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Geopolitical Monitor

"China-India rapprochement and its strategic implications for Afghanistan."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 19 October 2025, 2153 UTC.

URL--https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/

Please check URL or scroll down to read your selections.  Thanks for joining us today.

Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

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China–India Rapprochement and Its Strategic Implications for Afghanistan

cc Jerome Starkey, modified, The Chinese state owned mining company MCC have built a camp at Mes Ainak, 35km south of Kabul, while archeologists are racing to excavate a series of ancient Buddhist monasteries before the bulldozers roll in. The Afghan government is desperate for the copper royalites, once mining starts, but officials familiar with the deal said the Chinise, having secured the rights to the deposit, appear to be in no hurry to start exploiting it. They are supposed to build a railway and a power station, but have not started either. / https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeromestarkey/6349904680

Shifts in Asian geopolitics are creating new opportunities for Afghanistan, but administrative and security challenges must be overcome for Kabul to take full advantage of them.

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2025 KMT Chair Race: Balancing Peace and Peril in Taiwan

English: Supporters of KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou attend a rally on Taipei’s Ketagalan Blvd. on Jan. 8, 2012. 中文: 中華民國第十三任總統、副總統選舉中國國民黨101年1月8日在台北市凱達格蘭大道舉辦「為台灣讚出來」造勢活動,現場吸引大批支持的民眾。(郝振泰攝), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:KMT-Anhaenger.jpg

The 2025 KMT chair race is not just an internal power struggle. It is a mirror reflecting Taiwan’s broader dilemma between peace and peril.

How Pakistan Revived Its Geopolitical Positioning

President Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan , modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-meets-with-prime-minister-shehbaz-sharif-and-field-marshal-asim-munir-of-pakistan/

Pakistan has been able to thread the needle between two superpowers despite cascading political and economic crisis at home. Here’s how Islamabad is pulling it off.

 Soy Hints at Power Shift in US-China Trade War

soy-10-15-2025-970 copy

China has spent years reducing reliance on US soy producers, and these efforts are now starting to resonate in the power dynamics underpinning US-China trade tensions.

Bilateral European Cooperation Recasts Transatlantic and Regional Security

Paris, France. Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets French President Emmanuel Macron for a bilateral meeting at the Elysee. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, modified, cc Number 10, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Prime_Minister_Keir_Starmer_meets_President_Emmanuel_Macron_%2853956389020%29.jpg

As Europe moves toward greater strategic autonomy, some of the best progress is happening in ad-hoc bilateral arrangements that are able to remain agile outside of EU institutions.

Márquez’s “Chronicle of a Death Foretold” Mirrored in Global Politics

Generated by ChatGPT on October 15, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Márquez reminded us that even the foretold can be undone by a single act of conscience. The question is whether the global community, having rehearsed its own tragedy for so long, can similarly improvise a different ending.

Trump Dreams of Bagram’s Geopolitical Reemergence

cc USGOV-PD, modified, English: A C-5 Galaxy takes off from a runway at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan. In recent years, the 22nd Airlift Squadron has participated in missions in Afghanistan supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:22d_Airlift_Squadron_C-5_taking_off_from_Bagram_Air_Base_Afghanistan.jpg

A return of the Bagram Air Base remains highly unlikely, but movement in this direction reflects a tentative warming in US-Afghan ties.

Drone Warfare Over Sudan: The “Siege from the Air”

Generated by ChatGPT on October 14, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Drone warfare continues to evolve in Sudan in ways that blur culpability and maximize civilian suffering, ultimately putting an end to the civil war further out-of-sight.

Cheap, Accurate, Lethal: Laser-Guided Rockets Are Reshaping Global Air Defense

The Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS), which adds a laser guidance system to unguided rockets. Image: US Marine Corps/Lance Cpl. Cody J. Ohira

Conventional air defense has been disrupted in an age of drone warfare, where sophisticated and expensive systems risk being overwhelmed by mass strikes. But military and civilian authorities are now beginning to adapt on the defensive side, and a new equilibrium is forming.

 Geopolitics Weekly (Ecuador ‘Assassination,’ Taiwan Missile Defense, UN Peacekeeping)

GeopoliticsWeeklyHeader

This week we cover an alleged assassination attempt against Ecuador’s president, global ramifications in the UN’s peacekeeping budget crunch, and the unveiling of Taiwan’s answer to the Iron Dome.

