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"Trump's retreat. the budget, and a mouse brain."

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April 10, 2025

	By German Lopez

Good morning. We’re covering Trump’s pause on tariffs. We’re also covering the budget, a mouse brain and Poppy McIlroy.

Eric Lee/The New York Times

Trump’s retreat

When it comes to tariffs, President Trump is a creature of habit.

He first rolls out new levies with bluster. He claims they will solve a major problem: They’ll help stop fentanyl trafficking across the Mexican and Canadian borders. They’ll bring back manufacturing. They’ll rebalance trade. They’ll collect trillions in revenue.

Soon, the markets panic. Investors worry about the higher prices and lower economic growth that tariffs will cause. Stocks tank. Business leaders call the White House to complain — or, worse, vent publicly about Trump and his methods.

Then, the president rolls back his plans. We reached that final stage yesterday. Trump paused his so-called reciprocal tariffs on every nation but China for 90 days. The move leaves a universal 10 percent tariff on all other countries except Canada and Mexico, which face separate duties. But it undoes some of the most shocking tolls — 20 percent on the European Union, 24 percent on Japan, 46 percent on Vietnam.

Markets rallied at the news. The S&P 500, which had flirted with bear-market territory, shot up almost 10 percent. But stocks haven’t fully recovered from the chaotic “Liberation Day” announcement last week, and the United States remains in an open trade war with China, which faces a 125 percent penalty on its goods. And what happens when the pause ends? Today’s newsletter looks at the fallout from this latest tariff episode.

Unclear goals

The Port of Los Angeles. Maggie Shannon for The New York Times

From the start, the president has faced one key question about his plan: What’s the point?

On the campaign trail, Trump spoke about the need for tariffs to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, and JD Vance fantasized about once again making toasters in America. Trump also said the tolls would bring in tax revenue.

But neither of these goals — manufacturing and revenue — is achievable unless the tariffs remain in place. Manufacturers won’t shift production back to the United States if they think the incentive to do so will soon disappear.

Some of Trump’s allies have built a different case for tariffs: that they are a negotiating tactic, one that gets other countries to remove their own trade barriers against the United States. But this implies that the tariffs are fleeting and will vanish when Trump lands new trade deals.

In other words, the stated goals contradict each other.

Trump’s announcement yesterday muddled things further. On one hand, Trump and his cabinet said that the pause would give them time to complete new trade deals, suggesting that they were a negotiating tactic. On the other hand, Trump is keeping the 10 percent universal tariffs. Are they now permanent? The administration hasn’t provided a clear answer.

If the intention was hard to parse, so were the methods. “Only an hour or so ago, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, stood in front of the White House and said that the reversal on tariffs was the president’s strategy ‘all along,’” my colleague Ben Casselman wrote yesterday. “Now Trump himself is saying that he made the decision in response to the market turmoil.”

One reason for the mixed message is disagreement within the administration. Over the weekend, Bessent pressed Trump to use the tariffs to get concessions. (He said the president “is the most deft negotiator there is,” according to an inside look at White House deliberations that my colleagues published yesterday.) Trump refused, believing the market pain was “short-term.” He changed his mind after the bond market faltered.

What’s next

Once the pause ends in 90 days, we could go through another round of economic chaos. That kind of uncertainty has rattled markets throughout Trump’s second term, and it will likely continue as long as the tariff threat looms.

It’s easy to forget, but Trump’s original idea on the campaign trail — the one that alarmed economists to begin with — was a universal 10 percent tariff. Now he has it. That levy is still one of the largest tax hikes since World War II. It will lead to higher prices and slower growth, and poorer Americans will disproportionately pay for it. The United States will suffer more from the ensuing trade war than any other major economy besides Mexico, experts estimate.

Source: O.E.C.D. Economic Outlook | By The New York Times

And the steep tariffs on China will additionally hit many imported products, including 73 percent of smartphones, 78 percent of laptops, 87 percent of video game consoles and 77 percent of toys, the economist Wendong Zhang said.

Trump has undone some of the expected damage by abandoning his plan, for now. But America still taxes trade much more than it did before Trump’s presidency — and that will continue to roil the world’s economy.

More on tariffs

China makes lots of the clothing Americans buy, as well as toys and electronics. Here’s a guide to how the tariffs could affect prices. Ratings at Fox Business and CNBC have soared. Canada expects to raise billions from retaliatory tariffs, and it has promised to use the money to help companies under threat from the U.S. Trump’s auto tariff hasn’t changed. People in the English town of Solihull, where Jaguar Land Rover employs thousands, are stressed. Trump spared Russia from tariffs. But falling oil prices could hurt its economy even more.

Below, the Times finance reporter Rob Copeland explains how three White House advisers have shaped Trump’s tariff policies. Click the video to watch.

