Semafor Flagship: The World Today.

"Israel's new Gaza push, Russia intensifies drone strikes, Stellantis takes tariff hit."

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The World Today Israel’s new Gaza push Russia intensifies drone strikes Stellantis takes tariff hit White House vs. Fed White House vs. Harvard Xi’s changing leadership China’s nuclear fusion wins Polymarket returns to US India census challenge Unified theory of mathematics The legacy of an iconic Tokyo building that was demolished lives on.

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1 Israel deepens Gaza offensive Khamis Al-Rifi/Reuters Israel on Monday launched an air and ground offensive into the only Gaza city that had not seen major military operations or devastation since the war began. Deir al-Balah is a humanitarian hub, and there is speculation that Hamas has been holding Israeli hostages there. The incursion comes a day after the Israeli military reportedly killed dozens of Palestinians seeking food. The UK, Japan, and several European nations were among 25 countries on Monday that condemned Israel’s actions in a statement notable for its candor, the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent wrote. The nations threatened further action to secure a ceasefire — code for recognizing a Palestinian state — a point of leverage that the UK and France have considered but not yet pulled.

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2 Russia’s record drone hit rate Serhii Korovainyi/Reuters The scale and success of Russia’s ongoing drone strikes on Ukraine reflects Moscow’s ability to penetrate Kyiv’s defenses. Over the past few months, Russia’s drones are striking targets at three times the usual rate, according to a Financial Times analysis of official data, demonstrating “how cheap mass can overwhelm even sophisticated and layered air defences.” Amid Moscow’s escalating attacks, Kyiv has introduced a “Test in Ukraine” scheme, offering foreign arms manufacturers a chance to test their latest weapons on the front lines: It would give defense companies real-world feedback on their products’ capabilities while providing Ukrainian forces with a new supply of weapons on the battlefield. High on Ukraine’s testing wishlist are air defense systems like drone interceptors, Reuters reported.

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3 Stellantis says tariffs dented profits Zorana Jevtic/Reuters Auto giant Stellantis estimated it lost $2.7 billion in the first half of this year, as tariffs begin to eat into profit margins at large firms. The Netherlands-based company, which owns car brands including Jeep, Dodge, and Fiat, said it took a $350 million hit from US President Donald Trump’s duties specifically. Analysts and investors are closely watching corporate earnings reports this week for signs of the trade war’s impact. Despite the risks — an EY-Parthenon study found geopolitical and economic uncertainty has erased more than $300 billion from global businesses’ profits since 2017 — markets appear unfazed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs Monday, while US consumer spending is holding up.

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4 Trump administration ramps up Fed scrutiny The White House escalated its conflict with the US Federal Reserve, with the Treasury secretary on Monday calling for a review of the “entire” central bank. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not lowering interest rates, but the latest scrutiny surrounds its $2.5 billion building renovation. Some Republicans have suggested the costly project could be an opportunity to oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but others in Trump’s circle have reportedly sought to deter the president by highlighting the legal obstacles and market reaction he could face. Trump’s frustration could grow as more central banks around the world — facing weaker growth and lower inflation as a result of tariffs — are forecast to cut interest rates this year, Bloomberg reported. For more news out of Washington, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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5 Judge skeptical of Harvard funding cuts Brian Snyder/Reuters A US judge raised questions Monday over the legality of the Donald Trump administration’s cuts to Harvard University’s research funding. During a hearing, the university argued the funding freeze is unconstitutional, while the White House contended the school has allowed antisemitism to fester on its campus. While the judge is yet to issue a ruling, she pushed back on the administration’s claims that concerns around antisemitism justified the cuts. Trump has made Harvard central to his effort to reshape American higher education; his administration also recently served subpoenas to the Ivy League school for records on international students. Trump-style populists have long “thrilled at the prospect of humbling elite universities,” The Atlantic wrote in a recent profile of Harvard’s president.

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6 Subtle changes in Xi’s leadership Agustin Marcarian/File Photo/Reuters Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s governing style appears to be changing, analysts said, after he retreated from public view in recent months. Xi skipped the BRICS summit for the first time in 12 years, and he has been making fewer appearances. That spurred frenzied speculation over Xi’s hold on power. But such conjecture appears overblown: State media coverage “reveals no such decline in Xi’s prominence,” China Media Project reported. Rather, Xi’s leadership approach is subtly shifting, The Economist wrote, as he relies less on various commissions that he once strengthened to dominate the bureaucracy. A party confab next month will showcase Xi’s “success in remaking the party’s top ranks: the old guard are dead, senile or sidelined and loyalists reign.”

