Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the Trump administration’s increasingly messy war narrative on Venezuela, and how the death of longtime power broker Raila Odinga is shaking up the political landscape in Kenya. | But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |  | Presidential candidate Rodrigo Paz waves a Bolivian flag after preliminary results showed him leading in the presidential runoff election in La Paz, Bolivia, Oct. 19, 2025 (AP photo by Natacha Pisarenko). |
| Center-right senator Rodrigo Paz won Bolivia’s presidential runoff election Sunday and is expected to be sworn in next month once the result has been certified. A preliminary tally showed Paz with 54.6 percent of the vote while right-wing former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga received 45.4 percent. | Paz’s inauguration will close the curtain on two decades of leftist rule in the country. The long-dominant Movement Toward Socialism party, known by its Spanish acronym MAS, won a paltry 3 percent of the vote in the first-round general election in August amid internal divisions and an economic crisis that voters blamed it for failing to address. | Bolivian authorities and international observers reported no major incidents during the balloting, an encouraging sign given the country’s recent history of electoral unrest. Quiroga has already called Paz to concede the race. | In remarks to his supporters after the preliminary results were announced, Paz emphasized his campaign slogan of “capitalism for all,” and said he would prioritize job creation and tackle . . . Purchase a subscription now to get the paid edition of the Daily Review, which includes the full top story. | | This is the free edition of our Daily Newsletter. If you believe you are a paid subscriber and are receiving this edition by mistake, please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive the paid edition going forward. |
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| | In the past two months, at least seven vessels have been sunk in the Caribbean by the U.S. military, which has built up a significant naval and aerial force in the area. President Donald Trump’s administration has also acknowledged that at least 32 people have been killed in these strikes so far, characterizing them as “narco-terrorists” who are using the boats to traffic drugs to the United States. So far, all of the administration’s announcements about targeting and sinking these boats have referred to them as being operated by Venezuelans and originating from Venezuela. This underscores the two separate but related narratives playing out with regard to the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean right now—narratives that are starting to come apart, James Bosworth argues. | | | In life, Raila Amolo Odinga was both kingmaker and perennial challenger, as well as a practitioner of political dealmaking who repeatedly reshaped Kenya’s democratic landscape through strategic alliances. His death last week at the age of 80 complicates incumbent President William Ruto’s path to a second term in the 2027 elections due to Odinga’s key role in the ethnic and regional alignments necessary for Ruto—or any politician for that matter—to secure the country’s top office, Lesley Anne Warner writes. | | | Turkish Cypriots elected a leader Sunday who campaigned on negotiating an end to the island’s ethnic rift and forming a federation with Greek Cypriots. Tufan Erhurman won more than 62 percent of the vote against incumbent Ersin Tatar, a nationalist who had not engaged in formal peace talks at all during his five-year term. | The development offers some glimmer of hope for a Cyprus settlement, a significant change from the pessimism that had taken hold in recent years. Since Tatar’s victory in 2020, both Ankara and the Turkish Cypriot leadership have been “openly insisting on a two-state solution,” even though such a measure had been “explicitly rejected by the U.N. Security Council, which remains wedded to a bizonal, bicommunal federal settlement,” James Ker-Lindsay wrote for WPR in February 2023. |
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| | | The Portuguese parliament approved a bill to ban face veils in public last week. The ban, introduced by the far-right Chega party but also supported by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s center-right coalition, applies to coverings used for “gender or religious motives.” Violations are punishable by up to three years in prison and fines of up to 4,000 euros. | While Chega is not part of the ruling coalition, Montenegro has frequently adopted the party’s line on security and immigration issues, which has helped to validate its far-right message, Francisco Serrano wrote in WPR in January. “Chega has chosen fear as its main political product,” Serrano wrote. “But in helping to sell it, the current Portuguese government is making a big mistake.” |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.