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"US-China trade redux:  Risks behind the Busan Deal."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 02 November 2025, 2157 UTC.

Content and Source"  "Geopolitical Monitor."

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Please check URL or scroll down to read your selections.  Thanks for joining us today.

Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

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US–China Trade Truce Redux: Risks Behind the Busan Deal

President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping , modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-participates-in-a-bilateral-meeting-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping/

The Busan framework illustrates a new phase in US–China relations: one defined not by resolution or reconciliation, but by management of rivalry.

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 Supply Chains: The Achilles Heel of US Military Power?

JOINT BASE ELMENDORF-RICHARDSON, Alaska - - Senior Airman Joseph Liptak, assigned to the 3rd Munitions Squadron, Precision Guided Munitions Crew Chief in Production Flight, conducts maintenance on a Captive Air Training Missile AIM-9 missile, June 7, 2013. He is coating the hanger with solid film. This substance is like a paint, but protects the hangers and allows the missile to slide on and off easily from the jet's hangers. (U.S. Air Force photo/Johnathon Green)

Critical mineral dependencies and a military complex that’s not fit for purpose represent strategic vulnerabilities that will reverberate in US foreign policy, at least in the short-term.

Taiwan Searches for Economic Allies in a Divided World

cc Presidential Office Building, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:William_Lai_Ching-te_20170905.jpg

Taiwan’s drive to diversify international partners reflects the tightrope that middle powers must navigate amidst growing great power competition. In this, the Canada-Taiwan economic cooperation framework can serve as an instructive case for Taipei.

 Taiwan in Japan’s Strategic Perspective: Gateway to Tokyo’s Backyard

cc 海上自衛隊, modified, 訓練中の海自隊員 / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JS_Bungo_and_JS_Etajima_conducted_goodwill_exercise_with_Seychelles_patrol_vessel_PS_Andromache_on_24_March_2025_off_the_coast_of_Victoria_-_5.jpg

Taiwan matters to Japan: economically, diplomatically, and strategically. But while Tokyo cannot detach itself from Taiwan’s fate, neither can it afford to become too tightly bound to outcomes it does not control.

Malaysia’s Upgrade Moment: China’s Fingerprints on Industrial Engineering

Generated by ChatGPT on October 28, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Malaysia is entering a decisive phase where Chinese firms are shaping the country’s next industrial frontier, but decisive policy that rewards capability, mandates openness, and enforces standards will be necessary to ensure the economic benefits are widespread and long-lasting.

Japan Eyes Entry into Global Small Arms Market

cc Hunini, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JGSDF_Type_20_rifle_at_Camp_Itami_October_2,_2022_04.jpg

Japan’s longstanding ban on arms exports has been slowly dismantled since the Shinzo Abe era, with the conspicuous exception of small arms exports. That may be about to change.

What Trump’s Kuala Lumpur Turn Teaches the West About Southeast Asia

cc White House, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-delivers-remarks-at-the-white-house-ai-summit-at-andrew-w-mellon-auditorium-in-washington-d-c/

Trump’s Kuala Lumpur gambit was a reminder that power still matters in the Indo-Pacific. But power without predictable politics is a brittle foundation.

 Geopolitics Weekly (US-Australia Rare Earths Deal, Carrier Strike Group in Caribbean)

GeopoliticsWeeklyHeader

This week we cover new US sanctions against Russian oil majors, the deployment of a US Carrier Strike Group to the Caribbean, a US-Australia rare earths deal, and the outcome of highly consequential midterm elections in Argentina.

US–Pakistan Ties are Quietly Redrawing South Asian Geopolitics

President Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan , modified, cc White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-meets-with-prime-minister-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-of-pakistan/

After years of diplomatic frost, the US–Pakistan relationship is warming again — not through rhetoric, but through energy, technology, and minerals — the currency of modern geopolitics.

UN Cybercrime Pact Hopes to Curb Rise of Transnational Criminal Networks

Generated by ChatGPT on October 24, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

State leaders hope that the weekend signing of the United Nations Convention on Cybercrime in Hanoi will mark a step toward reversing the growth of transnational cybercrime networks, many of which operate with impunity just across the Mekong. But as always with global treaties, the devil will be in the details.

 Breaking the Ice: Unpacking the US-Finland Icebreaker Deal

The heavy ice breaker USCGC Polar Star (WAGB 10) breaks ice approaching McMurdo Station, Antarctica. Joint Task Force-Support Forces Antarctica oversees the activities of the joint services and provides Department of Defense support to the National Science Foundation and United States Antarctic Program through Operation Deep Freeze. (U.S. Navy photo by Senior Chief Mass Communication Specialist RJ Stratchko), modified, https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Media/News/Article-View/Article/3653655/us-coast-guards-polar-star-cuts-through-ice-with-help-of-nswcpd/

The recent US-Finland icebreaker deal has two objectives: close the capability gap with Russia in the High North and thaw out a long-frozen segment of the US shipbuilding industry.