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7 US, China in nuclear fusion race A Chinese nuclear reactor known as the China Circulation 3. CFOTO/Sipa USA China is investing heavily to win the race for nuclear fusion. Existing nuclear plants work by smashing big atoms apart; fusion squishes small atoms together, in the same process that powers stars. It promises limitless clean energy, but has always been decades away. Recent breakthroughs, including sustaining a 100 million degrees Celsius reaction for 18 minutes in a Chinese lab, raise the possibility of commercial fusion within a decade. Countries are pouring money into it, but China is spending by far the most. If fusion funding shrinks in the US, China “may well jump ahead,” an analyst told The Wire China, and American research has been hampered by regulations designed for riskier fission plants. As data center power demand rises, fusion could be transformative.

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Plug Stay informed with Foreign Affairs This Week — a free roundup of the week’s top articles curated by the editors of Foreign Affairs, delivered every Friday. From global insights to must-read analysis, it’s the smartest way to end your week. Sign up today and stay ahead of the conversation.

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8 Polymarket returns to US Charles Guerin/ABACAPRESS.COM Crypto betting platform Polymarket struck a deal to return to the US, three years after being booted from the country. The predictions marketplace bought a small derivatives exchange and clearinghouse for $112 million, allowing it to legally return. Polymarket was thrust into the mainstream during the 2024 presidential election, though only non-US users were allowed to bet on who would win. The acquisition could allow Polymarket to operate on US dollars rather than crypto blockchain, Front Office Sports reported, amid a broader surge in prediction markets’ popularity. Just weeks ago, federal prosecutors shut down a probe into Polymarket, a regulatory U-turn that marked the Donald Trump administration’s efforts to boost the crypto industry and reverse Biden-era scrutiny.

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9 Isolated tribe adds to India census challenge The task of accounting for the world’s most isolated indigenous tribe adds to the challenges surrounding India’s much-delayed census. For an estimated 60,000 years, the Sentinelese have lived in seclusion on an island in the Bay of Bengal that is part of Indian territory. Authorities don’t know how many people live there, but reaching out for census purposes is “not an option” given the Sentinelese’s hostility to outsiders, an anthropologist told Nikkei, adding that India may have to use satellite imagery or drones to estimate their population. The census for the world’s most populous country, meant to begin in 2021, has also been beset by controversy: The exercise will record caste data for the first time since India’s independence.

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10 A breakthrough in abstract math A landmark proof brought a “grand unified theory of mathematics” closer to reality. The Langlands program seeks to discover deep connections between number theory, the study of integers, and harmonic analysis, the mathematics of frequencies and oscillations. The problem has attracted the greatest mathematical minds for 60 years: The proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem was a special case. A team of mathematicians proved a sub-problem, the geometric Langlands conjecture, which establishes that certain geometric objects mirror the mysterious correspondences predicted between number theory and harmonic analysis. The proof suggests these two seemingly unrelated areas share a “secret unity” that could reshape mathematics, researchers told Nature.

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Flagging July 22: The World Trade Organization kicks off a two-day general council meeting in Geneva. The Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics begins in Washington. The Earth will rotate faster, shortening the day by a near-record 1.34 milliseconds.

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Curio Stanislav Kogiku/SOPA Images/Sipa USA The legacy of an iconic Tokyo building demolished in 2022 lives on in New York’s Museum of Modern Art. The Many Lives of the Nakagin Capsule Tower dives into the history of Japanese architect Kisho Kurokawa’s 1972 structure that was imagined as a dynamic system in which 140 micro-dwellings could be swapped out and repurposed into tea rooms, libraries, galleries, dorm rooms, or DJ booths as needs changed. The tower epitomized Japan’s avant garde Metabolism movement that envisioned cities and buildings as constantly adapting over time. A fully restored unit from the top floor is on display at the MoMA — only one of 14 worldwide to be reassembled — ensuring the “rare physical survival of a building long dismissed as unmaintainable,” Designboom wrote.

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Semafor Spotlight Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters OpenAI is opening its first Washington, DC, office, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti scooped. The space, which the company is dubbing “The Workshop,” will be a place for policymakers, educators, and nonprofits to try out OpenAI’s current tools and get early demos of new ones. It’s also emblematic of the AI juggernaut’s ongoing efforts to win hearts and minds in Washington. For more scoops from the cutting edge of AI, subscribe to Semafor Technology. →

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