Semafor Flagship Newsletter

"Iran sanctions snap back, Russia bombs Kyiv, U.S.-Venezuela tensions rise."

 Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 28 September 2025, 2212 UTC.

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QOM  HARBIN  TAIPEI CITY September 29, 2025 Read on the web Flagship Sign up for our free email briefings→   The World Today Iran sanctions snap back Russia bombards Kyiv US-Venezuela tensions rise Xi’s ultimate prize AGI could hinder AI goals EU illegal migration falls The politics of faith Space Force finds footing AI vs. radiologists Evolution history challenged A new theory on one of the world’s most famous medieval texts. ↓ 1 UN reimposes sanctions on Iran Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images The UN reimposed bruising economic and military sanctions on Iran over accusations that the country reneged on a 2015 nuclear deal. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, activated by European nations, could deepen Iran’s economic isolation, perhaps triggering the gravest crisis facing Tehran in decades, Reuters wrote. “Our people cannot handle more economic pressure or another war,” one Iranian official said. Iran has seen rising public discontent over ballooning food prices, and the new sanctions will only add to those tensions. Some analysts predict the measures could push Tehran to take a tougher nuclear stance, but the lingering threat of US and Israeli attacks gives Iran’s leaders limited strategic flexibility. ↓ 2 Russia bombards Kyiv in lengthy attack Thomas Peter/Reuters Russia bombarded Ukraine on Sunday in an attack that lasted for more than 12 hours and killed at least four people in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the assault was further evidence of the need for more international sanctions on Moscow and to cut off its energy revenues; last week he warned world leaders that Russia is preparing to attack another European country. NATO is on high alert — the alliance launched fighter jets during Russia’s latest strikes on Kyiv — but Ukraine’s greatest weakness “still lies in the minds of its western friends,” a historian argued in the Financial Times: “Russian strategy seeks to outflank the Ukrainian position by attacking the will of the Americans and Europeans.” ↓ 3 US-Venezuela military tensions swell Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters Venezuela is reportedly bracing for a possible US military attack as tensions with Washington escalate. The Trump administration in recent weeks has sent warships to the Caribbean and blown up three boats from Venezuela allegedly carrying drugs. The White House has also signaled clear interest in removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. As US President Donald Trump’s tone has become increasingly aggressive toward Caracas, a US special envoy who tried to strike a more conciliatory note has been sidelined, Semafor reported. The US is preparing options to strike drug targets inside the South American country, according to NBC News. Caracas, meanwhile, is arming a civilian militia, further raising the specter of a direct conflict. ↓ 4 Xi to push Trump on Taiwan KCNA via Reuters Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to push US President Donald Trump to publicly align with Beijing against Taiwan’s independence, The Wall Street Journal reported. As trade talks progress and the two men gear up for an in-person meeting, Xi reportedly sees formal US opposition to Taiwanese sovereignty as the “ultimate prize.” Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province it will eventually absorb, and driving a wedge between Washington and Taipei would both undermine Taiwan and bolster China’s leverage over the island, analysts said. The push comes as anxiety grows that China is preparing to invade Taiwan: A recent analysis found that Russia is selling equipment and technology to China that could support a future aerial attack. ↓ 5 Chasing AGI could backfire for US To win the AI race against China, the US needs to emphasize practical, real-world applications of the technology, two analysts argued in Foreign Policy. While Washington and Silicon Valley have become entranced by the idea of superintelligent AI, or artificial general intelligence, China has focused on steady, iterative progress and widespread adoption, especially in robotics. Speaking on a recent tech podcast, chipmaker Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang said China is “nanoseconds behind” the US on AI, helped by its massive manufacturing infrastructure. By the same token, the US needs to invest in AI adoption and scaling just as much, if not more than, in AGI, the analysts wrote: “Racing toward a myth is not sound policy.” ↓ 6 Illegal immigration down in Europe Europe has seen a substantial drop in illegal immigration this year as the continent pursues a widespread crackdown beyond its borders. The continent’s 52% decrease in irregular crossings during the first eight months of 2025 compared to 2023 is the result of “harsh policies far from its beaches,” The Economist wrote. The EU built a “big, invisible wall” by striking deals with foreign governments to intercept migrants en route — a strategy that has sparked criticism over the abuse of migrants. The clampdown mirrors the decline in illegal entries into the US during President Donald Trump’s second term, which has been marked by a staunch anti-migrant