Geopolitical Monitor
Geopolitical news and information from "Geopolitical Monitor."
Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents. Accessed on 10 May 2026, 0004 UTC.
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
The Tide Is Turning in Ukraine
Faced with mounting battlefield stagnation, economic pressure, and technological adaptation, time is increasingly not on Russia’s side.
Bipartisan but Bounded: The Limits of US Senatorial Support for Taiwan
The US congressional consensus on Taiwan still matters. But amid a widening gap between commitment and capability, it matters less than it used to.
Syrian Refugee Returns After Assad: Political Imperatives and Humanitarian Realities
Examining Syrian refugee populations in neighboring countries and the European Union, as well as the challenges faced by host governments and the al-Sharaa regime in inducing them to return and help rebuild a country devastated by civil war.
The Strait of Malacca Is Malaysia’s Industrial Spine
Malacca doesn’t just provide Malaysia with geographic relevance. It also represents industrial opportunity, but only if Kuala Lumpur moves to take advantage of it.
The British Monarch Is Rediscovering Their Voice in Foreign Parliaments
Recent speeches by King Charles III in the US and Italy illustrate how non-elected heads of state are regaining a non-marginal role in the processes of legitimizing major foreign and security policy choices.
Cebu Summit Thaw? Thailand and Cambodia Meet with 2001 MOU in the Balance
Calls to revoke a 2001 MOU delineating shared borders risk a severe breach in Cambodia–Thailand relations. The ASEAN Cebu summit can help get bilateral relations back on track.
AI with Chinese Characteristics
What does victory for Beijing in the US-China AI competition look like? Tighter control for the CCP at home and elevated criminal, military, censorship, and data security risks abroad.
A Gatekeeper in Washington: The Limits to Canada’s EU Defense Pivot
After decades of near total dependence on the United States, Canada is now looking to Brussels to diversify its defense relationships. But decades of supply chain and regulatory integration with the US defense industry will limit what’s achievable in the short-term.
Is ‘North Koreanization’ the Only Logical Move Left for Iran?
If the Iranian regime survives, what comes next is not a choice between proxies and nukes. It is the recognition that nukes are now the only rational security option.
Indonesia’s ‘Observer Inflation’ Isn’t the Crisis; Household Inflation Is
The 'inflation' that matters most in Indonesia today is not found in commentary or critique. It is found in hospital bills, school fees, rent payments, and grocery receipts.
India’s Gulf Calculus: Can Chabahar Port Anchor a Strategic Role?
India must insert itself into the fray of the Iran war before the diplomatic space is occupied by others, and leveraging the economics of Chabahar port and the INSTC is the best way to do it.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, US-EU Tariffs, Mali Insurgency)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, the bottom falling out of US-EU relations, and how an expanding insurgency threatens state collapse in Mali.
UAE Leaves OPEC: A Structural Realignment in Global Oil Markets?
The UAE’s exit from OPEC marks the third member in seven years to leave the cartel. Given looming peak oil demand and OPEC’s dwindling share of global production: it won’t be the last.
Energy Dominance: How the Iran War Reveals America’s Strategic Position
The Iran war and other geopolitical ruptures are allowing Washington to reposition itself from systemic guarantor to indispensable supplier. This new role generates revenue where the previous one generated only obligation, while simultaneously converting the dependency it once protected others from into a dependency directed at Washington itself.
Abu Dhabi’s OPEC Exit and the Architecture No One Admitted Was Breaking
UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC may have come as a shock to some, but this is a decision that was made incrementally, across fifteen years, and in theaters far from any OPEC meeting room.
Able Archer 83 and the Dual-Contingency Trap: Lessons in Effective Deterrence
Able Archer 83 showed how a routine Cold War military exercise could escalate toward nuclear confrontation. The US, Japan, and South Korea can learn from it when preparing for a dual contingency in the Indo-Pacific.
Capability Gaps and Uneven Implementation: Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
Canada is present in the Indo-Pacific, but its engagement lacks the policy and material discipline required to shape outcomes. The costs of this approach will only increase as China consolidates its influence in the region.
The Norm That Protects Scammers: ASEAN’s Non-Interference in the Mekong
The ‘ASEAN Way’ is curtailing the ability of states to collectively crack down on Illicit scam centers operating in plain sight in Southeast Asia.
Iran Has Become Incompatible with Gulf Security
The most important outcome of this war is not the ceasefire; it is the emergence of a new regional baseline where Iran is no longer viewed as a manageable competitor but a persistent threat actor that must be contained.
Win-Win for Defense Industry? Canada Joins EU SAFE Instrument
The involvement of Canadian defense firms in EU’s SAFE instrument could serve as a genuine bridge between two defense industrial bases that have historically operated in separate ecosystems. But the path to Brussels is paved with grand plans that never came to fruition.
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.