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| Hi everyone, this is Hampton Stephens, WPR’s publisher, sitting in for Editor-in-Chief Elliot Waldman. Welcome back to our Weekly Review, where we recap the highlights from our coverage this week and preview what’s on deck. | If you have any comments or feedback, just hit reply to send them along. | Top Stories | This week in our Daily Review top stories, Elliot looked at President Trump’s attempts to secure help in opening the Strait of Hormuz, and at U.S. policy toward Cuba. And Editor-at-Large Judah Grunstein examined the Iran war’s implications for U.S. power. (Adjust your settings here to make sure you receive the Daily Review in your inbox each weekday.) | | | | | Coalition of the Unwilling: President Donald Trump’s requests to U.S. allies for help securing the Strait of Hormuz are landing with a thud. In the process, he has exposed not just the difficulty of keeping the critical shipping lane open in the face of Iranian attacks, but also the attenuation of Washington’s ability to build coalitions. | So far, Trump has appealed to China, France, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. to join a “team effort” to reopen the maritime chokepoint through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply—not to mention sizeable shares of other critical commodities—passes. All of them have either declined, equivocated or remained silent. (Read more here.) |
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| | | | | Will Trump Pivot to Cuba?: Even as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran grinds on amid a mounting human and economic toll, Trump has suggested he could soon turn his attention to Cuba. On Monday, he said he expected to have the “honor” of “taking Cuba in some form.” | A day earlier, Trump clarified that his priority—at least for now—is his war in the Middle East. But The New York Times reports that U.S. officials have demanded that President Miguel Diaz-Canel step down as part of their ongoing negotiations with Havana. | For Trump, that would be an opportunity to pivot away from the grinding conflict in the Middle East and claim a quick win in Cuba. But would the Communist government, which has long been proud of its resistance to U.S. “imperialism,” agree to a such a humiliating concession? It may have little choice in the matter. (Read more here.) |
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| | | | | The Iran War and American Power: In spurning multilateralism and the American self-restraint that makes it viable, the Trump administration seemed to have notched a succession of short-term gains, whether in the trade concessions made by U.S. partners to avoid heavier threatened tariffs or the seeming defanging of the Chavista regime in Venezuela. | In assuming that a war against Iran would be a similar cakewalk, however, the Trump administration has now put itself in a difficult position. Make no mistake, Iran will emerge from this war severely weakened. But even in the event of a very unlikely victory, so too will the United States, as it will have eroded the legitimacy that self-restraint lent to American power. (Read more here.) |
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| Africa Is Already Feeling the Impact of the Iran War. On Wednesday, Chris Olaoluwa Ògúnmọ́dẹdé looked at how the the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East is impacting Africa. | For Africa, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has significant economic, security and diplomatic implications. The most immediate impact has been felt through global energy markets. The conflict has disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to a spike in fuel, transport and food costs across Africa. Some nations may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices, but most African countries are net energy importers, and reduced supplies, exacerbated by currency pressures and logistics issues, have resulted in long lines of people waiting to buy fuel across the continent. The war's impact on energy costs is not the only blow for African economies. The conflict could also affect the more than 1 million Africans who work and reside in the Persian Gulf, and who are responsible for sizable remittance flows to their home nations. A prolonged conflict risks causing mass unemployment, return migration and reduced income for these workers, endangering economic stability on the continent. Shipping companies are once again diverting vessels from the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing freight costs and delivery times for goods heading to African ports. Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways have also canceled hundreds of flights since the war broke out. The war's proximity to the Horn of Africa could further destabilize a region whose strategic importance has made it a theater of geopolitical competition. The war could further intensify and militarize rising tensions involving Eritrea, Ethiopia and the northern Tigray region by fueling proxy conflicts linked to Middle Eastern states and their local clients. Djibouti and Somaliland are thought to be particularly vulnerable to the risk of retaliatory strikes. Critics argue that Somaliland's expanding ties with Israel could further destabilize the region by placing it in the middle of yet another Middle East rivalry. The war has also underscored the complicated geopolitical landscape African governments are navigating. Most notably, there have been virtually no explicit criticisms made of the U.S. and Israel, explained by the fear in African capitals of antagonizing President Donald Trump. If there is one valuable takeaway for African states, it should be that the autonomy they rightly desire must come with the realization that they cannot outsource their economic development and security to foreign patrons whose interests don't necessarily align with their own, particularly in moments of crisis.
