Weekly Review: World Politics Review.

"Iran's weakening, ECOWS's path back to relevance."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analyis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 11 January 2025, 1449 UTC.

Content and Source:  E-mail subscription to "Weekly Review:  World Politics Review."

 https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzQZSZJxTCTxMPJDgKxgFLSggNnD

Please scroll down to read your selections.  Thanks for joiing us today.

Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

View this email in your browser.

January 11, 2025

Hi, everybody. I’m Judah Grunstein, WPR’s editor-in-chief, and this is a free preview of our Weekly Review newsletter, which recaps the highlights from our coverage this week and previews what we have planned for next week.

To get the full version of Weekly Review, along with access to all of our coverage, subscribe to WPR.

WPR Weekly Quiz

The latest installment of the WPR weekly quiz is out now. Test your knowledge for a chance to get a free month of full access to WPR.

Click here to take the quiz.

Top Stories

This week, in our Daily Review newsletter, we took a look at the week’s major developments:

Canada: PM Justin Trudeau announced Monday that he would step down as soon as his Liberal Party has chosen a new leader. Trudeau also suspended Parliament until late March, at which point a no-confidence vote is all but assured, setting up general elections that the Liberals are expected to lose. The announcement hardly comes as a surprise—Trudeau’s popularity has been waning for years amid economic issues, growing anti-immigration sentiment and a general mood of anti-incumbency. It’s also possible that Trudeau’s image as a progressive, youthful leader—already undercut by a series of scandals—is no longer such a great fit for the current landscape of global politics, which is increasingly confrontational and conflictual. To many Canadians, Trudeau may now seem out of step with the new world. (Read more here.) Lebanon: Lawmakers chose Gen. Joseph Aoun, the commander of the country’s military, to be the next president. His election marks a breakthrough for Lebanon, with the position having been vacant for more than two years amid a political impasse. It also reflects the shifting balance of power within Lebanon, with Hezbollah—both an armed group and political movement—severely weakened on both fronts by its war with Israel. Now, Aoun’s election could go a long way toward addressing Lebanon’s financial crisis, which has crippled the country for more than five years and left more than three-quarters of the population in poverty. At the same time, though, addressing the root causes of that crisis will take a lot more than electing a new president. (Read more here.) Venezuela: Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third term as president yesterday, nearly six months after fraudulently declaring himself the victor of Venezuela’s presidential election in July 2024. Maduro’s inauguration in many ways caps the multiyear, unsuccessful effort by Venezuela’s opposition and its international backers to turn that vote into a democratic turning point for the country. It also comes at a time when the future of the opposition looks increasingly uncertain, especially with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House in just over a week. It’s still unclear if Trump will take the same “maximum pressure” posture toward Venezuela that he took during his first term or if he will attempt to make diplomatic overtures toward Caracas, but either approach will likely leave Venezuela’s opposition with a bleak outlook. (Read more here.)

This Week’s Highlights

A Weakened Iran Doesn’t Mean a More Peaceful Middle East. On Monday, Abolghasem Bayyenat looked at what the decline of Iran’s power means for the stability of the Middle East.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, as well as Israel’s weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and decimation of Hamas in Gaza, have led to upbeat assessments in the West about the emergence of a more peaceful Middle East. But the near-collapse of Iran’s alliance system has left Tehran more exposed, which may drive it toward riskier and more destabilizing security strategies, while creating more room for miscalculation and reckless behavior by Iran’s regional adversaries. These two dynamics may combine to produce greater insecurity and instability in the Middle East. Upgrade to a paid subscription to get the full bulleted breakdown of the stories we highlight each week.

ECOWAS Has a Path Back to Relevance After the Sahelian States’ Exit. And on Wednesday, Jessica Moody examined the future of the Economic Community of West Africa States, or ECOWAS, in the wake of the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which will become official at the end of this month.

