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"The Republican Trifecta.  Plus, Trump's appointments."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

November 12, 2024

	By German Lopez and Ian Prasad Philbrick

Good morning. We’re covering what Republicans will do with a governing trifecta — plus, Trump’s appointments, Uranus and pandemic drinking.

In Washington. Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times

A Republican trifecta

Republicans moved closer to claiming House control yesterday. They have won 214 of the 218 seats they need for a majority, and 16 races remain uncalled. With the House, Republicans would have full control of the federal government next year.

Donald Trump and his allies have carefully planned for this moment.

Today’s newsletter is the first in a series called “Trump’s Agenda,” which will look at what Republicans aim to get done. This first installment is akin to a table of contents. Future newsletters will go into more detail in the coming months.

The likely changes

Donald Trump at the southern border in August. Doug Mills/The New York Times

There are four areas in which a Republican Congress is most likely to make policy changes. For three of them, the party seems mostly united, and legislation does not necessarily have to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. (Some budget bills can pass with a simple majority.) For the last — aid to Ukraine — enough Republicans oppose a bill to keep it from becoming law.

1. Tax cuts: The signature legislation Trump signed in his first term was a 2017 law that cut taxes for almost all Americans, but especially the wealthy and corporations. Many of those cuts expire next year, and a Republican Congress is almost certain to extend most of them.

The biggest question is whether Congress will cut taxes even more, as Trump has said he favors (on tips, for example). That would make an already expensive tax bill even more costly — and lawmakers who are worried about the federal debt, including some Republicans, might oppose it.

2. Immigration: Nothing animated Trump on the campaign trail like immigration. He has promised mass deportations, which he could start by himself with executive action. But fully executing his plans will require money from Congress — for example, to hire border agents and build more of the wall.

Bigger changes to the immigration system would require bipartisan support to overcome a filibuster. Democrats have backed stricter entry rules before, but they might refuse to work with Trump on his signature issue. Some of Trump’s wealthy supporters have also pushed him to allow more legal immigration, but it’s unclear if Congress would agree.

3. Energy and climate: Congressional Republicans will probably reduce clean-energy funding, and Trump can unilaterally permit more oil and gas drilling and cut environmental regulations. Those moves will likely worsen climate change, but Republicans hope they will reduce energy costs.

There may also be opportunities for bipartisan legislating. Lawmakers from both parties want to streamline the permitting process, which could help oil, gas and clean energy projects move forward.

4. Ukraine: Trump and many congressional Republicans are skeptical about providing more aid for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. The aid approved earlier this year will probably run out sometime in 2025, at which point Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield will grow.

The maybes

Shipping containers in Baltimore.  Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA, via Shutterstock

At least three other parts of Trump’s agenda are more uncertain. Either Republicans are more divided on the issue or the change would require 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster. (Republicans are likely to have only 52 or 53.)

1. Tariffs: Trump campaigned on large tariffs — effectively sales taxes on foreign goods — to resurrect American manufacturing and to raise revenue. But some Republicans and business leaders are opposed. Tariffs historically mean higher prices, and they could lead other countries to retaliate with their own penalties on American products. Trump could try to impose tariffs unilaterally, but such a move would be vulnerable to legal challenges.

2. The safety net: Republicans have suggested they will balance budgets by cutting some government spending. They might let Obamacare health insurance subsidies expire next year, which would increase the number of uninsured people. Republicans also appear poised to slash Medicaid, food stamps and other programs that help poor and disabled Americans.

3. Voter ID: Republicans want to pass legislation requiring ID to register and vote, but they will need some Democratic support to pass it in the Senate. Republicans falsely claim that Democrats register undocumented immigrants and that elections are rigged. Still, such a law wouldn’t be unusual for a democracy; many other countries require ID.

(What about abortion? Republicans seem unlikely to pass nationwide abortion restrictions. Trump has distanced himself from a potential ban, and passing one would require eliminating the filibuster.)

Potential opposition

Democrats’ best hope for slowing this agenda involves public opinion. Some parts of the Republican agenda, like cuts to the safety net, are unpopular. Public protests could lead to their demise, as happened with efforts to repeal Obamacare in Trump’s first term.

Republicans also have their own disagreements, particularly between the old guard and the MAGA wing. The MAGA wing is more favorable to tariffs, immigration restrictions and cutting off aid to Ukraine. The old guard includes business-friendly Republicans who are more committed to free trade, more legal immigration and a foreign policy that stands up to Russia. With few votes to lose and higher stakes, the infighting could get worse, said our colleague Catie Edmondson, who covers Congress.

