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"Trump's tariffs on 90-day pause, Markets' historic rally, US hikes China tariffs."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 10 April 2025, 0032 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

MILAN  SHANGHAI  JAKARTA APRIL 10, 2025 READ ON THE WEB Flagship Sign up for our free newsletters→   The World Today Trump pauses tariffs Markets’ historic rally US hikes China duties Trade uncertainty reigns Tariffs loom over Versace deal A rice crisis in the making UK’s murder algorithm Americans uneasy about AI Debate over melatonin Minecraft movie hit in China The Great Gatsby turns 100. ↓ 1 Trump pauses almost all reciprocal tariffs Nathan Howard/Reuters US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, but hiked duties on China to 125%. It was a stunning reversal of Trump’s trade policy after days of market losses triggered by his “Liberation Day” tariffs: The White House said it was open to negotiating with nations that reached out to seek a deal. “No one creates leverage for himself like President Trump,” the Treasury secretary said. Stocks surged on the news, but some cautioned against celebrating. The baseline 10% tariffs on imports that are still in place, and the additional levies on China, do “not diminish the uncertainty” for businesses and consumers, the head of a trading group said. ↓ 2 Stocks surge on tariff pause Markets rallied dramatically after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs that had sparked a global sell-off. The S&P 500 surged 9.5%, its best day since 2008. Meanwhile, Treasury bond yields, which had spiked in recent days, fell, and Goldman Sachs rescinded its recession forecast. One executive told Semafor the move was “the financial and economic equivalent of Khrushchev turning the ships around.” But Bloomberg’s Edward Harrison warned the high tariffs against China could still create a recession and another stock collapse: “This is truly the Everything Risk moment for the US.” One analyst said the “tariff clouds” may have parted, “but it’s too soon to know how sunny the skies will be tomorrow — or 90 days from now.” ↓ 3 US-China trade war widens Kevin Lamarque/Reuters US President Donald Trump’s further tariff hike on China Wednesday marked the latest tit-for-tat move in an escalating trade conflict between the two superpowers. Trump’s global trade war has “shifted to a US-China trade war” for now, Axios wrote: Trump raised duties on China to 125% and excluded it from his 90-day tariff reprieve, blaming Beijing for choosing to retaliate instead of wanting to negotiate. Earlier Wednesday, China hiked tariffs on US imports to 84%, added more American companies to a trade blacklist, and imposed additional export controls, showing how Beijing “has systematically put together a new arsenal of tools that’s intended to minimize the cost to China and maximize the pain on the US,” one expert told The Wall Street Journal. ↓ 4 Little respite from trade chaos Brendan McDermid/Reuters US President Donald Trump’s sudden tariff turnaround may have eased some immediate economic pain, but it offered minimal respite from the chaos unleashed by his unpredictable trade policy, analysts said. White House officials have previously argued the duties will bring manufacturing back to the US, but Trump’s pivot to negotiating trade deals could undercut that strategy. “In the end, there are just too many contradictions… to warrant any talk of a grand plan,” the Financial Times’ Janan Ganesh argued. For Trump, chaos “is a source of leverage, a way to keep his options open and his adversaries guessing,” The Economist wrote. But such uncertainty also undercuts businesses’ confidence to invest or hire. ↓ 5 Tariffs impact Prada-Versace deal Jeenah Moon/Reuters Prada’s deal to acquire Versace is shrouded in uncertainty over tariffs and market turmoil. The iconic Italian fashion houses could reportedly reach an agreement this week, after discussing a lower price, but The Wall Street Journal reported the deal was at risk of falling apart over the impact of US President Donald Trump’s duties, which “slammed into luxury retail.” It’s unclear how Trump’s tariff pause on Wednesday could impact the acquisition. The talks come at a precarious time for Versace and the broader luxury sector: Donatella Versace recently resigned as creative director after nearly 30 years, and luxury brands are facing weaker demand as shoppers put off big purchases. ↓ 6 Rice crisis looms The world is on the verge of a rice crisis due to a “heady stew of science, politics and economics,” a science commentator argued. Production problems are bubbling up, especially in Asia: Experts believe an Indonesian megaproject to develop new rice farms is doomed to fail over ecological issues; a court blocked farmers in the Philippines from growing genetically modified “Golden Rice”; and Japan is dipping into its national rice stockpile to address shortages and price hikes. Scientific innovations to increase rice yields are one solution in the face of climate change, Anjana Ahuja wrote in the Financial Times. But some of those projects have seen funding cuts following US President Donald Trump’s return — “unappetising news” for the world. ↓ 7 UK’s murder prediction tool Manon Cruz/Reuters The UK is developing an algorithm to predict which people are most likely to commit murder. The