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| Hello and welcome back to the Daily Review. | It’s looking increasingly likely that the U.S. and Iran will reach a framework agreement to end the war as soon as this weekend. The breakthrough was the truce between Israel and Lebanon, which was agreed yesterday and so far appears to be holding. That led Iran—which has maintained all along that its ceasefire with the U.S. applies to Lebanon—to announce this morning that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial vessels. | The current ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire on April 21, but if negotiations continue to make progress, it can always be extended to allow time for a final agreement. Based on what’s been publicly reported so far, a final deal would call for the verified removal and/or downgrading of Iran’s current stockpile of enriched uranium as well as a moratorium on further nuclear enrichment for certain number of years. In exchange, the U.S. would unfreeze billions of dollar in Iranian assets, though it may seek to impose restrictions on how the money can be used. | If all of this sounds familiar, that’s because it is. Back in late February, before the U.S. and Israel launched the war, Iran had agreed to “zero stockpiling” of nuclear material. The foreign minister of Oman, who was mediating between Washington and Tehran at the time, said Iran had agreed to down-blend its highly enriched uranium and convert it to nuclear fuel—a process that is irreversible—and had also accepted “full and comprehensive verification” by the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog. | Simply put, Iran is not offering anything that wasn’t already on the table before the war. So what has this war been for? Why did thousands of people have to die? Why did the global economy have to experience its most dire energy shock in decades? Why did the United States have to destroy much of its credibility with allies and partners around the world? | President Donald Trump and his aides will no doubt continue to argue that the war accomplished its objectives of degrading Iran’s military capabilities. But those capabilities can and will be rebuilt, even though the damage wrought by the war cannot be undone. | | Sponsor | AI help, without the trust tax. | | Most AI tools ask you to trade your data for intelligence. Norton Neo doesn't. It's the first safe AI-native browser built by Norton, and it gives you powerful built-in AI without handing your privacy over to get it. Search, summarize, and write with AI built directly into your browser. Your data stays yours. Your context stays private. | Built-in VPN, anti-fingerprinting, and ad blocking come standard. No add-ons. No setup. No compromises. | Fast. Safe. Intelligent. That's Neo. | Download Norton Neo | | The conventional wisdom is that NATO is in deep trouble. The Trump administration has heaped scorn upon Europe, openly threatened to annex the sovereign territory of Denmark and Canada, and has recently stepped up its threats to withdraw from the alliance. Despite all of that, WPR’s Paul Poast argues, NATO will be fine. | | | Thailand’s progressives hoped this would be the year when they finally overcame a system skewed against them. Instead, the main reformist party turned in a disappointing performance in elections that were held in February, as voters backed conservative Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party. Now, Thai progressives are left wondering whether party politics offers a pathway for change at all, Andrew Nachemson reports from Chiang Mai. | | | U.S.: A set of diplomatic cables obtained by Politico show that the Iran war is undermining the United States’ global standing, particularly in Muslim countries. The cables were written by U.S. diplomats posted to the capitals of Bahrain, Azerbaijan and Indonesia. In all cases, the cables pointed out that local popular opinion was turning against the United States, and asked for more freedom to craft their own social media campaigns to counter the anti-U.S. messaging from Iran. | Myanmar: Former President Win Myint was released from prison Friday following an amnesty decree by newly inaugurated President Min Aung Hlaing to mark the country’s New Year celebrations. Win Myint served together with former leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi until a 2021 coup orchestrated by Min Aung Hlaing that overthrew the civilian government and imprisoned its leaders. Today’s pardon order did not result in the release of the 80-year-old Aung San Suu Kyi; instead, her 27-year sentence was reduced by 4.5 years. | Brazil, Spain: World leaders from more than a dozen small and mid-sized countries who are concerned about dangers to democracy and the rise of the far right will gather in Spain this weekend for the fourth “Meeting in Defense of Democracy.” The gathering was launched by Brazil and Spain in 2024. In addition to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, the leaders of Mexico, South Africa, Colombia, Uruguay and several other countries will attend. | Some analysts have framed the meeting in the context of a growing push by middle powers to bolster the rules-based international order that has been abandoned by the Trump administration. While Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a splash at Davos earlier this year with a speech arguing that middle powers should stop pretending the liberal order still exists, Charli Carpenter argued in WPR in January that Carney’s assessment was too pessimistic. “It is evidence of the power of the existing world order that America’s allies see those rules and values as integral to the rest of the world’s national and global interests; and that they are finally willing to use means that don’t depend on American power—and against America itself if necessary—to enforce them,” Carpenter wrote. | | Sudan: More than $1 billion in aid was pledged for war-ravaged Sudan at a conference in Berlin this week, surpassing the organizers’ funding target. The United Nations has estimated that meeting the need for humanitarian aid in Sudan this year would require more than $2 billion. While the money committed this week has the potential to save many lives, “in the long run, what Sudan truly needs is not to treat the symptoms, but to end the war itself,” WPR Editor-in-Chief Elliot Waldman wrote in the Daily Review Wednesday. “That requires not aid, but accountability: For the genocidaires, for the war profiteers, and for the governments fomenting conflict to serve their economic and geopolitical objectives.” | | | More from WPR | | Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.