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"How the Flight 8243 downing affects Russia-Azerbaijan relations."

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January 3, 2025

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s foreign policy legacy.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

A U.S. Steel plant in Clairton, Pennsylvania, October 13, 2024 (AP photo by Ted Shaffrey).

United States: President Joe Biden formally blocked Nippon Steel’s proposed $14 billion takeover of U.S. Steel in a presidential order today. Biden said he made the decision on national security grounds, arguing that Japanese ownership of the U.S. company could weaken the domestic steel industry. (Washington Post)

Our Take: This move is in many ways the perfect encapsulation of the contradictions between Biden’s foreign policy and economic policies on display over the past four years. On one hand, Biden has taken...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

Russian President Vladimir Putin rarely apologizes. So when he personally did so to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev just days after preliminary evidence suggested Russian involvement in the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 last week, it attracted almost as much attention as the tragedy itself.

One might expect Putin would dismiss the idea that Russia had any role in the incident, as he has done in similar situations in the past. The fact that he chose a different approach this time suggests an awareness of the reputational and relational stakes at play for Baku.

But as Kazimier Lim and Leon Sinfield write, by apologizing without admitting Russian guilt, his response has so far failed to assuage the personal sting of the incident for Aliyev, with potential implications for Russia-Azerbaijan relations.

The Downing of Flight 8243 Could Jeopardize Russia-Azerbaijan Relations By Kazimier Lim Azerbaijan and Russia’s relations had been moving in a positive direction. The downing of Flight 8243 could jeopardize that.

*****

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter died Sunday at the age of 100. A one-term president in office from 1977 to 1981, Carter went on to have an auspicious post-presidential career that ranged from fiction writer to conflict mediator. Indeed, the latter efforts, both personally and through the Carter Center in Atlanta, were recognized in 2002 with a Nobel Peace Prize.

Carter is remembered as a “peacemaking president” largely for his efforts in brokering the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. But his presidency can be seen as more generally epitomizing a values-based approach to foreign policy, for better and for worse, columnist Paul Poast writes.

Jimmy Carter’s Values-Based Foreign Policy Wasn’t a Failure By Paul Poast Jimmy Carter’s presidency epitomized a values-based foreign policy for the United States—for better and for worse.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has once again named an interim vice president who will serve until VP Veronica Abad arrives in Turkey, where Noboa ordered her to go last week to serve as a temporary counselor to Ecuador’s embassy. That assignment came after Noboa’s temporary suspension of Abad, issued in November, was overturned by a court.

Abad has been embroiled in a heated dispute with Noboa since the two were elected in late 2023, with Noboa first sending Abad to Israel as a de facto exile and Abad calling for the president to be removed from office in August. As James Bosworth wrote then, Noboa’s various political disputes with his opponents have exposed him to charges of being a power-hungry president with autocratic tendencies, and his targeting of Abad only helps to reinforce that perception.

Ecuador’s Noboa Can’t Seem to Pick His Battles By James Bosworth Aug. 19, 2024 | The escalating fight between President Daniel Noboa and VP Veronica Abad will shape Ecuador’s politics for months. That’s bad for everyone.

*****

Acting South Korean President Choi Sang-mok said the country will maintain its strong alliance with Washington, in addition to trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, despite the current political instability in Seoul. Choi took over after the previous acting president was himself impeached, amid the fallout from currently suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol’s decision to declare martial law a month ago.

The political crisis has damaged South Korea’s international reputation and strained its partnership with the U.S., which was already expected to weaken when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated later this month. Still, as Mary Gallagher wrote recently, the crisis is unlikely to benefit China, a reflection of how much has fundamentally changed in China’s relations with its closest neighbors and trading partners over the past decade.

China Won’t Reap Any Benefits From South Korea’s Martial Law Debacle By Mary Gallagher Dec 10, 2024 | President Yoon’s declaration of martial law could strain South Korea’s relationship with the United States. That doesn’t mean it will benefit China.

*****

Ethiopia’s defense minister visited Somalia yesterday, marking the first bilateral visit between the neighboring countries since tensions flared a year ago over a deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland. The visit also comes after the two countries agreed last month to resolve the dispute stemming from that deal. Read more about the tensions and the first steps toward a resolution in this edition of the Daily Review from last month.

*****

In a post on X, Elon Musk said King Charles III of the U.K. should dissolve Parliament, marking his latest online criticism of British PM Keir Starmer’s government. Musk will also reportedly host an online chat with the leader of the German far-right party AfD next week, after he endorsed the party ahead of upcoming elections.

As we wrote in the Daily Review in November, moves like these are likely to become full-blown diplomatic incidents in just a few weeks, with Musk set to take on an advisory role in the incoming Trump administration.

More from WPR

Daniela Díaz and Joshua Collins on how Mexico curbs migration to the U.S. Mary Gallagher on China’s economic troubles. James Bosworth on the year ahead for Latin America. Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé on the challenges facing African countries.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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