| Shahed Drones Are Now Taking Center Stage in the Iran War, Too. Also on Wednesday, Ulrike Franke looked at a weapon system that has emerged as a central factor in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. | Iran has been using its Shahed drone to target U.S. military bases and civilian infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states, to generate regional pressure on the administration of President Donald Trump to end the war. In doing so, Iran is also forcing the U.S. and its Gulf partners to expend precious and expensive Patriot missiles to shoot down the comparatively cheap drones. Iran has used some 2,000 of them to attack the Gulf states, successfully damaging U.S. military bases in the region and killing six U.S. service personnel so far. The Shahed-136 is a so-called “kamikaze drone,” a loitering munition with an explosive warhead of up to 40 kilograms that can circle above and then dive into its target, destroying itself and the target on impact. At an estimated range of 1,500 kilometers, its reach is enough to threaten Israeli territory. The Shahed-136 is not particularly sophisticated—made out of plywood and Styrofoam, and capable only of flying along preprogrammed routes. Shaheds have so far been intercepted at extremely high rates by the Gulf countries, but in order to do so, they had to use very expensive aerial defense systems to counter a drone that can be produced for just $50,000 each. Thus, for now, Iran's drone war in the Gulf is one of attrition, saturation and disruption. Over time, Iran might also learn from Russia, which quickly began to mass produce its own version of the Shahed after Iran delivered hundreds of drones following the initial difficulties of the invasion of Ukraine. There are already rumors of Iranian-Russian technology exchanges, and Iran is also likely to learn from Russian tactics in Ukraine, such as attacking a target from multiple directions to overwhelm air defenses or with high numbers of drones to saturate defense systems. In a fascinating development, last year, the U.S. military announced it had developed a drone system known as the LUCAS, a virtual Shahed clone, reverse-engineered with the same measurements. At a cost of just $35,000 apiece, it is now being used in U.S. attacks on Iran. Drones, and more specifically loitering munitions like the Shahed and LUCAS, are now a central feature of the Iran War. And if the conflict continues, we can expect to see similar innovation cycles between drone and counter-drone systems as in Ukraine.
| This Week’s Most-Read Story |  | President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listens, in Washington, Sept. 2, 2025 (AP photo by Mark Schiefelbein). |
| Trump May Not Need a ‘Board of Peace.’ He Has the U.N. Under His Thumb. And in this week’s top story by page views, Richard Gowan considered an uncomfortable reality for the United Nations’ remaining admirers: | The bulk of U.N. member states are so keen to maintain good relations with Washington—and nervous that the U.S. could walk away from the body altogether—that they give it an easy ride in New York. … This is a significant shift from the days of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, when council members were willing to challenge the U.S. over its refusal to condemn Israel’s grinding campaign against Hamas in Gaza. … By contrast, the Trump administration has shown that it is not only largely impervious to criticism, but also able to be ruthless when it wants to drive an initiative through the Security Council. Last September, Washington persuaded skeptical members to back a plan for a new Gang Suppression Force to fight lawlessness in Haiti. In November, it rushed through a resolution endorsing Trump’s ceasefire plan for Gaza, including an endorsement for the Board of Peace to oversee the territory. Some members grumbled that the details were hazy, but went along with the proposal anyway. … It would almost seem ungrateful of Trump were he to dismiss an institution that he can dominate with so little effort. |
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| What’s On Tap | And here’s what’s coming up next week: | Patrick Graney on Guatemala’s continuing struggle against corruption, institutional capture and violence. Joshua Kurlantzick and Annabel Richter on the ways the Iran war is reshaping how Asia thinks about energy. John Boyce on the revival of nuclear power in Europe.
| That’s it for now. Until next week, | —Hampton Stephens | | This Week On WPR | Africa | | Americas | |  | | Will Trump Pivot to Cuba? | Even as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran grinds on, Trump has suggested he could soon turn his attention to Cuba. |
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| | Asia-Pacific | | | Europe |  | | Coalition of the Unwilling | President Donald Trump’s requests to U.S. allies for help securing the Strait of Hormuz are landing with a thud. |
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| | Middle East & North Africa | | | United States | | Global | | |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.