Semafor Flagship-The World Today.

"Consumer confidence sinks, Corporate confusion reigns, Carney's anti-Trump vote."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 30 April 2025, 0159 UTC.

Content and Source:  Email update from "Semafor Flagship-The World Today."

 https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm&ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzQbdrTsfNcxSZnnKSFFXDCnCtdM

Source URL--https://www.semafor.com.

Please check email link, URL, or scroll down to read your selections.  Thanks for joining us today.

Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

valletta  lahore  Ōshū April 30, 2025 Read on the web Flagship Sign up for our free email briefings→   The World Today Consumer confidence sinks Corporate confusion reigns Carney’s anti-Trump role China ramps up rhetoric US renewables debate India-Pakistan market impact Malta golden passport ban Self-driving trucks in US Less thirsty rice ‘Trendy’ paternity leave An artist spent a year recording the sounds of a forest. ↓ 1 US consumer confidence tanks US consumer confidence fell in April to its lowest level since May 2020, new data showed, as companies warned of tariff-induced price hikes. A third of consumers also expect hiring and business conditions to worsen, reflecting the gloomy outlook among Americans: Polls show faltering trust in US President Donald Trump’s ability to handle the economy, while recession fears are rising. Major US retailers recently warned Trump that higher prices will be unavoidable. Adidas said Tuesday that tariffs would lead to price hikes on all its US products, while Chinese e-commerce platform Temu began listing “import charges”; Amazon denied it was considering showing tariff costs on products after the White House called such a move “hostile and political.” ↓ 2 Firms pull forecasts amid trade chaos Brendan McDermid/Reuters More businesses are withdrawing their profit projections for this year, in a sign of the unprecedented tariff-related uncertainty weighing on firms. UPS, Walmart, and American Airlines have all chosen to pull forecasts, while General Motors delayed its investor call anticipating US President Donald Trump’s decision to ease some auto tariffs. The moves reflect the “corporate chaos” unleashed by Trump’s whipsaw trade policy, Reuters noted, making it hard for companies to plan long term. “The 30,000-foot view is a bit of a choose-your-own-adventure,” Semafor’s Liz Hoffman wrote. But Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said markets will “settle down,” though layoffs and belt-tightening will likely increase: “Part of this is just a reset of expectations.” For more insights on how corporations are reacting to the tariffs, subscribe to Semafor’s Business briefing. → ↓ 3 New face of global anti-Trump coalition Carlos Osorio/Reuters After a narrow victory Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is well positioned to lead a global, pro-multilateralism coalition that opposes US President Donald Trump’s agenda, analysts said. The only person to have run two G7 central banks, Carney has a “superb Rolodex,” a former Canadian diplomat said, and could coordinate with leaders in Europe and Asia who are also facing taunts and tariff threats from Trump. “If globalism had a name and a face, it would be Carney’s,” a Financial Times columnist wrote. The economist, who campaigned on an anti-Trump message, “now sits at the centre of an alternative pole of global economic thinking,” the BBC wrote. “Everything but Trump.” ↓ 4 China videos accuse US of ‘bullying’ China Ministry of Foreign Affairs China is hardening its rhetoric against the US as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies escalates. Beijing released dramatic propaganda videos Monday depicting itself as standing up against American “bullying” on behalf of the world. “China won’t back down so the voices of the weak will be heard,” one video declared, calling the US “a small stranded boat.” Beijing has previously vowed to “fight to the end,” and the new campaign shows how China seeks to capitalize on the tariff disruption to make inroads with other countries. But such “bellicose rhetoric… does little to sway international opinion,” a China expert argued in Foreign Affairs, “and fails entirely to convey the Chinese leadership’s long-standing desire to avoid external conflict.” ↓ 5 Energy firms, WH at odds over AI power Some of the largest US power companies are at odds with the White House on how to fill the country’s looming electricity deficit and beat China at the AI race. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at Semafor’s World Economy Summit last week that the continued use of federal tax credits to replace fossil fuels with renewals in the electric grid “would be catastrophic.” But power executives believe that even as rising trade barriers with China make some technologies more expensive, renewables along with batteries are still the cheapest and fastest way to put new electrons on the grid, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell reported. The debate comes as officials seek ways to power more data centers to keep up with surging AI demand. Subscribe to Semafor Net Zero for more energy and climate scoops. → ↓ 6 Economic impact of India-Pakistan turmoil Akhtar Soomro/Reuters The economic impact of heightened tensions between India and Pakistan over last week’s militant attack in Kashmir appears to be contained for now. “Markets have shrugged off fears of an escalation in tensions” between the nuclear-armed neighbors, Reuters noted, with foreign investors continuing to snap up Indian