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"China May not want the U.N. opening Trump's handing to it."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 30 January 2025, 2022 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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January 30, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the U.S. and China’s shifting roles at the United Nations, as well as the far right’s anti-immigrant fearmongering in Portugal.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Chile: Lawmakers approved a major reform to the country’s pension system yesterday, breaking a political impasse that had lasted more than a decade. The measure gradually increases employer contributions and raises the guaranteed minimum pension, while also providing for a “solidarity fund” to address gender inequalities in pensions and fostering increased competition among the country’s privatized pension funds. (Financial Times)

Our Take: As in many countries, pension reform in Chile has long been a third rail of politics, albeit for unique reasons. The pension system was...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s swipes at the United Nations and international cooperation since retaking office have critics declaring that the U.S. risks ceding influence to China at the body. Yet while the Trump administration’s stance toward the U.N. does create openings for China to boost its influence in New York and Geneva, it also creates headaches for Beijing.

Despite disowning parts of the multilateral system, the U.S. is still likely to use the U.N. as a platform to criticize China in public. And it is not clear that China actually wants to invest the political and financial resources necessary to take a leadership role in those U.N. agencies the U.S. rejects, columnist Richard Gowan writes.

China May Not Want the U.N. Opening Trump Is Handing It By Richard Gowan Trump’s stances toward the U.N. may create openings for China to boost its influence there. It’s not clear that Beijing wants to.

*****

On Dec. 19, Portugal’s Public Security Police stopped dozens of people, mostly Asian immigrants, for nearly two hours, lining them up against a wall while police officers checked their identification papers and patted them down looking for weapons and drugs.

For weeks afterward, the operation was the subject of debate and discussion among political parties and across Portuguese society. But the incident also cannot be disconnected from the current political environment in Portugal.

Despite Portugal remaining one of the safest countries in the world, the far-right populist and anti-immigrant Chega party is spreading a misleading message that the country is becoming a violent hellscape. And as Francisco Serrano writes, the party’s unsubstantiated ideas about the impact of immigrants in Portugal are gaining ground—in part because they are being amplified by the government.

Portugal’s Government Is Amplifying Chega’s Anti-Immigrant Fearmongering By Francisco Serrano The far right’s false claims that immigrants are fueling crime in Portugal are finding an audience, including among the authorities.

This week’s question: Which bilateral relationship will be the most significant in shaping the global order over the remainder of the decade?

The U.S. and China The U.S. and Europe China and Russia China and India

We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR.

El Salvador’s Congress ratified a constitutional amendment that will make it easier to pass future changes to the constitution. Under the new rules, Bukele’s New Ideas party could theoretically change the constitution at will, given its near-total control of Congress, which critics say will allow him to consolidate power.

Bukele is incredibly popular in El Salvador, largely because of a heavy-handed crackdown on gangs that has led to mass civil rights abuses, but has also made the country safer. As James Bosworth wrote when Bukele was reelected last year, though, Bukele’s authoritarian actions and attitudes are likely to leave El Salvador worse off in the long run.

Bukele’s Story Doesn’t End Well for El Salvador By James Bosworth Feb. 5, 2024 | Bukele’s landslide victory in El Salvador’s elections shows his war against gangs is popular. The next five years will show if it’s sustainable.

*****

Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visited Damascus today, marking the first visit by a head of state to the Syrian capital since rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, forced longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad from power. The visit comes a day after Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of HTS, was named president during the country’s transitional period.

Regional powers like Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have all rushed to gain influence with the new government in Damascus. But as Jonathan Fenton-Harvey wrote last month, while all the regional actors may share the goal of stabilizing Syria, their differences over the country’s long-term trajectory are already evident, reflecting the long-standing divergence in their approaches on regional affairs.

Post-Assad Syria Will Test Turkey’s Thaw With the Gulf States By Jonathan Fenton-Harvey Dec. 17, 2024 | The Middle East’s regional powers had been pursuing reconciliation. Syria’s post-Assad transition will put that to the test.

*****

Argentine President Javier Milei has vowed to remove femicide—or the killing of a woman in the context of gender-based violence—from the country’s penal code. Argentina had long been a leader in advancing gender equality, but Milei’s election in 2023 brought that to a halt, with his time in office so far marked by repeated attacks on women’s rights. Read more in this briefing by Cora Fernández Anderson.

*****

Tanzania and Burundi have signed an agreement for two Chinese firms to build a railway for transporting metals to the port city of Dar es Salaam, amid fierce competition between the U.S. and China to secure supply chains from mines in Africa. But in that competition, Washington is ignoring a crucial reality: China already has a monopoly on smelting, or the processing of those minerals. Read more in this briefing by Duncan Money.

More from WPR

Nathalie Tocci on Trump, Europe and the war in Ukraine. Michael Hart on Laos’ growing ties with its neighbors. Jonathan Fenton-Harvey on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 agenda. Charli Carpenter on the U.S. military and civilian protection.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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