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"Getting out of Trump's way could be Russia and China's best bet."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 20 February 2025, 1953 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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February 20, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering U.S. deterrence during President Donald Trump’s second term and the threats facing the European Green Deal.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses reporters following the opening session of the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, Feb. 20, 2025 (AP photo by Jerome Delay).

G20: Foreign ministers from the Group of 20 are meeting in Johannesburg today and tomorrow, marking the first major gathering of South Africa’s G20 presidency. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is boycotting the meeting amid tensions between the Trump administration and South Africa. (AP)

Our Take: South Africa’s G20 presidency, culminating in the group’s next summit later this year, presents a significant opportunity for the interests of African countries to play a larger role in multilateralism and on the global diplomatic stage. That is especially true with...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

As a candidate in 2024, President Donald Trump stressed that he would restore the United States’ deterrence against the world’s other great powers. And yet, there are ominous signs that more aggressive activity from both Russia and China may be on the horizon.

Will Trump be able to deter rival great powers from taking even more aggressive actions during his second term in office? As columnist Daniel W. Drezner writes, there are three scenarios to describe how Russia and China could respond to a second Trump administration intent on achieving its America First agenda:

Getting Out of Trump’s Way Could Be Russia and China’s Best Bet By Daniel W. Drezner If the Trump administration does everything possible to weaken U.S. security, Russia and China may simply stand back and let him do what he wants.

*****

In 2019, the EU finalized the framework of the European Green Deal, the most comprehensive and ambitious climate policy in its history. The deal aims to reduce carbon emissions by at least 55 percent of 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon-neutral emissions by 2050.

Five years on, however, with the ink barely dry on much of the legislation to implement the policy, an array of powerful political, corporate and economic forces has aligned against it. As a result, many climate activists fear that the much-vaunted European Green Deal may already be dead in the water, John Boyce writes.

The EU’s Landmark Climate Deal Is Being Stripped to the Bone By John Boyce The European Parliament’s center-right bloc has turned on the EU’s Green Deal, representing an existential threat to the 2019 landmark policy.

This week’s question: Do you see U.S. President Donald Trump and his policies as mainly:

A threat to U.S. democracy and the global order A necessary correction to flawed domestic and global institutions

We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR.

Protesting farmers briefly clashed with police in Thessaloniki, Greece’s second-largest city, yesterday as they demanded more government support on a number of issues, including crop losses due to climate change. Greek farming associations have been protesting for several weeks, particularly in central Greece.

The protests echo similar demonstrations that swept across Europe in the first half of last year, with farmers blocking motorways and capital cities to protest against environmental restrictions by the EU, in some cases for weeks at a time. As John Boyce wrote then, EU leaders’ uncharacteristic willingness to backtrack on key policies in response to the protests underscores growing concern about the populist far right’s ability to capitalize on farmers’ anger.

Angry Farmers Have Europe Running Scared By John Boyce March 1, 2024 | Farmers protests have disrupted everyday life across Europe, while offering a potential boon to far-right parties.

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The South African government abruptly canceled its scheduled presentation of the annual budget yesterday and rescheduled it for next month. The move is the result of a dispute within the governing coalition led by the African National Congress, or ANC, which had dominated South Africa’s post-apartheid politics but lost its parliamentary majority in last year’s elections.

Some observers had hoped a coalition government would be better equipped to respond to South Africa’s deep-rooted challenges than the ANC was on its own. But as Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé wrote after the coalition deal was sealed in June, that optimism overlooked the deep, intractable differences that exist between the ANC and its coalition partners.

South Africa’s Coalition Government Is a Risky Gamble for All Sides By Chris Olaoluwa Ògúnmọ́dẹdé June 21, 2024 | Many believe that a new coalition government will lead to change in South Africa. That hope ignores the scale of the country’s—and coalition’s—problems.

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Denmark announced yesterday that it will raise its defense spending to more than 3 percent of its GDP this year and next, becoming the latest NATO member to agree to increase spending on its military. The shift comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that European countries spend more on defense. But as Jennifer Kavanagh and Daniel DePetris wrote last month, while Trump is right that Europeans should do more—and the U.S. less—when it comes to the continent’s defense, his fixation on spending targets is misguided.

*****

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa ordered the foreign ministry to seek cooperation agreements with “allied nations” that would allow for temporary foreign military assistance in fighting organized criminal groups in the country. Noboa has struggled to substantively address a surge in violent crime, and this move comes two months ahead of a runoff presidential election in which security is a key concern for Ecuadorian voters. Read more in this briefing by Mie Hoejris Dahl.

More from WPR

Ulrike Franke on Europe’s trans-Atlantic wakeup call. Joshua Kurlantzick and Abigail McGowan on the Philippines’ brutal drug war. Mary Gallagher on Europe’s U.S.-China dilemma. Matthew D. Cebul and Rana B. Khoury on Syria’s post-Assad transition.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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