Trends in Geopolitics-Semafor Flagship.

"Trump not firing Powell, Nvidia CEO praises China, Trump-MAGA split."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 17 July 2025, 0047 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

MBABANE  DAMASCUS  SHANGHAI July 17, 2025 Read on the web Flagship Sign up for our free email briefings→   The World Today Trump not firing Powell Nvidia CEO praises China Trump-MAGA split ‘Third country’ deportations Syria-Druze ceasefire LatAm’s own ChatGPT Underwater data center Dutch ditch wind goal Online age restrictions Soviet-style censorship The world’s oldest psychiatric hospital showcases art created by former patients. ↓ 1 Trump denies Powell firing reports US President Donald Trump said he wasn’t planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, after reports of an imminent termination triggered market turmoil. Stocks plunged, Treasury bonds sold off, and the dollar weakened following reports that Trump drafted a letter to fire Powell and asked Republican lawmakers for their opinion — the market reaction was “presumably the exact opposite of what Trump is hoping for economically,” Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said. Trump later said a removal is “highly unlikely,” though he renewed criticism of Powell for not cutting interest rates. Wall Street stabilized, but the swings showed how any attempt to fire Powell could trigger a “revolt in global markets, including a possible collapse in the dollar and US bonds,” CNN wrote. Subscribe to Semafor’s Business briefing for more on the market reaction to Trump’s policies. → ↓ 2 Nvidia’s balancing act in China Florence Lo/Reuters Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang heaped praise on China’s technological advancements during a visit to Beijing on Wednesday, but treaded carefully when discussing geopolitics. The head of the world’s most valuable company received a rockstar reception on the trip, which came a day after the US allowed Nvidia to resume selling one of its high-powered chips to China. But Huang downplayed his role in lobbying US President Donald Trump to green light the sales, and distanced himself from recent Chinese export controls, The New York Times reported. Even as Huang notches this win, the constantly shifting geopolitical winds mean Nvidia could again find itself weaponized in future US-China spats, The Wall Street Journal wrote. ↓ 3 Epstein case marks Trump-MAGA rift Ken Cedeno/Reuters The Jeffrey Epstein case is exposing a stunning rift between US President Donald Trump and his MAGA base, prominent commentators noted. Trump wants supporters to move on from conspiracy theories surrounding the deceased sex offender after authorities said there’s no evidence of Epstein’s “client list” or that he was murdered in jail. The revolt against Trump by a faction that he has long controlled is “one of the more shocking political events of recent times,” The Atlantic’s Peter Wehner wrote. It’s not the only split: The president is diverging from his flock by turning conciliatory toward China and antagonistic toward Russia, in signs that Trump and MAGA “are no longer the same thing,” the Financial Times’ Janan Ganesh argued. ↓ 4 US resumes third country deportations The US resumed deportation flights to so-called “third countries” after the Supreme Court cleared the way for the controversial practice. Five migrants from five different countries were flown on Tuesday to the small Southern African nation of Eswatini. The Donald Trump administration has previously sent deportees to El Salvador and South Sudan as part of its intensifying immigration crackdown, drawing scrutiny and legal challenges. It’s not unheard of for governments to deport people to countries they aren’t from: Australia sends asylum seekers to offshore processing facilities in Pacific island nations, and the UK’s previous government struck a similar deal with Rwanda. But that plan cost more than $900 million, and only a total of four migrants were transferred. ↓ 5 Syria, Druze minority announce truce Khalil Ashawi/Reuters The Syrian government and leaders of the Druze religious minority announced a new ceasefire Wednesday, after days of clashes that also drew in Israel. The announcement came shortly after Israel launched air attacks on the Syrian Defense Ministry and areas near the presidential palace — rare strikes in the heart of Damascus. The violence comes as Syria’s new leaders attempt to assert control over the country following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December, but deep sectarian divisions remain: More than 250 people were killed this week after clashes broke out between Bedouin tribespeople and Druze militias; Israel had warned Damascus that it would not tolerate harm to the Druze, many of whom live in Israel. ↓ 6 ‘Latam-GPT’ adapts to local dialects Juan Gonzalez/Reuters More than 30 Latin American institutions are collaborating to build their version of ChatGPT, trained on local languages and nuances. Artificial intelligence chatbots made by US firms are available in other languages, but their Spanish-language capabilities are largely powered by data that is from Spain or translated from English text, which can lead to inaccuracies, Rest of World wrote. The Chile-led “Latam-GPT” project is trained on text from local schools, libraries, and historical documents, and is designed to include Indigenous languages and dialect variations. Latin America has been seen as slow to adapt to AI; researchers in Southeast Asia, East Africa, and India have already pushed forward with efforts to tailor AI to their populations and languages. ↓ 7 China builds underwater data center CCTV/YouTube China is