RAND Policy Currents.

"A historic window of opportunity in the Middle East."

Views expressed in this Geopolitical News and Analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 29 July 2025, 2321 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

THE NEWSLETTER FOR POLICY PEOPLE JULY 29, 2025   Students leave the Zamalka mixed school in Jobar, a suburb of Damascus, Syria, that was for years a strategic front in the civil war and a location for former Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham militias, April 15, 2025. Photo by Elke Scholiers/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters A Historic Window of Opportunity in the Middle East The Middle East is in a period of momentous change. Testifying before a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee last week, RAND's Shelly Culbertson described this moment as a strategic opportunity for the United States. With Iran experiencing several significant setbacks in recent months, Washington could move swiftly to “help set a new course for the region.” While recovery is ultimately the responsibility of Middle Eastern countries, she said, it is in U.S. security and economic interests to stand with regional nations in creating a more stable and prosperous future. Positioning the United States as the partner of choice “is not charity,” Culbertson said, “it's strategy.” What might this look like? Washington could commit to mediating the ends of active conflicts, take steps to address long-term humanitarian crises, support postwar recovery, encourage improvements in governance and job opportunities, and focus its engagement on priority locations. The United States has a choice, Culbertson concluded: Treat the Middle East as a region of endless quagmires or help it become a region of opportunity. “We can guide the trajectory of which future unfolds.” Read more   The Future of the U.S. Navy Force Structure The capabilities of U.S. Navy ships and submarines have improved and expanded over the last several decades. At the same time, the Navy's force structure has become smaller. In a new report, RAND's Bradley Martin examines the mismatch between this force structure and the challenges likely to face the Navy over the next decade. Martin focuses on potential future interactions with China and other adversaries. He emphasizes the importance of creating a force structure with sufficient numbers of ships and the value of uncrewed systems. Read more The U.S. Should Plan for an AI-Driven Crisis There is no way of knowing exactly how AI will evolve or precisely how it will transform national security. But there are many indicators of a coming powerful change, including a fierce race between the United States and China to achieve artificial general intelligence. According to RAND's Matan Chorev and Joel Predd, decisionmakers must prepare for the worst—and start planning now: “In an increasingly competitive and combustible world, … the United States cannot afford being caught by surprise.” Read more   RAND Recommends   Most clicked last week: insights on Taiwan's resilience to an attack by China. RAND's Christopher Pernin discusses wargames that explored how to defend against drone attacks on U.S. military bases. It's time to move beyond the myth of the “5 a.m. club,” says RAND's Wendy Troxel. Rising early isn't the secret to success and well-being for everyone, because sleep-wake rhythms are deeply rooted in biology.   Events   A Discussion on Recent Trends Among the Unsheltered in Los Angeles Wednesday July 30, 2025 – Online Policy Lab: Restoring U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence Thursday July 31, 2025 – Online

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