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"For Europe, 2025 will be about breaking through political paralysis."

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Today we bring you the first in a series of articles on the outlook for the world in the coming year. Today, Alexander Clarkson looks at what 2025 will mean for Europe. You can read his piece below in full.

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For Europe, 2025 Will Be About Breaking Through Political Paralysis

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk walk ahead of other European leaders prior to a group photo at an EU summit, in Brussels, Belgium, Dec. 19, 2024 (AP photo by Geert Vanden Wijngaert).

By Alexander Clarkson

The trajectory of European politics in 2024 frequently generated the appearance of progress without achieving much concrete change. Whether elections resulted in parliamentary deadlock, as in France, or a big majority for a single party, as in the U.K., they rarely led to swift strategic successes.

How the European Union and the U.K. overcome such political paralysis to meet pressing internal challenges and guard against external threats—whether from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping or U.S. President-elect Donald Trump once he takes office in January—will be the dominant theme of European politics in 2025.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s shock move in June 2024 to call snap parliamentary elections was a bid to reaffirm his centrist movement’s grip on the legislative body. Instead, it led to parliamentary paralysis, with the left, center and far right each holding a more or less equal number of seats.

By contrast, the huge parliamentary majority won in the U.K. by the then-opposition Labour Party under Keir Starmer the following month seemed to embody the kind of political realignment that eluded Macron and other European Union leaders. Yet Starmer’s inability as prime minister to build momentum for economic growth or achieve the swift improvements in public services he had promised is another example of how structural constraints have limited European governments’ short-term room for maneuver.

If other governments that also enjoy strong majorities can only achieve incremental improvements to public services and economic growth, then Europe in 2025 will continue to witness public backlashes against governing parties of the left and right that promised quick results when they were still in opposition.

While European governments of every ideological hue have found themselves struggling . . . To read the rest, purchase a subscription now.

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