The three exiting countries have formed their own new regional group, the Alliance of Sahel States, or AES, and they are unlikely to rejoin ECOWAS anytime soon. ECOWAS has looked weak and disjointed throughout the ordeal that led to their departure. Its failure to convince any of these military-led countries to return to democracy was bad enough. But their unilateral withdrawal from the bloc will only exacerbate the sense that ECOWAS has no control over its members. This will be made worse by several conundrums the grouping now faces, beginning with whether it should allow AES members freedom of movement within ECOWAS, a very divisive issue among members. Upgrade to a paid subscription to get the full bulleted breakdown of the stories we highlight each week.

This Week’s Most-Read Story

Trump Has Lost the Plot on the U.S.-China Trade War. And in this week’s top story by pageviews, Mary Gallagher explains why in the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, Xi Jinping has been smarter and more strategic than Donald Trump:

China’s efforts to split alliances and reduce resistance to Chinese imports and investment will be made all the easier if Washington takes a combative approach to all countries in a bid to boost U.S. manufacturing at their expense. … This in turn highlights the limitations of Trump’s approach to trade and international relations more generally. He still doesn’t seem to grasp that, to win the U.S.-China trade war and the broader competition for global leadership, how he treats other countries will be just as important as how he treats Beijing.

What’s On Tap

And coming up next week, we’ve got:

A column by James Bosworth on the inauguration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after a fraudulent election. A briefing by John Boyce on the lagging implementation by member states of the EU’s minimum wage directive. And a column by Amanda Coakley on the arrival of Austria’s far-right FPO party at the threshold of power.

That’s it for this week. And if you have any comments or feedback, just hit reply to send them along, or contact me on BlueSky at @judah-grunstein.bksy.social.

—Judah Grunstein

This Week On WPR:

Africa

ECOWAS Has a Path Back to Relevance After the Sahelian States’ Exit

By Jessica Moody The three countries of the AES are set to leave ECOWAS. The existential shock could lead to a rejuvenation of the West African bloc.

Asia-Pacific

Climate Change—and Complacency—Is Drying Up the Caspian Sea

By Robert Looney The five countries that border the Caspian Sea are fighting over the body of water’s future. If it keeps losing water at the current pace, it might not have one.

Europe

When It Comes to Security, Europe Is Whistling Past the Graveyard

By Ulrike Franke Europe’s security situation is only getting more alarming, and yet efforts to address it are losing steam. The problem has a clear parallel.

Ahead of Germany’s Elections, Syrian Refugees Are Back in the Spotlight

By Aaron Allen After the fall of the Assad regime and in the run-up to elections, Germany is once again debating the status of nearly 1 million Syrians in the country.

Middle East & North Africa

A Weakened Iran Doesn’t Mean a More Peaceful Middle East

By Abolghasem Bayyenat With regime change in Syria and Hezbollah weakened, Iran’s alliance system has nearly collapsed. That doesn’t mean a peaceful Middle East is emerging.

United States

Trump Has Lost the Plot on the U.S.-China Trade War

By Mary Gallagher Victory in the U.S.-China trade war will go to the side that is best at persuading other countries that its version of globalization is the most attractive.

Global

Geopolitical Competition Is Heating Up in Antarctica

By James Bosworth Chile’s president visited Antarctica, an attempt to draw attention to the renewed great power competition playing out on the continent.

U.S.-China Digital Fragmentation Is Putting the World in a Bind

By Laura Mahrenbach Tech powers like the U.S. and China are pushing for ever more digital fragmentation. The rest of the world often bears the costs.

Men Need to Speak Up to End Rape Culture, Too

By Hilary Matfess The Pelicot trial shined a light on the pervasiveness of rape culture. It was also a reminder that men need to hold abusers accountable, too.

As Living Memory of World War II Fades, Its Lessons Are Being Forgotten

By Paul Poast 2025 will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and the founding of the United Nations. The lessons from both have been wasted.

Copyright © 2025 World Politics Review LLC, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive the free version of the Weekly Review. Our mailing address is: World Politics Review LLC 401 E. Jackson St, Ste 3300 Tampa, FL 33606 USA To be sure this email isn't filtered as spam, add newsletter@worldpoliticsreview.com to your address book or contacts list. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your email settings or opt out of all WPR emails.