Semafor Flagship-The World Today

"Trump rejects Iran offer, China's export rebound, Putin predicts war's end."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 11 May 2026, 0035 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Moscow  Beijing  Venice May 11, 2026 Read on the web Flagship Sign up for our free email briefings→   The World Today Trump rejects Iran offer China’s exports rebound US-China misunderstandings Putin predicts war’s ending Cognitive dissonance in US Chipmaker turns to wind Memory shortage pains Starmer dealt major blow Drama at Venice Biennale Saffron trade suffers A biblical story of motherhood. ↓ 1 Trump rejects latest Iran peace proposal Stringer/Reuters US President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran’s response to Washington’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” Tehran didn’t resolve the US’ demands over its nuclear program, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump’s rejection is set to prolong the countries’ uneasy stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions flared in the Gulf over the weekend, as the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar all reported attacks from Iranian drones; a strike also briefly set a ship ablaze. But there was some indication of diplomatic progress to ease global supply concerns: A Qatari liquefied natural gas shipment transited the strait for the first time since the beginning of the war, following talks between Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan. ↓ 2 China’s exports rise ahead of US summit Go Nakamura/Reuters China’s exports rebounded in April as overseas buyers rushed to stockpile goods in the second month of the Iran war. The data also showed Beijing’s trade surplus widened, just ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China later this week. Trump has taken issue with the surplus: The leaders are expected to cover trade, Iran, and AI, senior US officials said Sunday, but they tempered expectations of major investment deals. An “underlying asymmetry will persist” in the superpowers’ uneasy economic détente, a Council on Foreign Relations expert argued, with Beijing feeling it has an advantage because of its dominance in critical minerals. For more on the upcoming summit, sign up for Semafor China. → ↓ 3 Misunderstandings test US-China ties The US and China are both heading into a landmark summit in Beijing this week with fundamental misunderstandings of the other, analysts said. Beijing is gripped by a “dangerous new overconfidence” stemming from an entrenched belief in American decline, one expert wrote, as Western scholarly frameworks have been purged from academia in China in favor of nationalist narratives. On the US side, officials misread Beijing’s ability to absorb pressure and don’t realize that “high-level engagement… does not necessarily signal concession,” two analysts wrote in The Diplomat. Washington is starting to run low on China experts, as fewer Americans study in China in part because they fear it could hurt them career-wise. Diplomacy “risks being built on an incomplete picture,” a Harvard scholar wrote. ↓ 4 Putin says Ukraine war is near end Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via Reuters Russian President Vladimir Putin said he believes the Ukraine war is “coming to an end,” hours after vowing victory over Kyiv at a pared-down Victory Day parade devoid of its usual military hardware display. The Kremlin’s spokesperson tempered Putin’s remarks, saying “reaching a peace agreement is a very long road with many complicated details.” Longer-term peace talks remain stalled, with both sides accusing each other of violating a three-day, US-brokered ceasefire announced Friday. While Putin has vowed to continue fighting until all of Moscow’s goals are achieved, Russia’s battlefield momentum has slowed: At the current rate, it could take over three decades to fully seize the Donbas region, The New York Times reported. ↓ 5 US job figures underscore dissonance US job growth blew past expectations for a second month, according to a new report that revealed the diverging narratives of the world’s largest economy. Employers said they added 115,000 jobs in April, but according to a survey of households, employment is shrinking rapidly. The reading reflects the “spectacular cognitive dissonance” that is defining the US economy, historian Adam Tooze wrote Sunday. Stock markets, for example, are hitting fresh records even as global fuel shortages persist. In tech, the AI boom feels inevitable, but “lift the lid” on the sector’s funding, and the “self-feeding” nature of the financing is striking, Tooze argued: “The complacency of the current moment may morph into something far more unstable and potentially dangerous.” ↓ 6 TSMC looks to wind to blunt energy shocks Ann Wang/Reuters Chip giant TSMC agreed to buy 100% of the power from what will be Taiwan’s biggest wind farm as it scrambles to meet growing demand and reduce exposure to energy shocks. Taiwan is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and the Iran war severely restricted supply. The country is racing to develop alternatives, including nuclear and renewables. TSMC alone accounts for nearly 10% of the island’s electricity consumption, and that share is expected to surge as demand booms for AI chips. AI firms are increasingly providing their own power as data centers strain the grid: In the US, at least 46 data center projects plan to add “behind-the-meter” electricity, accounting for about 30% of all planned data center capacity. ↓ 7 Gaming prices rise on RAM shortage Issei Kato/Reuters Nintendo apologized for hiking the price of its Switch 2 console. The Japanese gaming giant, like most consumer electronics companies, has been hit by the rapidly increasing cost of random-access memory, which