Ultimately, Republicans’ ability to realize their agenda may rest on how well they get along.

Related: Most of the undecided House races are in California. The state is very slow to count ballots.

THE LATEST NEWS

Trump Appointments

Marco Rubio Kenny Holston/The New York Times

Trump is expected to name Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state. Rubio has taken hard-line positions on China, Iran and Venezuela. He offered Elise Stefanik, the Republican congresswoman from New York, a role as the U.N. ambassador. Lee Zeldin, a former representative from New York, will lead the Environmental Protection Agency. He is expected to gut climate regulations. Michael Waltz, a representative from Florida, will be Trump’s national security adviser. He is a former Green Beret who has taken a tough stance on China. Aides like Susie Wiles, Trump’s incoming chief of staff, and advisers like Elon Musk are weighing in as Trump picks his cabinet.

More on the Administration

Wiles said Trump would move quickly to reinstate orders from his first term that President Biden had revoked, though she did not specify which ones. Trump has made staffing decisions that underscore his promise to deport undocumented immigrants en masse. He is expected to name the immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff.

More on Foreign Policy

In Iran, some members of a new, more moderate government have hopes of a lasting deal with the U.S. under Trump. The U.S. is the biggest trading partner for the European Union and Britain. Trump’s policies could put their economies at risk. Mexico’s car factories are braced for tariffs.

Congress

Representative Ruben Gallego and his wife, Sydney. Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times

Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, beat Kari Lake, a Republican, in the Arizona Senate race. Trump allies are working to block John Thune, an establishment Republican, from becoming the Senate leader.

International

The police in Amsterdam arrested five more people on assault charges after antisemitic attacks against Israeli soccer fans in the city. A record number of women will enter Japan’s Parliament. One of them beat an incumbent in a seat that three generations of his family had held. Read her story.

Other Big Stories

Members of the Navy’s Special Boat Teams repeatedly slam into waves.

The Navy’s elite speedboat crews show widespread signs of chronic brain trauma. More Americans are choosing not to have children. For their parents, there is a quiet grief in never becoming a grandparent. Americans started drinking more during the pandemic. They haven’t stopped.

Opinions

Beware, Elon Musk: Presidents have a history of discarding tycoons who helped get them elected, David Nasaw writes.

Just as some banks are too big to fail, the government should treat the housing market and agriculture as too essential to fail, Isabella Weber writes.

Here are columns by Paul Krugman on the price of mass deportation and Charles Blow on the end of the rainbow coalition.

MORNING READS

Uranus, captured by NASA’s Voyager 2 in 1986. NASA/JPL

Space: Much of our understanding of Uranus comes from a single flyby nearly 40 years ago. But the planet may have been having a freak event just as the space probe passed.

Strange rituals: In the theater, you can’t say “Macbeth” or whistle.

Travel: To beat the summer crowds, cruise companies are offering more winter options in the Mediterranean.

Lives Lived: The soulful, blues-steeped saxophone playing of Lou Donaldson, known as Sweet Poppa Lou, was a bedrock of the jazz scene for three-quarters of a century. He died at 98.

SPORTS

N.F.L.: The Dolphins outlasted the Rams, 23-15, clearing a path for an unlikely playoff bid.

Football: John Robinson, who coached the Rams after overseeing the powerhouse U.S.C. teams of the 1970s, died at 89.

Women’s soccer: Lily Yohannes, a 17-year-old midfield star who could have become a Netherlands player, announced she would stick with the U.S. women’s national team.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Martha Stewart Netflix

Was Martha Stewart the original influencer? The new Netflix documentary “Martha” examines the homemaking diva’s illustrious, and complicated, career and personal life.

The documentary has gained a lot of traction online — especially the part when Stewart says that a columnist who criticized her “is dead now, thank goodness.” (She isn’t.)

More on culture

From left, Élis and Vanessa Bond of Mi Kwabo in Paris; and Aji Akokomi of Akoko in London. Delali Ayivi

The West African diaspora is making some of the most exciting food in Europe and America. Vogue has its first guest editor. Anna Wintour let Marc Jacobs do her job — for a moment. Alice Mason was New York City’s broker to the elite and a master of the art of hosting. She also harbored a secret that could have excluded her from high society. Is the love song dying? These charts from The Pudding show that how we sing about love is getting more complex.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Roast chicken thighs in an angry sauce.

Avoid eating microplastics with these tips.

Use a better mug.

Shop early Black Friday sales.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were arthropod and hardtop.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German and Ian

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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