Welcome to the latest issue of Diplomat Brief. This week our top story explores what China and the U.S. want to get out of the much-anticipated summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. We also have an interview with Scott Miller, author of “Let My Country Awake: Indian Revolutionaries in America and the Fight to Overthrow the British Raj,” on the overlooked history of the U.S.-based movement opposing British colonialism in India. |
|
|
|---|
|
 | | | What Happened: On October 30, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. The first meeting between the two leaders in Trump’s second term is already overshadowing the APEC summit itself, as well as the numerous other sideline meetings set to take place. The world is watching to see whether Trump and Xi agree to formalize a working-level arrangement ironed out by their officials – in effect, a temporary truce in the China-U.S. trade war. | Our Focus: Since Trump’s “Liberation Day,” China and the U.S. have traded retaliatory actions. For the U.S., that’s meant massive tariffs on Chinese goods, coupled with tightening restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. Beijing retaliated with tit-for-tat tariffs escalations as well as a new slate of restrictions on exports of rare earths and critical inputs made from those materials. Both sides understand the severe costs of continuing down this path. “Ultimately, neither side can hope to ‘win’ this confrontation outright,” writes Jianli Yang for The Diplomat. “The goal, at least for now, is to manage it – to transform an unstable confrontation into a stable rivalry.” | What Comes Next: Any truce announced at the Trump-Xi meeting will be temporary, like the numerous “agreements” reached since April, only to fade away. Both leaders are playing for time. Xi needs space to implement his “self-reliance” push, especially on critical technologies, until China can reach a point where it’s no longer reliant on U.S. exports. Meanwhile, Trump also needs time to build up alternative supply chains to counter China’s dominance of rare earths. For the rest of the world, even a short-term reprieve would be welcome. “A fragile truce emerging from Gyeongju would not solve the structural rifts,” Yang concludes, “but it could prevent escalation while both countries recalibrate their domestic priorities.” | Find out more |
|
|
|---|
|
| VIDEOS |  |
|
|
|
|---|
|
| | We’re proud to announce the launch of our new YouTube channel, Diplomat Asia, where we explain major topics and trends in the Asia-Pacific in video form. Check out our latest video on the history and purpose of ASEAN, and whether the grouping is up to the challenges of the 21st century. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| BEHIND THE NEWS |  |
|
|
|
|---|
|
| | Scott Miller, author of “Let My Country Awake: Indian Revolutionaries in America and the Fight to Overthrow the British Raj,” on how a group of U.S.-based activists attempted to organize a revolution in India in the early 20th century: “When World War I began, Chandra jumped at the opportunity to launch armed revolution and held numerous rallies up and down the [U.S.] West Coast, where he urged Indian working men to return to India to fight [again British rule].” | |
|
|
|---|
|
| | U.S. President Donald Trump is making his first visit to Asia since starting his second term. That includes stops in two major U.S. allies: Japan and South Korea. In Tokyo, Trump held his first summit with Japan’s new prime minister, Takaichi Sanae – in office for all of one week – as well as an audience with the emperor. In South Korea, Trump will meet again with President Lee Jae-myung (who visited the White House in August). In both meetings, the primary focus is on finalizing details of trade deals hashed out earlier and handling Trump’s consistent demands for Japan and South Korea to pay more for their own defense. Also worth watching are the potential sideline summits: a Lee-Takaichi meeting; a trilateral summit between the Japanese, South Korean, and U.S. leaders; and maybe even a handshake between Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in Panmunjom. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| | India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose not to attend the ASEAN summit and related meetings in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from October 26 to 28. Instead, he delivered a virtual address to the ASEAN summit, and let S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, lead the Indian delegation at the East Asia Summit on October 27. Modi’s decision to skip the ASEAN Summit ruled out the possibility of a face-to-face meeting between Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump. India-U.S. tensions are riding high over Trump’s tariffs as well as his persistent claims to have mediated a peace between India and Pakistan. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| | Malaysia this week hosted the 47th ASEAN Summit and a host of other related multilateral meetings in Kuala Lumpur. The summit was among the highest-profile in recent years, with world leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae in attendance, as well as leaders from South Korea, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, and Australia. The first day of the summit on October 26 was dominated by the long-awaited accession of Timor-Leste, which became the Southeast Asian bloc’s 11th member state. This was somewhat overshadowed by the presence of Trump, who presided over a “peace accord” between Cambodia and Thailand before jetting off to Japan. The summits also saw the usual slew of meetings between the bloc and its main dialogue partners, including the signing on October 28 of an upgraded free trade agreement between ASEAN and China. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| | The Kyrgyz government's long-running campaign against investigative media outlets Kloop and Temirov Live has hit a new, dark, low with a court in the country's capital declaring them – and popular Temirov Live project Ait, Ait Dese – to be extremist. Management at the outlets say they were not informed of the case, nor do they know specifically what material earned them such a dramatic designation. It's the first time a media outlet in Kyrgyzstan has been designated as extremist. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| PODCASTS |  |
|
|
|
|---|
|
| | In the latest episode of “Asia Geopolitics,” Yuki Tatsumi, a longtime contributor to The Diplomat and a senior director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security (IIPS), joins Katie Putz to discuss the recent upheavals in Japanese domestic politics, including the decline of the LDP and the implications of new leadership under Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| VISUALIZING APAC |  |
|
|
|
|---|
|
| |  |
| Hong Kong LGBTQ activist Jimmy Sham attended the Taiwan Pride Parade after being released from prison over a national security case. Notably, Hong Kong's own Pride events have been forced to go online-only. Photo by Kelly Yu. | |
|
|
|---|
|
| WORD OF THE WEEK |  |
|
|
|
|---|
|
| | Delhi na Dhaka? (Bengali for "Delhi or Dhaka?") has become a protest slogan, rhetorically asking whether Bangladesh's government should be beholden to India or pursue an independent course. | |
|
|
|---|
|
|
Comments
Post a Comment
Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.