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"Iran-Pakistan rapproachement, China-South Korea."

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December 14, 2024

Hi, everybody. I’m Judah Grunstein, WPR’s editor-in-chief, and this is a free preview of our Weekly Review newsletter, which recaps the highlights from our coverage this week and previews what we have planned for next week.

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Top Stories

This week, in our Daily Review newsletter, we took a look at the week’s major developments:

Syria: A transfer of power is fully underway after former President Bashar al-Assad fled the country, ending his family’s dictatorial reign after more than 50 years. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, named Mohammed al-Bashir, who had overseen the rebel-held Idlib province, as caretaker PM during the transition. The end of a brutal dictator’s decadeslong reign has been understandably celebrated, but the scale of the challenges facing the new government also became increasingly clear this week. Transitional justice, state-building, reconstruction and widespread humanitarian needs will all need to be addressed for the new government to create any sort of stability in the country. Meanwhile, external actors remain involved in Syria, and how they respond in the coming weeks will be enormously consequential for Syria’s future. (Read all our coverage of Syria here.) East Africa: Ethiopia and Somalia have agreed to engage in negotiations to end a dispute over a deal signed nearly a year ago between Ethiopia and the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland. That deal—in which Ethiopia agreed in principle to diplomatically recognize Somaliland in exchange for lease of a port and coastline access—had been a significant source of tensions in the region, with Somalia viewing it as an attack on its sovereignty. The announcement that they will seek to resolve those tensions is a welcome development. Still, there remains some cause for wariness, including the potential for the UAE—a power player in East Africa—to play a spoiler role, as well as rumors that advisers to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are pushing for him to recognize Somaliland. (Read more here.) France: President Emmanuel Macron named Francois Bayrou, a centrist ally, as PM today, marking Macron’s second attempt to manage the fallout from his fateful decision to call snap legislative elections in June, which left parliament without a majority alliance as the country hurtles toward a budget crisis. His first attempt was to placate the right, which obviously failed, so he is now moving to a different strategy: hold the center in hopes of swaying the center left. It’s not clear that he can pull any votes from the leftist alliance, though, meaning Bayrou may end up facing the same political impasse the previous PM did as he tries to solve France’s budget problems. (Read more here.)

This Week’s Highlights

Iran and Pakistan Are Patching Up Ties but Ignoring the Hard Part. On Tuesday, Emil Avdaliani looked at the forces variously hindering and helping bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan.

This year has seen a high point in bilateral tensions between Iran and Pakistan, with the two neighbors accusing each other of harboring armed Baloch insurgent groups on either side of their border. In early 2024, Iran accused Pakistan of sheltering Jaish al-Adl, a Baloch Sunni militant separatist organization that Tehran blamed for terrorist attacks on Iranian soil on Jan. 3, while Pakistan responded with claims of Iranian support for Baloch separatists within its borders. These accusations set the stage for a tit-for-tat exchange of military strikes beginning Jan. 17. Since then, delicate diplomacy and careful crisis management have prevented further violence. Upgrade to a paid subscription to get the full bulleted breakdown of the stories we highlight each week.

China Won’t Reap Any Benefits From South Korea’s Martial Law Debacle. And also on Tuesday, Mary Gallagher examined how South Korea’s political crisis could affect the regional balance between the United States and China.

The political crisis in South Korea has eroded the country’s reputation as one of the most successful consolidated democracies in East Asia. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s sudden and capricious decision to attempt a self-coup has permanently tarnished him as a leader, and experts worry that if the crisis deepens, he may be emboldened to enact martial law a second time. For the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan and South Korea, this episode will undermine the fragile rapprochement negotiated in 2023 by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. And the foundations of a U.S.-South Korea alliance built on shared democratic values have been deeply shaken. Upgrade to a paid subscription to get the full bulleted breakdown of the stories we highlight each week.

This Week’s Most-Read Story

Latin America Can’t Let Its Guard Down on Venezuela-Guyana Tensions. And in this week’s top story by pageviews, James Bosworth explained why the year ahead could put a Venezuelan military campaign against neighboring Guyana back on the regional agenda:

In Venezuela, everyone—including top civilian allies and military commanders—watched Maduro lose the [country’s July presidential] election and then inelegantly steal it in a desperate attempt to hold onto power. The fact he could steal the vote shows he is still in control. But the fact he lost the vote by such a large margin, including in neighborhoods that were previously government strongholds, places the regime on much shakier ground today than it was a year ago. Maduro could see lashing out at a foreign enemy as a way to regain legitimacy and distract from domestic problems.

What’s On Tap

And coming up next week, we’ve got:

A reported in-depth article by Francisco Serrano on how Syrian security officials used the country’s brutal prison system to extort the families of detainees. A briefing on the implications of Assad’s fall in Syria for the recent rapprochements between Turkey and the Gulf states. And a briefing by Nathaniel Powell on the possible consequences of France’s military exit from Chad.

That’s it for this week. And if you have any comments or feedback, just hit reply to send them along, or contact me on BlueSky at @judah-grunstein.bksy.social.

—Judah Grunstein

This Week On WPR:

Africa

Africa’s Rural Economies Are Being Completely Transformed By Liam Taylor The African countryside is changing dramatically. Government policy needs to catch up.

The Americas

Latin America Can’t Let Its Guard Down on Venezuela-Guyana Tensions By James Bosworth Despite Maduro’s saber-rattling last year, Venezuela never invaded Guyana’s Essequibo. But regional leaders must remain vigilant.

Asia-Pacific

Myanmar’s Civil War Is Heading Toward Stalemate, Not Regime Change By Michael Hart Myanmar’s civil war has shifted dramatically. But the potential for the military junta’s collapse has been overstated. China Won’t Reap Any Benefits From South Korea’s Martial Law Debacle By Mary Gallagher President Yoon’s declaration of martial law could strain South Korea’s relationship with the United States. That doesn’t mean it will benefit China. Iran and Pakistan Are Patching Up Ties but Ignoring the Hard Part By Emil Avdaliani Iran and Pakistan are thawing relations. But they aren’t addressing the causes of tensions in their respective Baloch regions.

Europe

Europe Needs to Update Its Thinking for a Post-Assad Syria By Alexander Clarkson As Syria enters the post-Assad era, EU policymakers need to learn from their failed approach to the country’s civil war. Brussels Might Need to Hit the Brakes on EU Enlargement By John Boyce The war in Ukraine is driving a newfound enthusiasm for EU enlargement in Brussels. But the process might be moving too fast.

Middle East & North Africa

Syria’s Regime Change Is a Mixed Blessing for Israel By Frida Ghitis On balance, Assad’s fall in Syria will likely be a net positive for Israel for one reason: It weakens Iran.

United States

For the Rest of the World, Trump Is Already the U.S. President By Paul Poast For foreign leaders, the U.S. presidential transition to Donald Trump has already happened, for better and for worse.

Global

COP29 Was a Step Backward for Climate Justice and Equity By Martha Molfetas Wealthy nations can shape how and where the energy transition will happen. After a disappointing COP29, they need to do more.

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