Trump’s “madman theory” of brinkmanship and Tehran’s deeply entrenched strategy of endurance. One side escalates by demonstrating unpredictability, while the other is built to absorb pressure and sanctify resistance. This clash—between improvised coercion and institutionalized intransigence—helps explain why escalation hardens Iran’s rulers without producing resolution, Neda Bolourchi writes. | | | Unfortunately for the president who once called himself “Tariff Man,” on Friday, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose many of those tariffs, ruling 6-3 that he had exceeded his authority under the 1977 law. The ruling is an enormous setback to Trump’s efforts to boost domestic manufacturing and could now lead to billions of dollars’ worth of reimbursement claims by U.S. businesses that have been paying the illegally imposed duties. But given how important tariffs were to Trump’s regional agenda during his first year in office, it will also force him to significantly readjust his policies toward Latin America for the rest of his term, James Bosworth writes in his weekly column. | | | Mexico: Mexico’s most wanted cartel boss, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, was captured by government security forces on Sunday in the town of Tapalpa in Jalisco state and subsequently died of injuries he sustained during the operation. Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” was the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation cartel. | After El Mencho’s death, cartel members lashed out across the country, blocking roads and setting fire to vehicles, banks and supermarkets. Guadalajara, Jalisco’s capital, and the tourist destination of Puerto Vallarta both saw significant violence. Mexican security forces were deployed across the country to confront the retaliation by the cartel, while President Claudia Sheinbaum urged Mexicans to remain calm, ensuring them that national and state security forces had the situation in hand. Mexico’s security minister, Omar Garcia Harfuch, said at a press conference Monday that 25 national guard personnel and 30 cartel members were killed in clashes. | As James Bosworth explained in WPR in March 2025, more aggressive crackdowns on cartels often lead to more violence in the short term, and can result in criminal organizations splintering into smaller factions that are difficult to control. “This has created immense challenges in the past, as authorities are forced to combat criminal groups on different fronts, while new, smaller groups tend to be more violent than large, centralized criminal enterprises,” Bosworth wrote. | | Philippines: The International Criminal Court proceeding against former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte for three counts of crimes against humanity got underway in The Hague, Netherlands. Prosecutors told the court that Duterte “encouraged death squads to carry out extrajudicial killings using fear and financial rewards” during anti-drug crackdowns he oversaw while in office, first as mayor of the city of Davao, then as president, the Associated Press reported. Lawyers for Duterte told the court that he “maintains his innocence absolutely.” | For background on Duterte’s record and subsequent arrest, see this February 2025 WPR briefing by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abigail McGowan, and this March 2025 Daily Review top story. | | The paid edition of today’s newsletter includes additional On Our Radar items on Iran and Uganda. | Purchase your all-access subscription now to make sure you don’t miss important news and analysis. | If you believe you are already a paid subscriber and are receiving this free edition by mistake, please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive the paid edition going forward. | | | More from WPR | | Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.