Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the increased use of private military contractors by Gulf nations that are reshaping the face of conflict in the region, and a look ahead at three elections in Latin America this year. | But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |  | Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a news conference in Washington, Dec. 10, 2025 (AP photo by Jacquelyn Martin). |
| Condemnations and statements of concern are rolling in following the stunning revelation that the U.S. Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas Friday as part of a criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. | Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said the move was certain to reinforce ongoing worries about the Fed’s independence amid President Donald Trump’s efforts to pressure it into lowering interest rates. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said the investigation was “deeply disturbing” and showed the administration and the Fed “are now in open war.” Even some Republican legislators expressed misgivings. | Perhaps the most scathing criticism came in a statement signed by all 13 living former heads of the Fed. “This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions, with highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of their economies more broadly,” they wrote. “It has no place in the United States whose greatest strength is the rule of law, which is at the foundation of our economic success.” | The DOJ investigation nominally concerns comments Powell made while testifying before Congress in July about renovations to the Fed’s offices, which Trump and his allies claim were marred by fraud and cost overruns. But in an unusually pointed … Purchase a subscription now to read the rest and get the full top story in your Daily Review email every day. |
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| | Amid the devastation of Sudan’s civil war, recent reports have shed light on an uncomfortable reality: The fighting is being waged not only by Sudanese, but by foreign mercenaries. According to an investigation by Agence-France Presse, hundreds of former Colombian soldiers, recruited by an Emirati contractor, have been fighting for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The recruitment of these mercenaries is only part of a trend toward a new model of proxy warfare across the Middle East and North Africa. It represents a deliberate effort by the Gulf monarchies, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to reshape the rules of armed conflict, Mohammad Salami writes. | | | Three presidential elections will be held in Latin America in the first half of 2026, in Costa Rica, Peru and Colombia. What they all have in common is that nobody knows who will win any of them, with the candidate fields still muddled and the polling inconclusive. Another feature the three countries share is that during their previous presidential election cycle four or five years ago, they all experienced a surprise that haunts the current campaigns. That lack of a clear campaign narrative points to a larger problem in the political systems of not only the three countries in question, but the region in general, James Bosworth writes in his weekly column. | | | EU, China: The European Commission and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce released new guidance Monday that could allow Beijing to avoid some tariffs on its electric vehicle exports to Europe. The arrangement, if it works as planned, could reduce tensions over China’s EV sales to the bloc. But as Mary Gallagher explained in a recent WPR column, a host of other issues means dealing with China will continue to be a challenge for Brussels. | Uganda: Muhoozi Kainerugaba is the most important figure in Ugandan politics who is not on the ballot in the presidential election scheduled for Thursday. As his father, octogenarian President Yoweri Museveni, seeks a seventh consecutive term, Kainerugaba, who is currently the country’s top military commander, is waiting in the wings to succeed him. | But as Michael Mutyaba wrote in WPR in 2022, Kainerugaba is a highly controversial figure. “His self-aggrandizing tweets and coarse public statements … including bragging about the government’s nepotistic makeup, threatening opposition activists and making chauvinistic statements about women” have attracted scorn and derision even among those who support Museveni. And he is widely viewed as a puppet of his father, so the general population will associate him with the repression of the current regime. “If he succeeds in taking power, he will therefore likely face a crisis of legitimacy from the outset and would need to employ even more repression to maintain control,” Mutyaba wrote. | | The paid edition of today’s newsletter includes additional On Our Radar items on the European Union, China and Bulgaria. | Purchase your subscription now to make sure you don’t miss anything. | If you believe you are already a paid subscriber and are receiving this free edition by mistake, please reply to this email and we’ll make sure you receive the paid edition going forward. | | More from WPR | Kristian Coates Ulrichsen on the destabilizing impacts of the Saudi-UAE rivalry. Paul Poast on why Trump’s Venezuela attack is actually consistent with “America First.” Ulrike Franke on how Europe can adapt to a world defined by spheres of influence. John Boyce on the familiar problems facing the EU’s efforts to advance its single market.
| Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.