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"A weakened Iran doesn't mean a more peaceful Middle East."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

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January 6, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering Iran’s weakened power in the Middle East and geopolitical competition in Antarctica.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Protesters scatter as Kenya police spray a water canon at them during a protest over proposed tax hikes in a finance bill in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, June 25, 2024 (AP photo by Brian Inganga).

Kenya: On multiple occasions, police mischaracterized the killings by security officers of protesters during mass anti-government demonstrations last July as accidents or “mob justice,” Reuters reports. Prominent rights groups have accused Kenyan authorities of covering up dozens of police killings, abductions and illegal detentions related to the protests.

Our Take: The monthlong anti-government protests that broke out in Kenya late last June were triggered by a finance bill that would have reformed the country’s tax code, a condition for an IMF bailout that also would have raised the cost of living for millions of Kenyans. As a result, the protests...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

The rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria coupled with Israel’s weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and decimation of Hamas in Gaza have led to upbeat assessments in the West about the decline of Iran’s power and influence and the emergence of a more peaceful political order in the Middle East.

However, while Iran’s regional clout has been eroded, that does not necessarily herald a more peaceful and stable regional security environment. In fact, there is a high chance that the “new Middle East” will end up being even more volatile and unstable than the old one, in large part due to the weakening of Iran’s regional position, Abolghasem Bayyenat writes.

A Weakened Iran Doesn’t Mean a More Peaceful Middle East

By Abolghasem Bayyenat With regime change in Syria and Hezbollah weakened, Iran’s alliance system has nearly collapsed. That doesn’t mean a peaceful Middle East is emerging.

*****

Last week, Chilean President Gabriel Boric became the first Latin American leader to visit the South Pole. He also brought his ministers of environment and defense on the trip, symbolic of the strategic concerns currently playing out in Antarctica.

Some of the optics of Boric’s trip have to do with local disputes within Latin America, specifically the overlapping territorial claims in Antarctica made by Chile and Argentina. But that was probably not the primary issue driving Boric’s trip. Instead, Boric is concerned about how renewed great power competition is playing out on the continent. And as James Bosworth writes, his concern is understandable.

Geopolitical Competition Is Heating Up in Antarctica

By James Bosworth Chile’s president visited Antarctica, an attempt to draw attention to the renewed great power competition playing out on the continent.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced over the weekend that he will step down after post-election coalition talks collapsed, giving Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party, or FPO, a chance to form a government. The FPO finished first in elections in September but had no clear path to a majority because Nehammer’s conservative People’s Party initially said it would not work with it. The People’s Party may now reverse that decision.

Under Kickl’s leadership since 2021, the FPO has openly embraced conspiratorial worldviews, including deeply racist Great Replacement theories that mark a radical escalation of anti-migrant sentiment. As Alexander Clarkson wrote in 2023, the rapid change of the FPO highlights how quickly far-right parties everywhere can radicalize.

For Europe, Austria’s Far Right Is a Harbinger of Things to Come

By Alexander Clarkson June 21, 2023 | Austria’s far-right Freedom Party has for decades presaged the political realignments taking place across Europe.

*****

Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the head of Uganda’s military and son of President Yoweri Museveni, said in a social media post yesterday that he wanted to behead popular opposition leader Bobi Wine. Kainerugaba has long been considered the heir apparent to the long-ruling Museveni, with the succession plan commonly called the “Muhoozi Project.”

In recent years, though, Kainerugaba has courted controversy with bizarre posts that have raised eyebrows, ruffled diplomatic feathers and led to questions about his fitness to potentially inherit the reins of power from Museveni. The posts have only complicated the Muhoozi Project—and raised even more concern about what happens once Museveni inevitably leaves office.

Museveni’s Apparent Succession Plan Is Raising Alarm in Uganda

By Michael Mutyaba May 16, 2022 | How and when Museveni’s son might ascend to the presidency is shrouded in mystery, but there are at least four possibilities.

For Uganda, the ‘Day After Museveni’ Looms With Peril

By Moses Khisa April 7, 2023 | President Museveni has ruled Uganda for 40 years, and no credible alternatives for a successor exist, even in the National Resistance Movement.

*****

Syria’s new foreign minister is in the midst of a diplomatic tour, meeting with Saudi, German, French and Qatari counterparts in a series of meetings across several Middle Eastern countries in the past week. He is also set to visit Jordan and the UAE.

As Jonathan Fenton-Harvey wrote last month, the rush to form diplomatic relations with—and gain influence in—the new Syrian government may put regional reconciliations across the Middle East over the past four years to the ultimate test.

*****

Honduran President Xiomara Castro threatened to end the country’s military cooperation with the United States if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump deports Honduran immigrants en masse, as he has said he will as part of a broader mass deportation scheme. The threats by Castro are just the latest sign that the Western Hemisphere will bear the brunt of Trump’s disruptive foreign policy in his second term. Read more in this edition of the Daily Review from last month.

More from WPR

Kazimier Lim and Leon Sinfield on the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. Paul Poast on Jimmy Carter’s foreign policy legacy. Daniela Díaz and Joshua Collins on how Mexico curbs migration to the U.S. Mary Gallagher on China’s economic troubles.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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