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 "The EU-Mercosur deal, France withdrawl from Chad."

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December 21, 2024

Hi, everybody. I’m Judah Grunstein, WPR’s editor-in-chief, and this is a free preview of our Weekly Review newsletter, which recaps the highlights from our coverage this week and previews what we have planned for next week.

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Top Stories

This week, in our Daily Review newsletter, we took a look at the week’s major developments:

South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached by the National Assembly last Saturday, a move that marks a victory for the country’s constitutional order, as enough members of Yoon’s party were willing to put the country’s democracy ahead of their party allegiance. At the same time, though, it doesn’t undo the damage done by Yoon’s ill-fated attempt to declare martial law, which significantly hurt the country’s reputation on the international stage. Meanwhile, South Korea is now being led by interim President Han Duck-soo, a career technocrat with no electoral mandate who lacks the political capital to address the country’s myriad challenges. Still, while South Korea will need to re-establish political stability at home and repair the damage to its reputation abroad in the short term, that should ultimately be a manageable crisis in the medium term. (Read more here.) War in Ukraine: Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical and biological defense forces, was killed in Moscow on Tuesday in a bomb attack by Ukrainian operatives. The attack was the highest-profile assassination by Ukraine since the war began, and also served to highlight Russia’s use of chemical weapons in the conflict. Perhaps most notably, though, the assassination underscored both Ukraine’s and Russia’s shifting tactics in the war, with the conflict increasingly including a shadow war component fought outside the Ukrainian theater. Depending on how widely these shadow operations spread, they could have significant implications for the war, extending its reach far beyond Eastern Europe. (Read more here.) Syria: The U.S. became the latest country to send diplomats to Damascus to meet with representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, part of a mad scramble for diplomatic engagement—and influence—in post-Assad Syria. In the immediate aftermath of the Assad regime’s fall, it appears that Turkey has the most leverage with the transitional government in Damascus, largely because it had a head start, having already established ties with HTS in recent years. Now, though, Turkey’s influence in Damascus will almost certainly be diluted as other major powers—like the U.S., Russia and other regional states—start to make inroads with the new government. (Read more here.)

This Week’s Highlights

The EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet. On Monday, James Bosworth examined negotiations over a potential trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur—the Common Market of the South that includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

The EU and Mercosur have finally come to an agreement on the free trade deal they have been negotiating for the past 25 years. The deal had already been finalized by both sides in 2019, only to be held up during the EU ratification process due to concerns over the threat it posed to European—mainly French—agriculture. Meanwhile, Latin America’s side of the negotiations were shaken up by the Argentine presidential election and new President Javier Milei’s hostility to Mercosur. Upgrade to a paid subscription to get the full bulleted breakdown of the stories we highlight each week.

Chad’s Deby Is Taking a Big Risk in Kicking France Out. And on Wednesday, Nathanial Powell looked at Chad’s Nov. 28 decision to terminate its military cooperation agreement with France, which reportedly came as a big surprise to French authorities.

The current French military presence in Chad, numbering over 1,000 troops, dates from 1986. But apart from several short intervals, French troops have been in the country nearly continuously since their colonial-era conquest of the region around Lake Chad in 1900. Since Chad’s independence in 1960, French troops have served to protect successive governments against armed overthrow, while benefiting from a central geographical location for the projection of French power elsewhere on the continent. Many generations of French officers have served in the country, and the French military has a strong institutional attachment to its presence there. Upgrade to a paid subscription to get the full bulleted breakdown of the stories we highlight each week.

This Week’s Most-Read Story

Assad’s Brutal Prison System Was Also a Mass Extortion Racket. And in this week’s top story by pageviews, Francisco Serrano’s reported in-depth article examined a lesser-known aspect of the Syrian prison system under former dictator Bashar al-Assad.

[T]he extortion of prisoners’ families by state officials and the military was well-known among those affected by it over the past 13 years. Many families kept quiet about the practice, fearing that talking about it would either attract retribution from security agencies or worsen the detention conditions for their loved ones. The reality is that for years, Assad’s regime and members of its security apparatus have impoverished thousands of Syrian families by holding their loved ones as hostages.

What’s On Tap

And coming up next week, we’ve got:

A briefing by Aaron Allen on Germany’s out-of-date economic model. A briefing by Kanika Gupta on South Asia’s regional air pollution crisis. And the start of our series on what will shape global politics in 2025.

That’s it for this week. And if you have any comments or feedback, just hit reply to send them along, or contact me on BlueSky at @judah-grunstein.bksy.social.

—Judah Grunstein

This Week On WPR:

Africa

Chad’s Deby Is Taking a Big Risk in Kicking France Out

By Nathaniel Powell The withdrawal of France’s military from Chad may be popular, but it comes at the risk of regime security for Deby.

Ghana’s Democracy Is Not the Outlier It Is Made Out to Be

By Afolabi Adekaiyaoja Ghana’s elections delivered an opposition victory. They also revealed growing disillusionment with the country’s democratic governance.

The Americas

The EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet

By James Bosworth The EU and Mercosur have agreed to the final text of a major trade deal. Ratification still faces a lot of obstacles in Europe.

Asia-Pacific

Marcos’ All-In Bet on the U.S. Could Leave the Philippines Out in the Cold

By Joshua Kurlantzick In doubling down on the U.S.-Philippines alliance, President Marcos angered China. Trump’s return might leave him out in the cold.

Europe

Germany’s Backward-Looking Elections Could Be a Prelude to Disaster

By Alexander Clarkson Germany’s establishment parties are fighting over the past. That may only fuel more instability in the future.

Middle East & North Africa

Transitional Justice in Syria Will Be Better Off With Assad in Russia

By Charli Carpenter Assad’s flight to Russia may be a blessing in disguise, as it could allow for more effective transitional justice in Syria.

Assad’s Brutal Prison System Was Also a Mass Extortion Racket

By Francisco Serrano The Assad regime used its brutal prison system to extort the families of prisoners, impoverishing thousands.

Post-Assad Syria Will Test Turkey’s Thaw With the Gulf States

By Jonathan Fenton-Harvey The Middle East’s regional powers had been pursuing reconciliation. Syria’s post-Assad transition will put that to the test.

Global

The U.N. Security Council Is Finding Rare Consensus on Syria—For Now

By Richard Gowan Syria has long been a source of contention at the United Nations. Assad’s fall has created an opening for cooperation on a political transition.

As Long as There Is Territory to Fight Over, War Will Be With Us

By Paul Poast The persistence of war appears to be related to a hard truth: We live on a planet that is finite in land and space.

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