Ireland Braces for a Contentious Presidency

cc Irish politician Catherine Connolly speaking in Dáil Eireann, 9 April 2024, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Catherine_Connolly_-_9_April_2024_78.jpg

Upcoming elections in Ireland could produce a president at odds with the current government. We look to the Irish constitution for insight into the Irish presidency and constitutional heads of state elsewhere.

Sybir, Geography, and Memory in Northeast Poland

Sybir Memorial Museum, Białystok, Poland, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sybir_Memorial_Museum,_Bia%C5%82ystok,_Poland.jpg

It is in Poland’s east that the next stage of reconciliation and unification will happen in Europe, guided by Sybir and the need to once again make this borderland whole.

From Guam to Camp David: Nixon-Era Lessons for the US-Japan-ROK Trilateral

Flags representing the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea are displayed during a trilateral meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Tarō Kōno and Republic of Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on July 7, 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. (State Department photo/ Public Domain), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Secretary_Pompeo_Participates_in_Trilateral_Meeting_in_Tokyo_%2828400351467%29.jpg

The Nixon era not only offers ambiguous lessons, but practical guideposts for strengthening trilateral US-Japan-ROK security cooperation, made all the more relevant by growing concerns of a ‘dual contingency’ in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

Australia US State Visit: Hard Lessons in Soft Power

President Donald J. Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese / October 2025, cc The White House, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Donald_Trump_and_Prime_Minister_Anthony_Albanese.jpg

A US state visit by Australia’s prime minister highlights the challenges of maintaining democratic integrity while advancing national interests as a middle power — a balancing act of dignity and practicality in an era where performance politics has genuine policy implications.

Indonesia-North Korea Thaw Opens Door to Closer Security Ties

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kim_Il-sung_and_Sukarno,_1965.jpg, modified, Kim Il-sung and Sukarno, 1965

Indonesia and North Korea are rebuilding a modest rapport. Whether the two nations’ engagement expands to become a significant factor in regional security depends on Indonesia; but it wouldn’t be the first time that Jakarta surprised on the foreign policy front.

 Taiwan in India’s Strategic Perspective

As The Sunrise Command welcomes India's Indigenous Aircraft Carrier IN R11 Vikrant, May she always live by her motto

In addition to a burgeoning bilateral technology partnership, Taiwan affords New Delhi strategic space in the Indo-Pacific region and keeps critical SLOCs out of China’s direct control.

 Geopolitics Weekly (EU Drone Wall, Argentine Midterms)

GeopoliticsWeeklyHeader

This week we cover new EU initiatives meant to shore up defenses along the bloc’s eastern flank, President Trump’s foray into the heart of Argentine politics, and a new political coalition that could shake up foreign policy in Japan.

China–India Rapprochement and Its Strategic Implications for Afghanistan

cc Jerome Starkey, modified, The Chinese state owned mining company MCC have built a camp at Mes Ainak, 35km south of Kabul, while archeologists are racing to excavate a series of ancient Buddhist monasteries before the bulldozers roll in. The Afghan government is desperate for the copper royalites, once mining starts, but officials familiar with the deal said the Chinise, having secured the rights to the deposit, appear to be in no hurry to start exploiting it. They are supposed to build a railway and a power station, but have not started either. / https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeromestarkey/6349904680

Shifts in Asian geopolitics are creating new opportunities for Afghanistan, but administrative and security challenges must be overcome for Kabul to take full advantage of them.

2025 KMT Chair Race: Balancing Peace and Peril in Taiwan

English: Supporters of KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou attend a rally on Taipei’s Ketagalan Blvd. on Jan. 8, 2012. 中文: 中華民國第十三任總統、副總統選舉中國國民黨101年1月8日在台北市凱達格蘭大道舉辦「為台灣讚出來」造勢活動,現場吸引大批支持的民眾。(郝振泰攝), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:KMT-Anhaenger.jpg

The 2025 KMT chair race is not just an internal power struggle. It is a mirror reflecting Taiwan’s broader dilemma between peace and peril.

How Pakistan Revived Its Geopolitical Positioning

President Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan , modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-meets-with-prime-minister-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-of-pakistan/

Pakistan has been able to thread the needle between two superpowers despite cascading political and economic crisis at home. Here’s how Islamabad is pulling it off.

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