government says the project is for research purposes ahead of a future report, but civil liberties campaigners told The Guardian that it is “dystopian” and would entrench institutional bias against low-income or non-white groups. It reveals a longstanding dilemma of “algorithmic fairness:” Treating groups equally means assessing individuals less accurately, and vice versa. For instance, men have more car crashes, but it might be considered unfair to charge them higher premiums. With crime, there could be important upsides — 66% of all crimes are committed by 10% of the population — but it could also impose unfair punishment on social groups. ↓ The World Economy Summit Olugbenga Agboola, Founder and CEO, Flutterwave; Robert Bradway, Chairman and CEO, Amgen; Doug Burgum, US Interior Secretary; John Caplan, CEO and Director, Payoneer; Joanne Crevoiserat, CEO, Tapestry; Jacek Olczak, CEO, PMI and more will join the Taking the Pulse of Consumer Confidence session at the 2025 World Economy Summit. As consumer spending drives global economic growth, this session examines how shifting demographics, digital transformation, and economic uncertainty are redefining consumer sentiment and behavior worldwide. April 25, 2025 | Washington, DC | Learn More ↓ 8 Americans are worried about AI Artificial intelligence experts think AI will make the world better, but most Americans are not so sure, polling suggested. Only a quarter of US adults think AI will benefit them personally, compared to 75% of AI researchers; a separate poll found that even though 79% of Gen Z respondents use AI tools, they are more likely to say it makes them anxious than excited. The public also doubts the government’s ability to regulate AI responsibly and are concerned that it will take jobs and entrench biases, The Verge reported. Not all AI experts are sanguine, though: A 2023 poll of AI researchers found that on average they estimated a 16% chance of human extinction or comparably bad outcomes from advanced AI. ↓ 9 Debate over melatonin for kids Record numbers of parents in the US are giving their children melatonin to help them sleep. Melatonin is a natural hormone involved in our circadian rhythm. It has been used for decades to aid sleep in children with ADHD or autism. In many countries melatonin is prescription-only, but in the US it is available over the counter, and often sold as gummies to appeal to children. There is, Ars Technica reported, little evidence on its long-term safety, and some doctors worry it could affect development if given regularly, although that is speculation. On the other hand, some medics note that sleep problems are bad for both parent and child, and reducing them can have huge benefits. ↓ 10 Shift in Chinese movie preferences Warner Bros./YouTube An American blockbuster dethroned a Chinese animated juggernaut that had reigned over China’s box office for weeks. A Minecraft Movie, based on the mega-popular video game, comfortably outpaced Ne Zha 2, which is inspired by Chinese mythology and has become the highest-grossing animated film ever. Hollywood has had a rough few years in China, as authorities approved fewer US films for screening and audiences leaned into homegrown titles. But Minecraft’s success, Radii China wrote, “signals a fascinating evolution in Chinese audience preferences.” Because the game has a global fanbase, the movie’s “universal storytelling and visual style translate regardless of cultural background,” a Shanghai-based industry analyst said. ↓ Flagging April 10: The International Energy Agency releases a special report on energy and AI. China and the US publish inflation figures. Dan Paintings, an exhibition featuring paintings by artist Dan Schein, opens at the JJ Murphy Gallery in New York. ↓ Curio Public domain The Great Gatsby’s 100th anniversary has sparked renewed reflection on what is considered one of the greatest American novels. Described by Vox as “all the more lovely because it is so ambivalent,” F. Scott Fitzgerald’s classic tale of Jazz Age decadence gained early popularity from “a series of accidents” — a pocket-size edition for WWII soldiers and, later, its patent suitability for high school syllabi. But Gatsby shines, the Financial Times noted, in its critique of “unaccountable elites” who, Fitzgerald wrote, “smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money.” A chronicle of decline, Gatsby is also “an elegy for a dream” that nonetheless endures — containing, therein, “an image of human hope as luminous and flickering as the green light itself.” ↓ Semafor Spotlight Carlos Barria/Reuters At their rallies and protests, in interviews and Senate speeches, Democrats are pivoting to offering themselves as defenders of American democracy and tradition — a new Tea Party rebelling against a new mad king, Semafor’s David Weigel reported. “Arguing that the current administration is not just wrong, but tyrannical, had been fairly effective for conservatives as they resisted Barack Obama and Joe Biden,” Weigel wrote. “Democrats are now very comfortable with that script.” Sign up for Semafor Americana, an insider’s guide to American power. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for newsletters from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here.Read our privacy policy Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. 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