Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering how major Asian economies are adapting to the global energy crisis sparked by the Iran war, and the murky implications of prediction market platforms in an “America First” era. | But first, here’s WPR’s editor-in-chief Elliot Waldman with his take on today’s top story: |  | An aerial view of the funeral of Iranian Supreme National Security Council chief Ali Larijani, who was killed by a US-Israeli airstrike, Tehran, March 18, 2026 (DPA photo via AP) |
| President Donald Trump’s often confusing claims that his administration has resumed diplomatic talks with Iran, even as thousands more U.S. troops head to the Middle East, raise the question of who is left standing in the Iranian leadership to speak with. The most likely interlocutor is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the conservative speaker of parliament who previously served as mayor of Tehran and as a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. U.S. officials insist they’re already negotiating with him, though Ghalibaf himself denies this. | Amid a U.S.-Israeli assassination campaign that has killed many of the Islamic Republic’s senior leaders, Ghalibaf is a consummate regime insider and also happens to be one of the few remaining figures with substantial influence and clout in Tehran—particularly after the relatively pragmatic security chief Ali Larijani was killed in a U.S.-Israeli air strike. White House officials even reportedly view Ghalibaf as a potential future leader of Iran that they can work with, akin to Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez. | Yet for all the focus on Ghalibaf, analysts note that Larijani’s successor as head of the powerful Supreme National Security Council arguably deserves more attention. … Purchase a subscription now to read the rest and get the full top story in your Daily Review email every day. |
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| | Before the first bombs fell on Tehran, speculators were already running proposition bets on every discrete scenario the war might produce, such as which city would absorb the first retaliatory strike, whether Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz and whether the Islamic Republic would outlast the spring. On prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, speculation on unilateral action related to tariffs, sanctions, seizures, airstrikes, and invasions allows a narrow circle of insiders with foreknowledge to gain trading advantages. Welcome to the “American First” futures market, where institutional wreckage can be monetized, Candace Rondeaux writes. | | | The impact of the oil and LNG shock caused by the Iran war has been pronounced in Asia, where many leading economies produce limited amounts of nuclear energy and depend heavily on imported fossil fuels from the Middle East. And most Asian economies are only going to see their energy needs skyrocket in the next decade due to their young populations, the expansion of AI data centers and rapid economic growth. Not not every Asian state will have to shift its energy strategy, but most are set to face major short-term problems. Joshua Kurlantzick and Annabel Richter look at how the region’s governments are planning to ensure energy sufficiency in the future. | | | Sponsor | | Sponsored Unit 3877 Operational fiction and tradecraft analysis for the serious espionage reader. | | Subscribe |
| | Africa: “China’s decision to end value-added tax rebates on solar panel exports and phase out incentives for making battery storage equipment could push up the cost of solar installations in Africa, which relies heavily on imported Chinese technology,” the Associated Press reports. The changes on solar panels are due to take effect on April 1, with the new policy on battery storage equipment to begin next year. Any cost increases will come on top of the already higher prices African importers pay for solar equipment due to transport costs, small volumes and tariffs. Analysts say the impact will be gradual and manageable, however. | The development reflects two trends in China. The first, as Lyuba Zarsky wrote in this WPR in-depth article from November, is that “China has become a clean tech export powerhouse.” Its share of the global solar panel market, already at 80 percent in 2024, “is expected to rise to 95 percent in the coming years,” reflecting how the central question in climate change mitigation “will no longer be ‘Who pays?’ but rather, ‘Who benefits?’” For now, the answer is China. | The second has to do with how China achieved such dominance in green tech in the first place: industrial overcapacity. As Mary Gallagher explained in a WPR column from June, this overcapacity is a direct result of China’s development model, which relies on state subsidies that, in keeping so many manufacturers afloat, generate excessive competition that further drives down prices. Because that overcapacity is mainly exported, it has become a source of tension with China’s trade partners. The two moves announced by China on solar panels and battery storage are steps Beijing is taking to now rein in that overcapacity. And while it will be welcome by some capitals, particularly in Europe, it will also have an impact on developing economies’ green transition targets. | | Denmark: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen resigned after her party suffered a defeat in parliamentary elections, which sets the stage for tough negotiations to determine the country’s next governing coalition. The country’s royal palace said in a statement that Frederiksen, who is staying on in an acting capacity, will lead the negotiations, meaning she could still secure another term in office. | The election results were not a clear victory for either the left-leaning or right-leaning blocs, but Frederiksen’s center-left Social Democrats, as well as the two parties that are partners in her governing coalition, lost ground versus the last vote in 2022. As we wrote in yesterday’s Daily Review, Frederiksen’s party had fallen to a low of 17 support in December, but “owing to Frederiksen’s firm response to Trump’s threats to annex Greenland,” the Social Democrats’ polling numbers had recently rebounded to above 20 percent. | | The paid edition of today’s newsletter includes additional On Our Radar items on the United States, Ecuador and the Middle East. | Purchase your all-access subscription now to make sure you don’t miss important news and analysis. | | | More from WPR | | Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.