"Trump has lost the plot on the U.S.-China trade war."
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
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January 7, 2025 |
Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the U.S.-China trade war and how the world can navigate growing digital fragmentation. |
But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |
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| Canada PM Justin Trudeau announces he will resign, Jan. 6, 2025 (Adrian Wyld for The Canadian Press via AP). |
Canada: PM Justin Trudeau announced yesterday he would step down as soon as his Liberal Party has chosen a new leader. Trudeau also suspended Parliament until late March, at which point a no-confidence vote is all but assured, setting up general elections that the Liberals are expected to lose. (AP) |
Our Take: Trudeau’s announcement yesterday hardly comes as a surprise. After then-Deputy PM and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland—long a close Trudeau ally—resigned last month in a rebuke of his leadership, a growing chorus of voices... |
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Trade friction between the U.S. and China hasn’t led to the end of globalization. Instead, it has changed the flow of goods and services around the world, to the great benefit of some countries and the disadvantage of others. |
For this reason, to prevail in the bilateral trade war, the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will need to consider how its policies affect Washington’s allies, partners and neighbors. As columnist Mary Gallagher writes, victory will go to the side that is best at persuading other countries that its version of globalization is the most attractive and alluring. And so far, China has been smarter and more strategic in that effort. |
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Trump Has Lost the Plot on the U.S.-China Trade War
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While tech powers like the U.S. and China push for ever more digital fragmentation, the rest of the world often bears the costs, with regulatory, economic, technological and security implications. |
With digital fragmentation showing no signs of slowing down, various countries are now adopting a range of ad hoc approaches to navigate the challenges and risks it presents. Yet, the most effective strategy is likely to be one of pragmatic resilience, characterized by adopting non-antagonistic narratives, emphasizing short-term results and pursuing long-term regulatory ambitions. |
Laura Mahrenbach and Maximilian Mayer explain: |
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U.S.-China Digital Fragmentation Is Putting the World in a Bind
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A coalition of civil society and opposition groups in Guinea said hundreds of people were arrested yesterday during a protest against the ruling military junta’s failure to begin a democratic transition, which it had promised by the end of 2024. |
The junta, led by Gen. Mamady Doumbouya, has struggled to address Guinea’s mounting challenges since it took power in 2021, leading to increasing popular disillusionment over the past year. As Lassane Ouedraogo wrote in March 2024, the risk of social unrest will remain high if Doumbouya remains unable to address the nation’s pressing challenges and fails to organize democratic, fair and transparent elections in a timely fashion. |
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Guinea Is Losing Patience With Doumbouya’s Post-Coup Leadership
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Japan’s defense minister met with his Indonesian counterpart today in Jakarta, where the two sides agreed to resume talks on the joint development of naval vessels and other military equipment. |
Southeast Asian states like Indonesia are increasingly turning to Asia’s middle powers, particularly Japan, to build defense ties in an effort to avoid being directly drawn into U.S.-China tensions. As Joshua Kurlantzick and Abigail McGowan wrote in November, doing so serves several purposes for both sides. |
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The U.S. and China Aren’t Southeast Asia’s Only Options
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John Mahama was sworn in for a second nonconsecutive term as Ghana’s president today, after winning the country’s presidential election last month as an opposition candidate. As Afolabi Adekaiyaoja wrote in the aftermath of the election, however, Ghana would do well to re-examine the social contract its democratic system of governance proffers to its citizens. |
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The U.S. has transferred 11 Yemeni prisoners held at the Guantanamo Bay military prison to Oman. In recent years, Oman has leveraged its long-standing tradition of robust neutrality to become a vital partner for a number of global powers, including the United States. Read more in this briefing by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey. |
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