stocks amid optimism over a potential US-India trade deal. One analyst said the fallout on Indian markets could be contained without a “large-scale escalation.” The countries’ tit-for-tat measures to halt trade are also unlikely to have a major impact as their economic ties have long been constrained, but India’s decision to suspend a critical water-sharing treaty with Pakistan “could wreak havoc” on the latter’s already fragile economy, The New York Times wrote. ↓ 7 EU court rules against ‘golden passports’ Kent Nishimura/Reuters Europe’s highest court on Tuesday ordered Malta to end its “golden passport” program, which allows wealthy foreigners to buy their way to citizenship in the European Union. The scheme, which offers a Maltese passport in exchange for a €600,000 investment, turned the acquisition of nationality into “a mere commercial transaction,” the court said, ruling it unlawful. The decision came after the Financial Times reported that several Russians with ties to the Ukraine war had bought Maltese citizenship, before being hit with international sanctions. “It’s an insurance policy for some, it is an exit strategy for some,” a European government transparency advocate said. US President Donald Trump has pushed for the US to sell “gold card” immigration visas for $5 million each. ↓ 8 Driverless trucks to hit US roads The first driverless semi-trucks will hit US roads in the coming days. Autonomous trucking companies have been testing their fleets on a 200-mile stretch of a Texas highway for some years, but one company plans to remove its safety driver from one truck this month. The industry hopes driverless trucking can help with staffing shortages and rising costs. Autonomous vehicles took another big step toward commercializing as Volkswagen announced a partnership with Uber, rolling out thousands of robotaxis in US cities from next year, starting in Los Angeles. VW is already challenging Tesla — it is now Europe’s biggest seller of electric vehicles — but also appears to be competing with Waymo, the market leader in autonomous vehicles. ↓ 9 Chile trials less thirsty rice Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters Irrigating rice fields rather than flooding them reduced water needs by 50% when using a hardy hybrid strain, raising hopes of growing the cereal in more inhospitable places. Rice is a very thirsty crop: Fields are traditionally flooded, taking 300 gallons of water per pound of rice cultivated. A trial in Chile used a strain bred for cold, dry climates, and sowed the plants further apart than normal, allowing normal watering. Chile relies on domestically grown rice, but the already dry country has suffered a 15-year drought, hampering cultivation. The trial is hoped to pave the way for greater production and future-proof Chilean rice farming against climate change. The trial also found greatly improved yield, AFP reported. ↓ 10 Ohtani makes paternity leave trendy Jason Parkhurst—Imagn Images via Reuters Baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani’s brief stint of paternity leave could change how Japan views time off for new dads. Japanese men get up to a year of paid paternity leave — part of the government’s efforts to reverse a falling fertility rate — but it’s uncommon for fathers to actually take it. Ohtani, who plays for the Los Angeles Dodgers, recently took a couple days off for the birth of his daughter, prompting several Japanese athletes to push for local leagues to enact formal paternity leave policies, similar to the US’ Major League Baseball rules that Ohtani took advantage of. Players hope it encourages a culture of taking time off: One baseball coach said being on the paternity leave list has become “trendy.” ↓ Flagging April 30: The US releases its first-quarter GDP estimate. Microsoft, Meta, and Samsung report first-quarter earnings. Vietnam marks 50 years since the withdrawal of US troops from the country’s south. ↓ Curio Joshua Bonnetta. Shelter Press/The Dim Coast Artist and filmmaker Joshua Bonnetta spent a year recording the sounds of a forest in upstate New York, condensing 8,760 hours of audio into a four-hour album. The Pines is “like a poetic version of a scientific chart,” The Guardian wrote. Placing a recorder halfway up a pine tree, Bonnetta captured both ambient sounds — falling rain, branches creaking under snow, and even “leaves fill[ing] in on the deciduous trees” — and raucous wildlife noises from chipmunks and a “pretty gnarly raccoon.” The soundscapes also contain an “undercurrent of mourning” stemming from the climate crisis, The Guardian wrote: “You could always be recording something that you might not be able to record again,” Bonnetta said. ↓ Semafor Spotlight Al Lucca/Semafor The 2011 film Margin Call, a financial thriller centered on a bank’s impending collapse, remains Wall Street’s favorite movie — and the best indictment of it, Semafor’s Ben Smith and Liz Hoffman reported. “If you could find the fancy hotel rooms in London where bankers were starting to watch Margin Call again, you could probably have a pretty good futures trading operation,” the film’s director told Semafor. Ominously, Smith and Hoffman wrote, interest in the film is at an all-time high. For the stories (& the scoops) from Wall Street, sign up for Semafor Business. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for briefings from Semafor.Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here.Read our privacy policy Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. Semafor, Inc. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 59081, New York, NY, 10003-1502, USA