drive; Trump most recently deployed federal troops to Portland, Oregon to protect immigration agents there. ↓ 7 Religion in politics faces a crossroads Carlos Barria/Reuters The American right’s reaction to activist Charlie Kirk’s murder reflects ideas of spiritual warfare, two writers argued, putting Christianity’s role in US politics at a crossroads. Conservative leaders have hailed Kirk as a martyr, using increasingly aggressive language underpinned with religious themes to galvanize supporters. It tracks with the growing New Apostolic Reformation movement, which sees its mission “as a cosmic battle against the forces of evil,” The Atlantic’s Stephanie McCrummen argued. Some evangelicals, however, advocate for a gentler politics, and it remains unclear how the broader Christian community will respond, The New Yorker’s Michael Luo wrote. “Will they see it as their duty to don the armor of God, as soldiers, or will they feel called to a different approach?” ↓ Live Journalism AI is set to transform the world, but who will control its direction? While the US debates AI regulation, the EU and China are already implementing frameworks that could shape the global AI landscape for decades. With tech giants racing toward artificial superintelligence, a question dominates: What safeguards will keep humanity in control? Join Semafor Monday, Sept. 29 in Washington, DC as Semafor editors sit down with Sen. Mark Kelly, D-AZ, to discuss the most critical policy challenge of our time. Sept. 29, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation → ↓ 8 US Space Force finds its footing Nearly six years after its creation, the US Space Force is finally finding its footing. The first new branch of the US Armed Forces since the Air Force in 1947, the service has struggled to gain respect from the public or the Pentagon: It accounts for only 4% of the defense budget, has just 15,000 personnel, and was satirized in a Netflix comedy series starring Steve Carell. Yet increasingly, it is “a vital part of the American war machine,” The Washington Post noted, as the US races to maintain a lead over Russian and Chinese space warfare capabilities. The force ran its largest-ever combat training exercise in July, testing its ability to detect and counter threats in orbit. ↓ 9 Is the AI job apocalypse real? IMAGO/HalfPoint Images via Reuters Connect AI’s failure to replace radiologists — so far — may have lessons for the wider economy. In 2016, AI researcher Geoffrey Hinton said hospitals “should stop training radiologists” because the technology would make the discipline obsolete. Yet demand for radiologists is at an all-time high: AI is simply less effective in the real world than in tests, and radiologists’ jobs involve much more than diagnostics. Analyst Deena Mousa argued in Works in Progress that as AI makes some tasks faster and cheaper, demand for that task often increases, leading to more rather than less work for humans. “Many of the more sophisticated knowledge jobs look… like radiology,” she wrote, challenging at least near-term predictions of an AI job apocalypse. ↓ 10 Skull could rewrite human history An artist’s impression of H. longi. Jiannan Bai and Xijun Ni/Handout via Reuters A million-year-old skull discovered in China could rewrite the history of human evolution. A new analysis of the skull published in Science suggests that our species may have emerged half a million years earlier than we thought. If so, then that also means we co-existed with Neanderthals for far longer than previously believed. The skull appears to have belonged to an early hominin species called Homo longi, which genetic evidence indicates lived alongside Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. If H. longi was around a million years ago, the researchers argued, then early H. sapiens likely was, too. Paleoanthropology is notoriously contentious, and other experts in the field told the BBC that while the theory is plausible, it needs more evidence to be confirmed. ↓ Flagging Sept. 29: The foreign ministers of Poland, France, and Germany deliver a joint press statement in Warsaw following Russian incursions into NATO airspace. The Moldovan election commission announces the final results in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. Paris Fashion Week for spring and summer 2026 begins. ↓ Curio Hulton Archive/Getty Images A new theory challenges the origin story of one of the world’s most famous medieval texts. Renowned for its exquisite illustrations and calligraphy, The Book of Kells has long been believed to have originated on the island of Iona in the Scottish Hebrides, before moving to Ireland in the 9th century. But a new theory suggests the book may have emerged from a Pictish monastery in Portmahomack, on Scotland’s northeast coast. The monastery’s productions stand out as “exceptionally literate and book-orientated,” whereas works traced to Iona tended to “plainness and legibility,” the academic Victoria Whitworth argued. Because there are no surviving manuscripts formally credited to the Picts, Whitworth’s thesis complicates a long-held view of the group as “remote and backward,” The Guardian wrote. ↓ Semafor Spotlight The Signal Interview: Starbucks’ CEO is trying to return the coffee chain to its roots. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for briefings from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here. Read our privacy policy.