WPR Daily Review.

"Is Trump a peacemaker? or a warmonger?"

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 01 May 2025, 2051 UTC.

Content and Source:  "WPR Daily Review", 01 May 2025.

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May 1, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the use of military force and Thailand’s recent arrest of a U.S. academic.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with then-candidate Donald Trump, in New York, Sept. 27, 2024 (photo by the Presidential Office of Ukraine via AP Images).

War in Ukraine: The U.S. and Ukraine signed an agreement yesterday to establish a joint investment fund in Ukraine’s natural resource wealth, including from minerals, oil and gas. Under the agreement, which must still be passed by Ukraine’s parliament, any future U.S. aid, including military assistance, will be qualified as contributions to the fund. (Financial Times)

Our Take: The challenge in trying to determine what this deal means for U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is that, even with the text of the agreement released, much still remains unclear about what the goal of the joint investment fund is. When first discussed, the potential deal was framed...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

Perhaps no other disagreement about Donald Trump has been more enduring than the one between those who claim he is a warmonger and those, including Trump himself, who argue that he is to the contrary a man of peace.

As WPR editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein writes, the answer to that debate ultimately explains Trump’s approach to the use of military force in U.S. foreign policy—but only if you know where to look.

Trump Is Not the Peacemaker He Portrays Himself to Be By Judah Grunstein Trump’s seemingly contradictory approach to war and the use of U.S. military force makes sense—if you know where to look.

*****

On April 8, Paul Chambers, a U.S. academic who has lived or worked in Thailand for three decades, was suddenly arrested in Bangkok, after reporting to a local police station in response to a complaint of lèse majesté—or insulting the monarchy—filed against him by the Thai military.

Chambers’ arrest came as a shock because, while Thailand has often used its lèse majesté laws to silence domestic critics of the monarchy over the years, it is very uncommon for Thai authorities to pursue charges against foreigners, let alone prominent academics, or try to jail them in the kingdom.

That raises the question of why Chambers has been targeted now, after so many years of working on such sensitive issues as the military and the monarchy without encountering any problems. His arrest also raises questions about freedom of speech in Thailand, which had lately been transitioning back toward being a democracy—albeit a highly flawed one—after its last military coup in 2014, Joshua Kurlantzick writes.

Thailand’s Arrest of Paul Chambers Won’t Stop the Push for Reform By Joshua Kurlantzick The arrest of a U.S. academic in Thailand for insulting the monarchy won’t deter progressive forces seeking to reform the country’s lèse majesté laws.

Pakistan said yesterday it has “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military action against the country soon, as tensions continue to escalate between the neighboring countries following an attack last week in the Kashmir region that killed 26 civilians.

This week’s question: Will there be a direct military conflict between India and Pakistan in May?

Yes. No.

We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR.

Thousands of people rallied in Burkina Faso’s capital yesterday in support of the country’s military junta after the government said last week it had foiled a “major plot” to overthrow junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore. The military alleged that the plotters were based in neighboring Cote d’Ivoire.

Tensions between Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire have been high for years, but have grown increasingly antagonistic over the past year, with Traore repeatedly accusing Ivoirian President Alassane Ouattara of harboring dissidents planning to overthrow the Burkinabe government. And yet, as Jessica Moody wrote in November, even as Traore accuses Ouattara of seeking to destabilize Burkina Faso at every opportunity, he has himself been mounting some efforts to undermine Cote d’Ivoire’s government.

A Feud With Burkina Faso Has Cote d’Ivoire’s Ouattara on the Back Foot By Jessica Moody Nov. 20, 2024 | Burkina Faso’s military leader has been trying to undermine the Ivorian government. The problems for Cote d’Ivoire don’t stop there.

*****

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said yesterday he would seek to eliminate the Pentagon’s Women, Peace and Security, or WPS, program, which was created in 2017 to increase women’s participation in national security spaces. Several members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s current administration were integral to its creation.

The planned dismantling of the WPS program is just the latest move by Hegseth to push for a retrograde and patriarchal vision of the U.S. military, with justifications for his reforms often invented or based on false premises. As Hilary Matfess wrote in March, this agenda has real implications for the well-being of U.S. servicewomen, as well as for women in countries where the U.S. military is active.

Hegseth’s Patriarchal Vision Will Make the U.S. Military Less Effective By Hilary Matfess March 13, 2025 | Trump’s defense secretary has vowed to eradicate “wokeness” from the U.S. military. His justifications are all based on false premises.

*****

This month, Indonesia’s parliament is set to ratify an agreement signed with Vietnam in 2022 that sets boundaries for their exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea. Indonesia hopes that ratification will reduce encroachments by Vietnamese fishers in its waters. While China’s assertiveness in contested South China Sea waters has understandably received the most attention, Vietnam has also sought to expand its foothold in the region. Read more in this briefing by Michael Hart.

*****

At hearings before the International Court of Justice this week on Israel’s blocking of humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian territories, the U.S. argued that Israel must provide aid to Gaza but does not have to work with the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, the UNRWA, which Israel banned in January. Read more on Israel’s complicated relationship with the U.N. in this briefing by Jonathan Lincoln.

More from WPR

Richard Gowan on the U.N.’s downsizing. Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé on Ghana under President Mahama. Mary Gallagher on the Trump team’s internal disagreements on China. Jeremy McKey and Jordan Sandman on the geopolitics of digital payment systems.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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