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"In foreign policy, being smart is a pretty high bar."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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March 14, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering what it means to have a “smart” foreign policy and the African Union Commission’s new chairperson.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Ethnic Armenian men from Nagorno-Karabakh sit atop of a damaged armored personnel carrier, in Kornidzor, Armenia, Sept. 29, 2023 (AP photo by Vasily Krestyaninov).

Armenia-Azerbaijan: The two countries agreed yesterday to the text of a peace treaty that would end their decades-long conflict stretching back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan has called for Armenia to remove what it characterized as implicit claims to Azerbaijani territory from its constitution, which would require a referendum, before the treaty can be signed. (The Guardian)

Our Take: The talks that resulted in this agreement technically began in 2020 as part of the Russia-brokered ceasefire ending the latest outbreak of hostilities between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic-Armenian region that split off from Azerbaijan with Armenia’s backing in 1988. But the negotiations after that war...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

A couple decades ago, “smart power” was all the rage in U.S. foreign policy discussions, largely in response to the perceived foolishness of the administration of then-U.S. President George W. Bush for having become bogged down in two overseas wars. Advocates of smart power used those failed interventions to point to the limitations of hard-power instruments—like military and economic coercion—for achieving foreign policy goals.

The idea of smart power seems especially relevant to foreign policy discussions in what columnist Paul Poast last week called “the era of great power stupidity.” But what exactly is meant by a smart foreign policy? That’s not an easy question to answer, and as Paul writes in his column this week, that tells us a lot about the making of foreign policy in general.

In Foreign Policy, Being Smart Is a Pretty High Bar By Paul Poast The idea of “smart power” seems especially relevant today. But foreign policy choices usually don’t boil down to obvious outcomes.

*****

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s long-serving foreign minister, took office as the African Union Commission’s chair yesterday, four weeks after defeating Raila Odinga, Kenya’s former prime minister and perennial opposition leader, in the race for the job. He succeeds Chad’s Moussa Faki, who leaves after serving two four-year terms.

Youssouf’s victory represents a diplomatic victory for one of the continent’s smallest but diplomatically agile states. Indeed, Djibouti’s model of leveraging great power competition for its own benefit is also relevant for the AU, Afolabi Adekaiyaoja writes.

The African Union Is Giving Djibouti’s Diplomatic Model a Try By Afolabi Adekaiyaoja Djibouti’s foreign minister is now leading the African Union, in a nod to the diplomatic agility of one of the continent’s smallest states.

Over the weekend, Romania’s election authority disqualified far-right populist candidate Calin Georgescu from participating in May’s rerun of the presidential election. Georgescu won the first round of the election in November, but Romania’s Constitutional Court later annulled the results after intelligence reports alleged that he had benefited from an aggressive Russian-sponsored propaganda campaign on the social media platform TikTok.

This week, we asked: Is disqualifying Georgescu justified to protect Romania’s democratic process?

The results? 66% of respondents said “Yes,” compared to 34% who said “No.”

Read more about Romania’s election and U.S. involvement in this column by Amanda Coakley.

Lawmakers in Peru passed a controversial reform to the country’s 2002 international cooperation law that imposes new, sweeping restrictions on civil society organizations. The reforms include a provision preventing nonprofits from providing funding or assistance to legal cases against the government, including those involving human rights violations.

Facing a dismally low approval rating, Peru’s legislature has passed law after law systemically undermining key democratic institutions, with the restrictions on NGOs just the latest example. As James Bosworth wrote last year, Peru’s democracy is now being undone by some of the most unpopular politicians in the world.

Peru’s Unpopular Politicians Are Taking the State Down With Them By James Bosworth June 17, 2024 | Peru’s president and Congress are deeply unpopular. That’s not keeping them from undoing the country’s democracy.

*****

Yesterday, the South African Development Community said it would withdraw thousands of troops from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi that were sent to eastern Congo in 2023 under its banner. Public opposition to the deployment has surged since 14 South African and three Malawian peacekeepers were killed by M23 rebels in January.

Their deaths also sparked renewed tensions between South Africa and Rwanda, which has been credibly accused of backing the M23 rebel group and also has troops of its own fighting in eastern Congo. As Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé wrote last month, both Rwanda and South Africa have vital interests in Congo that they are seeking to protect, putting them at the risk of a collision course.

The Conflict in Congo Has Rekindled Rwanda-South Africa Tensions By Chris Olaoluwa Ògúnmọ́dẹdé Feb. 13, 2025 | M23’s rapid offensive in eastern Congo has rekindled tensions in the already fraught relationship between Rwanda and South Africa.

*****

Germany’s likely next chancellor, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, reached an agreement with the Green Party yesterday to pass a massive spending plan for defense and infrastructure. As Ulrike Franke wrote after Merz announced the proposal last week, the plans suggest Germany’s new leaders are prepared to respond with the necessary urgency to Berlin’s most momentous foreign and defense policy challenges in a generation.

*****

Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, yesterday signed a temporary constitution that sets out a five-year transitional period for the country. The declaration includes some guarantees for women’s rights, free speech and transitional justice but also enshrines Islamist leadership. Read about the lessons that Syria can take for its post-Assad transition from the 2011 uprising that began the civil war in this briefing by Matthew D. Cebul and Rana B. Khoury.

More from WPR

Catherine Wilson on France’s attempted reset with New Caledonia. Hilary Matfess on the U.S. military under Trump. Amanda Coakley on Romania’s presidential election. Jon Hoffman on Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic blitz.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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