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"Great power war is conceivable again."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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January 21, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering growing fears about a great power war and the Trump administration’s potential trade policies.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

U.S. President Donald Trump holds up an executive order after signing it at an indoor inauguration event in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025 (AP photo by Matt Rourke).

United States: President Donald Trump was sworn in for a second nonconsecutive term yesterday, and soon after issued more than two dozen executive orders, the most ever by a U.S. president on their first day in office. He also rescinded 78 executive actions implemented by his predecessor, former President Joe Biden. (Washington Post)

Our Take: One might have expected Trump’s inauguration to be anticlimactic, given the steady stream of provocative pronouncements he has made since the election. But after taking the oath of office...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

By the end of 2024, the postwar liberal international order seemed to be eroding day by day, pillar by pillar. And yet, perhaps the most noteworthy element of that order continues: the persistence of great power peace. From 1945 to the present, no two states considered to be great powers have fought a war against each other.

One could argue that streak will continue in 2025. But there are some disturbing parallels between how great powers are behaving today and how they started behaving in the late 1930s. In both eras, the proliferation of economic sanctions and embargoes caused great powers to fear that they would be cut off from critical resources. Their reaction to that threat, in turn, helped to escalate great power conflict.

The question today is whether history will repeat itself, or only rhyme, Daniel W. Drezner writes in his first monthly column for WPR.

Fear of a Great Power War Could Be Making One More Likely By Daniel W. Drezner Elites in the U.S. and China are seriously contemplating what a great power war may look like. That is itself alarming.

*****

Whether it’s about the impact of tariffs or the fate of TikTok, many Americans worry about the ways in which President Donald Trump’s second term will affect the global economy and the United States’ role in it. His recent remarks have only exacerbated fears that the next four years will lead to greater isolationism, bellicosity and acrimony between Washington and its allies and partners.

Trump’s immediate use of an executive order upon taking office yesterday to delay enforcement of the congressional ban on TikTok, which he once supported, is also a reminder that his administration will be unpredictable.

Given that unpredictability, there may yet be room for a new series of deals that rescue globalization by persuading U.S. workers that liberalized trade and particularly investment can still work for them, columnist Mary Gallagher writes.

Trump Will Need Foreign Investment to Create Jobs By Mary Gallagher Trump’s second term could rescue globalization by persuading the U.S. labor movement that liberalized trade can still work for them.

Question of the Day: What militant group that took part in the late-2024 rebel advance that toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria most worries officials of the Chinese government?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Syrian Democratic Forces Turkestan Islamic Party Syrian Free Army

Find the answer in the latest WPR Weekly Quiz, then read Giorgio Cafiero’s briefing on why China is approaching post-Assad Syria cautiously.

Hamas members emerged from hiding in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, as a ceasefire with Israel brought an end—at least temporarily—to 15 months of war. In the days since, it has become clear that Hamas remains firmly in control of Gaza, despite Israel’s massive bombardment of the territory in an effort to eradicate the group.

To be sure, Hamas has been significantly weakened in the areas of military command and control, governance and political leadership. But as Khaled Hroub wrote in October, Hamas’ multifaceted nature and the extent to which it is socially and religiously embedded within the Palestinian population provide it with space and oxygen for rebuilding and reorienting.

Hamas Has Been Weakened, but It Will Survive By Khaled Hroub Oct. 22, 2024 | After a year of war, Hamas is still functioning, and Israel will be unable to eradicate it completely.

*****

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said yesterday he will declare a state of emergency in response to a wave of deadly attacks by rebels from the National Liberation Army, or ELN, in the country’s northeast. Petro also said Colombia’s military would take offensive action against the ELN, which is the largest remaining guerilla group in the country.

When Petro first took office in 2022, he promised to bring “Total Peace” to Colombia with an ambitious plan that would prioritize negotiations with armed groups like the ELN over violence. But after facing a series of setbacks due to missteps, legislative roadblocks and unforced errors, Petro has since turned to the military strategies used by his predecessors, as Joshua Collins wrote last year.

In Colombia, Petro’s Peace Plan Isn’t Just About Negotiating Anymore By Joshua Collins April 1, 2024 | President Gustavo Petro is no longer relying exclusively on dialogue to achieve security in Colombia.

*****

China announced yesterday that it had brokered a ceasefire earlier this month between Myanmar’s military junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, a major ethnic rebel group, and that the agreement went into effect Saturday. The MNDAA has played a crucial role in shifting the momentum in Myanmar’s post-coup civil war in the rebels’ favor. But as Michael Hart wrote last month, pressure by Beijing, which supports the junta, on various rebel groups will likely prevent an all-out rebel victory.

*****

Israeli forces began a military operation in the city of Jenin, in the West Bank, earlier today that PM Benjamin Netanyahu said would be “extensive and significant.” The war in Gaza has largely overshadowed growing Israeli-Palestinian violence in the West Bank, including an increase in Israeli military action in the territory and an upsurge in popular support for armed resistance among Palestinians. As Hugh Lovatt wrote in October, the West Bank has quietly become ground zero in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

More from WPR

Paul Poast on Trump’s 19-century foreign policy. Afolabi Adekaiyaoja on Africa’s continental leadership. Jennifer Kavanagh and Daniel DePetris on rebalancing NATO. Richard Gowan on the U.N.’s future in conflict resolution.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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