 China’s PLA Navy: A Peer Competitor Emerges

Generated by Google Gemini AI on September 24, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Examining the force structure, doctrine, and capabilities of China’s PLA Navy after decades of modernization and rapid shipbuilding.

Nusantara and the Future of Indonesian Democracy

cc pkp.go.id, modified, Ministry of Housing and Residential Areas of the Republic of Indonesia / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Government_Residential_Area_in_Nusantara.png

If executed well, Indonesia’s new capital could become a symbol of democratic renewal, showing that even large projects can be people-focused, environmentally sustainable, and transparent.

 Drone Warfare in Ukraine: The Fight for Air Littoral Control

A drone postage stamp in Ukraine, modified, cc Roysma, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stamp_of_Ukraine_s2081.jpg

The fight for control of the air littoral is a pivotal domain in the Ukraine war, one where success brings advantages in battlefield awareness, artillery suppression, maneuverability, and attrition. It represents an entirely new paradigm, and it is changing the face of modern warfare.

Uganda 2026 Elections: Democracy at a Crossroads

cc Lawrence Kitatta, modified, A Ugandan Military police officer enforcing Covid19 rules chasing a journalist who was covering Bobi Wine when he had taken a petition to the UN human rights Kampala office protesting continued human rights violations and the illegal detention of his supporters.

As Uganda President Musevini prepares to contest his seventh consecutive term in 2026, allegations of corruption, political violence, and election tampering cast a long shadow over Uganda’s democratic future.

When Trump Closes Doors, China Opens Windows

Presidente do Brasil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, e Secretário-Geral do Partido Comunista da China, Xi Jinping. / cc Palácio do Planalto from Brasilia, Brasil, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:14.04.2023_-_Cerim%C3%B4nia_Oficial_de_Recep%C3%A7%C3%A3o_%2852819162919%29.jpg

As states aggressively design “Plan B” channels for funding, standards, and dispute resolution that do not presume US leadership or even US participation, China is swiftly filling the vacuum.

 China-Taiwan Conflict: The Historical View from Taiwan

cc Zairon, modified, Flag of the Republic of China in front of the roof of Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall, Taipei City, Taiwan. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Taipei_Democracy_Memorial_Park_Chiang_Kai-shek_Memorial_Dach.jpg

To understand the China-Taiwan conflict, one must first understand the histories involved. This article explores how thousands of years of migration, domination, and upheaval gave rise to the nuanced complexities of modern Taiwanese identity.

From Doha to Riyadh: How Israel’s Strike Sparked the Saudi–Pakistan Defense Pact

Shehbaz Shariff of Pakistan, modified, cc kremlin.ru, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74458

Israel’s strike on Doha may have intended to pressure Hamas, but it inadvertently triggered something larger: a reordering of Gulf security.

Geopolitics Weekly (Iran Water Crisis, New Japan PM, US Missile Stockpiles)

GeopoliticsWeeklyHeader

This week we cover a shocking plan to move Iran’s capital due to water scarcity, a new right-wing prime minister taking over in Japan, further warming in US-Pakistan relations, and new efforts by the Pentagon to shore up US missile stockpiles.

Kurds: Dream of Independence, Settle for Autonomy

cc Flickr Kurdistan, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/kurdistan4all/3349984068

With practical considerations putting the dream of an independent state increasingly out of reach for Kurdish people in the Middle East, many groups are recalibrating their goals toward greater autonomy.

Nepal Between Giants: India–China Rivalry in the Himalayas

Generated by Google Gemini AI on October 1, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

For India, Nepal is a shield above its most vulnerable frontier; for China, it is a gateway into the subcontinent. Caught in between, Nepal’s fragility is never just its own; it is the fault line where two giants meet.

 Taiwan in Japan’s Strategic Perspective: Gateway to Tokyo’s Backyard

cc 海上自衛隊, modified, 訓練中の海自隊員 / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JS_Bungo_and_JS_Etajima_conducted_goodwill_exercise_with_Seychelles_patrol_vessel_PS_Andromache_on_24_March_2025_off_the_coast_of_Victoria_-_5.jpg

Taiwan matters to Japan: economically, diplomatically, and strategically. But while Tokyo cannot detach itself from Taiwan’s fate, neither can it afford to become too tightly bound to outcomes it does not control.

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