Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering Trump’s pressure campaign against Cuba, which is facing an increasingly dire energy crisis, and why help from America’s East Asian allies will be necessary to rebuild U.S. sea power. | But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |  | Mali’s interim president and junta leader, Assimi Goita, arrives at the Beijing International Airport in China, Sept. 1, 2024 (Ken Ishii/Pool Photo via AP). |
| Last Friday evening, the State Department quietly announced in a social media post that its senior diplomat for Africa, Nick Checker, was traveling to Bamako “to convey the United States’ respect for Mali’s sovereignty and desire to chart a new course in the bilateral relationship and move past policy missteps.” The statement added that Washington looks forward to engaging with other governments in the region, specifically Burkina Faso and Niger, “on shared security and economic interests.” | In one sense, the department is formally declaring a stark change in policy. After a succession of coups overthrew civilian governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. under President Joe Biden suspended high-level diplomatic engagements with the new juntas and put on hold most economic and security assistance to those countries. | But in reality, the announcement just said the quiet part out loud. President Donald Trump’s administration has for months been resetting ties with West Africa’s military regimes, based on what analysts say is a quid pro quo by which the U.S. offers help in fighting violent jihadist groups in the region in exchange for access to minerals deposits in the three countries, including gold, lithium and uranium. | Checker’s message of respecting the sovereignty of these regimes seems designed to play into … Purchase a subscription now to read the rest and get the full top story in your Daily Review email every day. |
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| | In late January, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration believes it can force regime change in Cuba before the end of this year. As part of that effort, Trump signed an executive order last week imposing tariffs on goods from countries that sell or give oil to Cuba. With fewer than three weeks of oil supplies on the island and only one small shipment of it received in the past 30 days, Cuba may completely run out of fuel by the end of the month. Given that the country’s electrical grid depends on oil, the new U.S. pressure campaign will likely force nationwide brownouts and blackouts by the end of February. As James Bosworth argues in his weekly column, the question is: What then? | | | President Donald Trump’s recently unveiled plan for a “Golden Fleet” clarified Washington’s ambition to expand U.S. naval power. What it did not resolve is the constraint on doing so, as intent alone does not close the gap between ambition and industrial throughput. That reality is reflected in the global shipbuilding balance: China now delivers the majority of new output by tonnage, according to U.N. data, while U.S. treaty allies Japan and South Korea comprise much of the remaining high-end industrial capacity. | Clearly, cooperation with allies in East Asia will be necessary for the U.S. to achieve its ambitious naval expansion goals. But translating that cooperation into a repeatable shipbuilding tempo will require more than statements of commitment: Joint shipbuilding initiatives will have to be transparent, reciprocal and politically sustainable in Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, Jeffrey M. Voth writes. | | | Iran, United States: Iran and the United States will resume nuclear talks in Turkey on Friday, Reuters reported, citing officials of both countries. The Trump administration’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, though there is still a chance that the talks could fall apart. Trump has reportedly demanded sharp limits on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its support for armed proxy groups in the region, but Iran has so far insisted only its nuclear program is on the table. | India: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India in a social media post on Monday, agreeing to lower U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 18 percent in exchange for New Delhi agreeing to cease its purchases of Russian oil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his own post on X that he was “delighted” that a deal had been reached. | Philippines: Vice President Sara Duterte is facing two more impeachment complaints after she survived a similar attempt to remove her from office last year. At the same time, two separate impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. passed a procedural step in the House of Representatives, illustrating the depth of the ongoing feud between the two leaders. Both sets of complaints have to do with misuse of public funds, and both Duterte and Marcos deny any wrongdoing. | Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, plans to run for president in 2028. Marcos is term limited but wants to keep Duterte—his former ally turned arch rival—from power and plans to back another successor. In a June WPR briefing, Joshua Kurlantzick looked at how the infighting between the Marcos and Duterte families is affecting the stability of the Philippines. “For much of the past two years, the Philippines’ two leading political dynasties have been at war with each other,” Kurlantzick wrote. “Their political battle has major implications for the Philippines, none of them good.” | | The paid edition of today’s newsletter includes additional On Our Radar items on Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Sudan, Egypt, Costa Rica and Guinea-Bissau. | Purchase your subscription now to make sure you don’t miss anything. | If you believe you are already a paid subscriber and are receiving this free edition by mistake, please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive the paid edition going forward. | | More from WPR | | Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.