But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |
War in Ukraine: NATO foreign ministers are meeting today to discuss ways to maintain long-term support for Ukraine, including a proposal by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that would create a five-year fund of more than $100 billion for Kyiv, as well as gradually move the so-called Ramstein Group—a U.S.-led coalition—under the alliance’s control. (Reuters) |
Our Take: Stoltenberg has pitched his proposal as a way to shield support for Ukraine “against the winds of political change,” a thinly-veiled reference to the possibility of a second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump. The Republican Party has already obstructed Biden administration efforts to send further aid to Ukraine, and Trump’s comments that, if elected, he would end the war “in one day” have raised fears that a second Trump term would mean Washington’s support for Kyiv is cut off permanently. |
Those fears have come to dominate security conversations among U.S. allies, especially in Europe, leading to a scramble among European policymakers to achieve military self-reliance. That includes EU plans to increase arms production and develop a more cohesive European security structure, theoretically allowing Brussels to step up as Kyiv’s security guarantor if Washington steps back. |
There are clear obstacles to the EU’s ability to take on that role, however. Europe lacks a single hegemonic power that can lead the rest, meaning internal divisions are inevitable, as evidenced by Hungary’s repeated, albeit temporary, obstruction of aid to Ukraine. It’s also not clear that Europe is capable of achieving security autonomy, as past efforts to do so have repeatedly failed. And even if Brussels were able to fill the security gaps left by Washington, doing so would take multiple years, if not longer. |
That explains why Stoltenberg has proposed that NATO take a more active role in support for Ukraine, which the alliance has until now resisted out of fear of escalating the war. But shifting some of these responsibilities from the U.S. to NATO comes with its own risks. Hungary is also a member of the trans-Atlantic alliance, as is Turkey, which has taken a less overtly anti-Russian stance on the war. Infighting could also hamper the alliance’s ability to maintain support. |
More than anything, though, this proposal highlights how Ukraine and its Western allies are shifting their strategy in the war. It has been clear for a long time that the conflict would be long. But last year’s failed counteroffensive underscored that Ukraine can no longer rely on achieving ambitious, short-term goals to bulk up support from allies. Instead, as columnist Alexander Clarkson wrote last year, Kyiv needs long-term, measured objectives. Insulating aid from the day-to-day politics in Brussels and Washington is one way to enable that approach. |
For more: Read all our coverage of the war in Ukraine here. |
Populist leaders worldwide have increasingly used rhetoric and narratives designed to appeal to communities that feel either neglected or disproportionately affected by measures implemented to transition to a more sustainable model of development. |
But while the rhetoric used by populist leaders, as well as the solutions they offer, are often opportunistic attempts to exploit these and other grievances, it is a mistake to dismiss the grievances themselves, Deborah MartÃnez and Sjors Witjes write. |
Populist leaders worldwide have increasingly used rhetoric designed to appeal to people in society who feel disproportionately affected by sustainability measures. But while the rhetoric used by populist leaders are often opportunistic attempts to exploit these grievances, it is a mistake to dismiss the grievances themselves. Read more. |
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In a conflict that has had its share of surreal moments, images of Russian troops charging Ukrainian fortifications in glorified golf carts seem to encapsulate the absurdities of Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. |
First spotted in December 2023, Russian assaults in Chinese-made all terrain vehicles, or ATVs, are now a daily occurrence along the frontlines. What seems like tactical Russian roulette is also an indication of how Moscow is adapting to new battlefield challenges in Ukraine and changing economic realities in Russia. |
As columnist Alexander Clarkson writes, the adaptation could have a fundamental impact on European security. |
Russian assaults in Chinese-made all terrain vehicles, or ATVs, are now a daily occurrence along the frontlines of the Ukraine war. They indicate how Moscow is adapting its battlefield tactics, and this evolution could change how the Russian state approaches war on a strategic level. Read more. |
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U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla reported an 8.5 percent drop in quarterly sales on Tuesday vs. the same quarter the previous year, the first annual sales decline for the company since 2020. The report surprised investors and led to an almost 5 percent drop in Tesla’s stock in one day. |
This week’s question: What is the biggest single reason this EV pioneer’s sales are slumping? |
In a phone call yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time since they met in November. The two-hour call included discussions of climate change, artificial intelligence and security, including an emphasis by Biden on avoiding conflict in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. |
Both Washington and Beijing have repeatedly stated their desire to prevent their bilateral relationship from veering into a severe crisis or conflict. Unfortunately, as Michael Swaine wrote recently, neither side has met the requirements necessary to stabilize relations—namely, offering and following through on credible assurances. |
| March 13, 2024 | U.S. officials have reportedly made several assurances to China that they haven’t made public. To Beijing, they’re starting to ring hollow. Read more. |
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Uganda’s constitutional court declined to strike down an anti-LGBTQ law that includes the death penalty for some same-sex acts, although the court did void some provisions, including a requirement that citizens report anyone they suspect of engaging in homosexuality. |
The law’s passage last year followed more than a decade of escalating crackdowns on LGBTQ people and activists in Uganda, including the passage of a similar law in 2013 that was overturned the following year on procedural grounds. Sophie Neiman wrote about the crackdown in 2019: |
Nov. 21, 2019 | A series of recent arrests and incidents of violence against Uganda’s LGBTQ minority have rubbed salt into already very deep wounds. Read more. | |
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A new Human Rights Watch report says that Colombia and Panama are failing to protect thousands of migrants who cross the infamously dangerous Darien Gap and called on both countries to do more to address the humanitarian crisis there. As Anushka Srivastava wrote last month, any solution to the crisis must include the border communities in the Darien Gap that have now built their economies around migrants. |
Senegal inaugurated Bassirou Diomaye Faye as president yesterday. Faye, now Africa’s youngest elected leader, was elected last month just weeks after being released from prison, riding a wave of popularity as a stand-in for opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, who was swiftly named prime minister. Read more about Faye’s election in this Daily Review. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.