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"For the Middle East, 2025 will be about the shifting balance of power."

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Dec. 26, 2025

Hello WPR readers. Today we bring you the second in a series of articles on the outlook for the world in the coming year. Today, Daily Dassa Kaye looks at what 2025 will mean for the Middle East. You can read an excerpt of the piece below.

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For the Middle East, 2025 Will Be About the Shifting Balance of Power

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan shakes hands with Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 22, 2024 (Turkish Foreign Ministry press service photo via AP).

By Dalia Dassa Kaye

Making predictions about the Middle East can be an exercise in futility. Just weeks before his ouster, for example, few if any analysts had “Assad flees Syria” on their radar. The same can be said for Hamas’ brutal assault on Israel in 2023, which shocked the region and upended its political dynamics. Could another “black swan” event emerge in 2025? At the very least, it seems to be possible, as the Middle East is full of brittle regimes, festering conflicts and ambitious external actors.

Such uncertainty underscores the need to constantly challenge assumptions. After the attack of Oct. 7, 2023, exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities, many predicted an irrepressible rise and strengthening of the “axis of resistance,” as the network of Iranian-backed allies fighting Israel and Western-aligned partners is known. A year later, the script has flipped, with Israel ascendant through its relentless use of military force in Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. The fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was the most stunning example of how the tables have turned, eroding Iranian—and Russian—power.

U.S. President Joe Biden was quick to claim credit for a new regional balance of power that seems to favor the United States. Such confident declarations about the Middle East are rarely wise. For one thing, Iran’s losses do not always amount to Washington’s gains. For another, the pendulum can shift again—and quickly. Those hoping for clarity in the emerging regional order are likely to be disappointed.

Nonetheless, several certainties remain. One is the continued expansion of Chinese economic engagement in the region driven by the sheer demand of its energy needs, which are unlikely to shift drastically in 2025. The other certainty is that Washington’s expansive military ties with regional partners will continue. This would have been the case regardless of who won the U.S. presidential election in November, because those ties serve members of the U.S. foreign policy establishment who want to see continued U.S. military engagement in the Middle East. But they also serve those in Washington—like President-elect Donald Trump—who say they want to see less U.S. engagement because, after all, if the U.S. is less engaged, it will need regional partners equipped to do the heavy lifting.

These two certainties combine to reinforce a third trend: . . . To read the rest, purchase a subscription now.

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