Geopolitical Monitor
"Venezuela and Iran unrest: Implications for China's oil import economics."
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
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Venezuela and Iran Unrest: Implications for China’s Oil Import Economics
A potential cut-off from Venezuelan and/or Iranian oil supply is a marginal-cost issue, not a systemic vulnerability for China’s overall energy security.
Latest Stories
Russia’s “Poseidon” UUV: The Underwater God of Propaganda
The Poseidon is an underwater unmanned vehicle and one of Russia’s ‘unparalleled’ next-generation weapon systems. The state authorities would have us believe that it can defy the laws of physics. No wonder it has never been seen in the field.
Greenland, Panama, and the Rio Treaty
Latin America should push back against US threats over Panama and Greenland, and the 1947 Rio Treaty provides the necessary legal framework to do so.
Will a Post-Dictatorship Iran Treat Ethnic Azerbaijanis Better?
Iran’s diverse ethnic groups have formed a central pillar of recent and previous protest movements. But the prospect of bringing back the monarchy is a non-starter for many of them.
Canada’s China Catch-22: The Limits of Middle-Power Choice
Canada seeks trade diversification and strategic autonomy, yet every available path narrows room to maneuver elsewhere. One such paradox is the Catch-22 between bolstering trade ties with China and protecting an imperiled democracy in Taiwan.
New Tokyo-Manila Maritime Pact Signals Shift in Indo-Pacific Security
The recent Japan–Philippines pact is not simply about defense. It is about determining whether the most stabilizing elements of the old order can be salvaged via minilateralism and conventional deterrence. Failure means fragmentation, and ‘might’ eclipsing ‘right’ in the Indo-Pacific.
From the Ruins of the Old, a New Security Architecture Takes Shape
The end of the era of global alliances marks the beginning of a new security architecture, one in which effectiveness is ensured by flexibility and security rests on concrete, targeted action between like-minded allies.
Geopolitics Weekly (China Purge, Iran Armada, Niger Airport Attack)
This week we examine a suspicious Russian tanker under military escort in Libya, a brazen attack by Islamist insurgents in Niger, an Iran ‘armada’ that seems all for show, and the implications of a high-level leadership purge in China.
Gold and Geopolitical Risk: M23 War Chest Swells in Eastern DRC
Artisanal gold mining is known to be a driver of global conflict, and the stakes are rising as the precious metal hits all-time highs. The M23 conflict in eastern DRC shows how gold price and peace can be negatively correlated.
East Asia Semiconductors Will Decide the Next US-China Arms Race
AI-powered military technologies can tilt the balance of power in the US-China rivalry. In this fight, victory is measured in access and supply chain resilience, and no region is more important than East Asia.
Cambodia Undermines ASEAN Centrality in 2025 Border Conflict
Settling disputes intra-regionally and respecting sovereignty have long stood as the fundamental norms of ASEAN. Phnom Penh has undermined both of them in its ongoing border conflict with Thailand.
Foreign Policy Guardrails of the Second Trump Administration
The foreign policy of the second Trump administration may appear chaotic, but it is constrained by three dictates: cheap oil, cheap debt, and cheap interventions.
Era of Strongman Diplomacy: Lam’s Ascent Reshapes US–Vietnam Ties
In an era of strongman diplomacy, To Lam’s Vietnam is not tilting toward Washington or Beijing. It is positioning itself to bargain with both — from a position of consolidated strength.
Geopolitics Weekly (Myanmar Election, Iran Military Buildup, Canada Tariff Threats)
This week we examine show elections in Myanmar, the re-deployment of a US Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East, and new US tariff threats against Canada.
Shooting for the Stars with a Paper Airplane: The US-Pakistan Rare Earths Deal
The US-Pakistan rare earths deal looks like a win-win: the US diversifies its rare earth supply chain, Pakistan hedges on FDI. But the optics begin to strain when technological, regulatory, and security realities are considered.
Trump’s Greenland Push Revives an Old Question: Who Gets to Consent?
The United States does not need a sovereignty workaround for Greenland. It needs the opposite: a disciplined commitment to consent, clarity, and negotiated access that treats Greenland as a political community, not a strategic asset with residents attached.
US-Iran Tensions Expose New Fault Lines in Mideast Geopolitics
The prospect of a US military strike against Iran over its violent crackdown on protests has laid bare a shift in Middle East geopolitics—one marked by the unexpected upending of long-standing rivalries between Iran and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
What The US Military Posture Shift Means for the Middle East
Recent US military movements reflect a recognition that the Middle East is entering a phase of heightened unpredictability, where deterrence is bolstered by increased readiness. But the pivot is not without its risks.
ASEAN’s 2026 Bottleneck: Policy Shocks and Power Limits
The defining risk for Southeast Asia in 2026 is not simply “geopolitics.” It is policy volatility, and it is arriving in tandem with an older, less glamorous constraint: energy infrastructure.
Taiwan’s Legal Status: Three Documents, Eight Decades of Ambiguity
Examining the enduring influence of the three texts that form the legal basis of Taiwan’s international position: the Cairo Declaration of 1943, the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, and the General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971.
Greenland and the Limits of Performative Power
President Trump’s Greenland obsession is not a show of strength. It is a self-inflicted liability: alienating a longstanding ally and, by extension, Europe, while pursuing a foreign-policy posture rooted more in impulse than strategy.
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.