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"Modi and Putin's bromantic show of defiance."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

December 04, 2025 Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the ghosts of history that could be disturbed by Germany’s military spending spree, and the recent spike in tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea over access to the Red Sea. But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embrace at the Palam Air Base in New Delhi, Dec. 4, 2025 (Pool photo by Grigory Sysoyev of Sputnik via AP). Russian President Vladimir Putin is getting the red carpet treatment in New Delhi, where he arrived today for his first state visit since Russian’s invasion of Ukraine in 2002. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with one of his customary bear hugs before escorting him to a private dinner at Modi’s residence. Beyond the displays of bonhomie, the two leaders are expected to sign a slew of deals that expand their countries’ already close military and commercial ties. But the visit also carries important symbolism as Modi and Putin look for ways to demonstrate their strategic autonomy vis-à-vis the West. Modi’s government has denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 50 percent tariffs on the country earlier this year, half of which were punishment for India’s purchases of Russian oil despite the war in Ukraine. While officials have hinted that Washington and New Delhi are close to a deal to resolve the dispute, Modi still views his meeting with Putin as an important chance to reinforce India’s longstanding … Purchase a subscription now to get the paid edition of the Daily Review, which includes the full top story. This is the free edition of our Daily Newsletter. If you believe you are a paid subscriber and are receiving this edition by mistake, please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive the paid edition going forward. When it comes to defense spending, Germany has long been criticized as a free-rider, building its economic strength under the protection of the U.S. security umbrella. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the return of interstate war to Europe, Germans have slowly but surely recognized the threats confronting Europe. Real change is now happening in Germany when it comes to public opinion, politics and policy around defense spending. This, however, opens up a whole new set of challenges, Nathalie Tocci writes. Germany’s Defense Spending Spree Comes With Some Potential Downsides Germany’s turnaround on defense spending is a step forward for European security. But it also raises some troubling questions. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/germany-defense-spending-merz Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been ratcheting up again in recent months, sparking concerns that the Horn of Africa could see a return to conflict. The focal point is Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s fixation on regaining access to the sea for his country, which has been landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993. To do so, Abiy has laid claim to the Eritrean port of Assab, located just 70 kilometers from the Ethiopian border. Jane Cybulski reports on what’s driving this consequential development. Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on the Brink of War Again, Over Sea Access Amid concerns that the two neighbors could return to open conflict, Ethiopia has called for international mediation. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ethiopia-eritrea-tensions-red-sea

Trump to Host Rwanda and Congo Leaders for Peace Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump will host Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda, at the White House on Thursday in an effort to advance peace between the two countries. Rwanda has backed the M23 rebel group fighting against Congolese government forces in a war that has killed thousands of people this year. The two countries signed a peace agreement in June in Washington, but fighting in eastern Congo has continued. This latest agreement is supposed to build on the previous deal, and Trump has planned a signing ceremony at the former U.S. Institute of Peace, now renamed the Donald J. Trump U.S. Institute of Peace. The fact that the war has raged on in the wake of the June agreement has “fueled skepticism among observers about whether these diplomatic breakthroughs will deliver on the ambitious promises made to the people of the region, or whether they are simply politically expedient transactional exchanges based on narrow security and economic interests,” Mohamed Keita wrote in a WPR in-depth piece in July. The June agreement favored Rwanda and–in the absence of any international verification mechanism–appeared to give it the ability to use the presence of a Hutu armed group in eastern Congo to “either delay its withdrawal or to once again intervene in eastern Congo in the future,” Keita wrote.   Without Follow-Up, Trump’s DRC-Rwanda Deal Won’t Bring Peace The U.S.-brokered deal represents a diplomatic breakthrough. But observers are skeptical it will deliver on its ambitious promises. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/drc-rwanda-m23-eastern-congo

Yemeni Armed Group Makes Quick Advance

A separatist group in Yemen backed by the United Arab Emirates seized control of large parts of an oil-rich province on Wednesday, The New York Times reports. The group, known as the Southern Transitional Council, has been battling in Yemen’s south to entrench its control over the port of Aden and nearby towns, but their breakout into the province of Hadramout represents a new push to the east and north, and shatters what had been a stalemate between the various forces fighting for control of the country, including the STC, the Houthis in the north, and forces aligned with the internationally recognized government. As Jonathan Fenton-Harvey wrote in WPR in July, Yemen’s previous calm has hidden the fact that the country “is increasingly fractured across political, economic and geographic lines. While often oversimplified as a Shiite-Sunni proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s tensions have long been driven by internal grievances that date back to the unification of North and South Yemen in 1990.” A return to all-out war, Fenton-Harvey wrote, was a distinct possibility, and would likely be prompted by one of the country’s armed groups “exploiting an opportunity to seize territory from the other.”   Yemen Is Sliding Toward De Facto Partition—or Worse A ceasefire brokered in 2022 is still holding, but Yemen increasingly risks sliding back into conflict or hardening into permanent fragmentation. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/yemen-civil-war-fragmentation The paid edition of the newsletter includes additional On Our Radar items. Purchase your subscription now to make sure you don’t miss anything. If you believe you are already a paid subscriber and are receiving this free edition by mistake, please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive the paid edition going forward.

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