THE LATEST NEWS

Politics

Speaker Mike Johnson delayed a budget vote after conservatives said the plan would add too much to the nation’s debt. Trump signed executive orders punishing two officials from his first term who opposed his 2020 election lies. He also targeted another elite law firm.

Federal judges in Texas and New York restricted the Trump administration’s use of a wartime statute to deport Venezuelan migrants. The administration slashed many of the aid programs it promised to keep. The U.N. food agency said the new cuts “could amount to a death sentence” for millions. The Senate confirmed Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister and former governor who ran for president twice, as ambassador to Israel. Chief Justice John Roberts said Trump could temporarily remove the leaders of two independent agencies while the Supreme Court considers their cases.

Climate

After cutting federal climate programs, Trump is targeting efforts by states. The Trump administration cut funding and staff for the government’s premier climate change report. Scientists said it wasn’t clear the report could continue. The administration also cut nearly $4 million in funding for climate change research at Princeton, claiming that the work made young people anxious. In Washington State, where salmon farming is a multibillion-dollar industry, government firings and budget freezes may endanger future harvests.

War in Ukraine

Ksenia Karelina in August. EPA, via Shutterstock

Ksenia Karelina, a Russian American who was jailed for treason in Russia after donating about $50 to a nonprofit supporting Ukraine, is returning to the U.S. in a prisoner swap, Marco Rubio said. A Ukrainian teen is accused of becoming an unwitting foot soldier for Russia abroad. Read his story.

More International News

In Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  Alfred Davies/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Jet Set, the nightclub in the Dominican Republic whose roof collapsed this week, was where the country’s big names went to party. Officials say the disaster killed at least 184 people. The Islamic State has regained strength in Syria, attracting fighters and increasing attacks, according to U.S. officials and the U.N. Thailand arrested an American academic on charges of criticizing the monarchy.

Other Big Stories

Jo Ellis, a National Guard pilot, is suing an influencer who falsely identified her as the captain of a helicopter that crashed with a passenger plane. A leader of the pro bono practice at the elite law firm Paul Weiss is resigning weeks after it struck a deal with Trump to escape a punitive executive order.

Opinions

The Trump administration refuses to free the man it mistakenly put in a Salvadoran prison because it wants to show it’s above due process, Erwin Chemerinsky and Laurence Tribe write.

While the world convulses, Painted Lady butterflies are thriving and adapting. Lucas Foglia and Aimee Nezhukumatathil help you meet them.

In a new podcast from Times Opinion, “Interesting Times,” Ross Douthat seeks to sort out the new world order. Hear a conversation with the economist Oren Cass about the trade war.

Here are columns by Jamelle Bouie on what drives Trump and Nicholas Kristof on Palestinian Christians.

A subscription to match the variety of your interests.

News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today.

MORNING READS

Allen Institute

Mental map: Scientists have charted a millimeter of a mouse brain — something they once thought was impossible. They found more than half a billion neural connections.

Wealth: Read the strange case of an Hermès heir, an emir and a deal gone wrong.

Faith: A man served 36 years for his wife’s murder and then forgave the man who confessed to it.

Frontier: American needs more homes, and they won’t all fit in cities. The only answer is sprawl, a Times reporter writes.

Doomsday: Preparing for the collapse of civilization is becoming more mainstream.

Health: Expensive “longevity hacks” are all the rage. But many of the best tools for living longer are cheap or free.

Most clicked yesterday: These charts explain Trump’s tariffs.

Lives Lived: Xavier Le Pichon’s computer rendering helped revolutionize how scientists understand movements of the Earth’s crust. He died at 87.

SPORTS

Poppy McIlroy The Masters

Golf: The Masters begins today. Rory McIlroy’s 4-year-old daughter, Poppy, sank a major putt on the course. See the video in The Guardian.

N.B.A.: Luka Dončić scored 45 points in his return to Dallas.

ARTS AND IDEAS

In Manhattan.  Oliver Farshi for The New York Times

This spring, the crafts chain Hobby Lobby is expected to open a store in TriBeCa, a Manhattan neighborhood known for its liberal politics. Some people aren’t happy: The chain’s owners are vocal about their conservative Christian beliefs. “I moved to New York to get away from things like that,” said one resident who is calling for a boycott. Can Hobby Lobby make it in Manhattan?

More on culture

Maria Fraterrigo with Plucky, her 24-year-old parrot.  Maria Fraterrigo

A woman tried to board a plane with an emotional support parrot. It led to a fight. Thomas Pynchon is publishing a new novel in October. He’s 87 now, and “Shadow Ticket,” featuring a Depression-era private eye, will be his first book since 2013. Customers lined up outside Trader Joe’s grocery stores to buy new variations on its $3 tote bag. On late night, tariffs were still the main punchline.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Ryan Liebe for The New York Times

Combine amatriciana, cacio e pepe, carbonara and gricia for rigatoni alla zozzona, which loosely translates to a big mess.

Get a great rate on a hotel room.

Upgrade a shower head.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was modular.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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