building an underwater data center to reduce cooling costs. Demand for computing power is skyrocketing with the growth of artificial intelligence, but cooling the facilities requires huge amounts of water. In China and elsewhere, water supplies are already strained by demand from agriculture and human consumption, and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. China began constructing the underwater data center about six miles off Shanghai in June, Scientific American reported, and it is set to begin operations in September after first being proposed two and a half years ago. Microsoft began a similar project a decade ago, but has reportedly shelved it. If the Shanghai project is successful, its makers plan to move rapidly to a larger-scale rollout. ↓ 8 Netherlands lowers offshore wind goal Yves Herman/Reuters The Netherlands slashed its offshore wind power generation goal by up to 40%, marking the latest setback for the sector. Offshore wind costs have grown in recent years; the Dutch climate minister called the previous target of 50 gigawatts by 2040 “not realistic.” The pivot reflects how the industry, while on the verge of a rebound, is vulnerable to supply chain constraints and price changes. The outlook in the US is especially bleak for offshore wind: Republicans’ tax-and-spending bill passed this month curtailed tax credits for the projects, leaving no room for them to be affordable. “It could be years before new offshore wind projects materialize in the US,” Semafor’s climate editor wrote this week. For more climate and energy insights, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero briefing. → ↓ 9 Online age gating gains momentum US senators discuss age verification at a Semafor event. The European Union is testing an age-verification app, a sign that online age gating is drawing closer. France recently approved a law requiring social media platforms to verify ages and obtain parental consent for under-15s, and several EU countries are pushing for bloc-wide measures to mandate age verification. Two US senators told Semafor on Wednesday that children under 13 should be barred from using social media. Tech companies have pushed back, often on privacy grounds — laws in some US states have led to major porn sites withdrawing from those markets — but the tide may be starting to turn: Reddit will roll out age verification in the UK, with users required to upload a selfie or government ID to view certain content. For more news out of Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s Principals briefing. → ↓ 10 Russia open to Soviet-style censorship Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via Reuters Moscow is debating a return to Soviet-style censorship. Mikhail Shvydkoy, a theater critic and ally of President Vladimir Putin, recently argued that the art and literature of the USSR proved that the censor’s stamp, permitting approved works, was compatible with creativity. It would be, he wrote, more honest than the current system requiring creators to follow legal codes and face punishment for breaking them. There are already major restrictions on free speech in Russia, The Bell noted — it is effectively illegal, for instance, to describe some recent tax increases as “tax increases.” But there are no formal pre-publication censors. The publication of Shvydkoy’s piece suggests that the Kremlin has given its tacit backing to, at least, explore changing that. ↓ Flagging July 17: TSMC, Novartis, and US Bancorp report second-quarter earnings. South Korea’s Supreme Court delivers the final verdict in Samsung Electronics chair Lee Jae-yong’s trial on charges of price manipulation and accounting fraud. The International Centre for the Image, a new visual arts space, opens in Dublin. ↓ Curio Charlotte Johnson-Wahl, “Ask and Get No Reassurance” (1974). Bethlem Museum of the Mind An upcoming exhibition at the world’s oldest psychiatric hospital showcases art inspired by patients’ dreams and nightmares. Opening in August at the UK’s Bethlem Museum of the Mind, Between Sleeping and Waking features art from the 19th century to the present: One work, drawn by an arsonist held in the “criminal lunatic department” between 1829 to 1838, shows a “mad pen-and-ink depiction” of London’s “destruction due to godlessness,” The Guardian wrote. Another exhibitor is former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s late mother who created dozens of paintings during her eight months at Bethlem’s sister institution: “I couldn’t talk about my problems, but I could paint them,” Charlotte Johnson-Wahl said later. ↓ Semafor Spotlight At Our Table The search for a liberal Joe Rogan has led Democrats to an unlikely candidate: Jaime Harrison, their former party chair, Semafor’s David Weigel reported. “Civic education in America is at an all time low,” Harrison told Weigel days before the launch of his new podcast, At Our Table. The first episodes put Harrison next to 2024 vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, South Carolina kingmaker (and Harrison mentor) Rep. James Clyburn — and Hunter Biden, the prodigal former First Son who has not spoken out since his father ended his last presidential bid. “I thought it would be really interesting to pull back the curtain so that people got a chance to understand who he is,” Harrison told Weigel. Subscribe to Semafor Americana: The insider’s guide to American power. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for briefings from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here. Read our privacy policy. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. Semafor, Inc. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 59081, New York, NY, 10003-1502, USA