has seen unprecedented demand thanks to the rise of AI. Sony announced that it expected to sell fewer PlayStation 5s this year as a result of the crunch and for the same reason has not yet decided when to release the PS6. Major PC manufacturers have warned of upcoming price increases, smartphone makers are expected to pass costs on to consumers soon, and an industry analysis group said that RAM shortages are likely to persist into 2027. ↓ Download This Angel Studios is crowdsourcing a “values-based” alternative to Hollywood. The brothers behind the faith-and-values-driven studio, known for its increasingly popular blockbusters, join Mixed Signals to explain how their two-million-member Guild subverts the traditional greenlighting process. Max and Ben ask the Harmon brothers whether Angel Studios is a niche Christian media company or something with genuine mainstream scale. Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now. ↓ 8 Starmer fights on after poor election showing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday pledged to hang on after his party suffered the worst local election losses for a governing faction in decades. The results of last week’s races, largely seen as a referendum on Starmer, triggered calls for his resignation; he is planning a “reset” speech on Monday laying out his agenda, with closer EU ties one key policy. But his government hasn’t eased voters’ cost-of-living concerns, which have intensified in recent months: 80% of Britons are worried the Iran war will make food more expensive. Starmer has “had several resets and reboots to his still young government,” a BBC journalist wrote, and while he isn’t one to give up easily, “history is less on his side.” ↓ 9 Geopolitics upends cultural summits Manuel Silvestri/Reuters The Venice Biennale, the world’s most prestigious international art exhibition, is engulfed in controversy this year. The inclusion of Russia, which is participating for the first time since the 2022 Ukraine invasion, has set off protests, while the Biennale’s international jury resigned following backlash over its decision to not award prizes to artists from countries whose leaders are accused of crimes against humanity. Dozens of artists also withdrew over the inclusion of Israel. The Biennale is one of several upcoming cultural events that risk being overshadowed by geopolitics: Five countries are boycotting this week’s Eurovision Song Contest because of Israel’s participation, while experts warned of security risks to the FIFA World Cup in North America, stemming from Iran’s participation amid the ongoing war. ↓ 10 Iran war hurts saffron trade Sharafat Ali/Reuters The war in Iran is choking the global saffron trade. Saffron is the world’s most expensive spice, and Kashmir grows the best, Foreign Policy reported, but for decades, cheaper Iranian exports have undercut the market. Iran, which produces more than 90% of the world’s saffron, has blocked food exports during the war, which should be an opportunity for Kashmiri farmers — but climate stress and the failure of a government irrigation program have driven many farmers out of the business. Worse still, a dreadful harvest in Kashmir last autumn — about 20% of normal output — has left remaining growers with almost no stockpiles, so despite saffron’s sky-high prices, farmers cannot make the most of the windfall. ↓ Correction Item four in Friday’s Flagship incorrectly stated the US and South Africa held trade talks. They attended preliminary talks on reaching resources agreements. ↓ Flagging Trump-Xi summit: In one of the most highly anticipated meetings of the year, US President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing, accompanied by top CEOs, to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping (Thursday-Friday), with trade, AI, and the Iran war on the agenda. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is stopping in Japan and South Korea before China. Diplomacy: France’s Emmanuel Macron and Kenya’s William Ruto will co-host the Africa-France Summit in Nairobi, holding two days of discussions on trade, investment, and cooperation (Monday-Tuesday). And India will host a BRICS ministerial meeting, with the deepening global energy crisis set to be front and center (Thursday-Friday). Energy: The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report (Wednesday), with key forecasts on global supply and demand due to attract outsized attention amid the war in Iran. Culture: The 79th Cannes Film Festival opens, featuring the world premiere of Pierre Salvadori’s La Vénus Électrique (Tuesday); while in Vienna, the Eurovision Song Contest will bring together pop acts from 35 countries who compete throughout the week for a spot in the final (Saturday). ↓ Semafor Recommends The Red Tent by Anita Diamant. An American journalist and author of six nonfiction works about contemporary Judaism, Diamant tells a fictional re-creation of the story of Dinah, the daughter of Jacob and Leah and a largely silent figure in the book of Genesis. Reimagining Dinah’s life, Diamant explores the world of women in biblical times, examining female friendship, sexuality, and motherhood in a deeply patriarchal society. Diamant brings life to the biblical narrative, turning Scripture into an intimate and immersive historical world, though it’s “far from being a saccharine tale of female togetherness,” The Guardian wrote. Buy The Red Tent from your local bookstore. ↓ Semafor Spotlight The CEO Signal: The CEO behind Lysol and Durex ‘pivoted hard’ for a new era of TikTok-driven commerce. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for briefings from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here. Read our privacy policy. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. 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