WPR Daily Review

"The war in Gaza may be skewing polling in the U.S."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 05 November 2024, 1953 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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November 5, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering how the war in Gaza may have skewed polls ahead of the U.S. election and the danger faced by women who protect the Amazon in Colombia.

But first, it’s Election Day in the United States. Here’s our take on the lasting impact of former President Donald Trump on U.S. politics and democracy:

Former U.S. President Donald Trump steps on stage to at a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire, Jan. 20, 2024 (AP photo by Matt Rourke).

In last Thursday’s edition of the Daily Review, we wrote about the potential impact of today’s presidential election on U.S. foreign policy, as well as the threat that Trump poses to democracy in the U.S. and globally should he win. That threat remains very real. But it is also important to underscore how much damage Trump has already done to U.S. democracy.

To start, Trump has long sought to delegitimize the institutions that help sustain democracy. He has sowed doubts about the government and the media, and fueled conspiracy theories to cultivate distrust among a wide swath of the U.S. population about how votes are tabulated, despite clear evidence to the contrary. In the U.S., this level of distrust is somewhat of a novelty, and it is unlikely to go away quickly even if Trump loses today and fades from U.S. politics.

But if Trump’s delegitimization of democratic institutions represents something new for the U.S., he has also reintroduced darker aspects of U.S. political history that had faded in the decades prior to his rise. Since 2016, the U.S. has been grappling with the biggest and most sustained increase in political violence it has seen since the 1970s, most of which has come from the right. The peak of that violence was, of course, the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. But the run-up to today’s election has also seen multiple arson attacks on ballot drop boxes and altercations involving Trump supporters at polling places.

Indeed, many observers have warned that political violence could worsen after the presidential election, especially if Trump loses to VP Kamala Harris and refuses to accept defeat, as he did in 2020 and has given every indication he will do again this time.

Finally, Trump’s three campaigns and his presidency have had an enormous and troubling impact on political discourse in the United States, beginning with the constant repeated lies and misinformation he and his campaign surrogates have used to undermine the foundations of healthy political debate. But Trump has also frequently attacked groups that he views as a threat to his power with belligerent and at times violent rhetoric, including political opponents and members of the press, who he has repeatedly characterized as “enemies of the people.” At the same time, he has used racist and misogynistic rhetoric to stigmatize wide swaths of the U.S. population.

The result of all these shifts has been that coverage of this year’s U.S. presidential election has increasingly resembled what many Americans expect to see only in reporting about foreign countries without established and consolidated democracies. It is important to remember, though, that many of these trends are not unprecedented in U.S. history. Political violence and the use of racist campaign rhetoric targeting Black Americans, for instance, were common in the American South as recently as two generations ago.

For the most part, Trump has mostly reawakened darker aspects of U.S. politics that had lain dormant but had not—as many would like to think—disappeared. If there is a silver lining to Trump’s impact on U.S. politics, it is that the resurfacing of these attitudes and behaviors could force a deeper reckoning with those darker aspects of U.S. political history and discourse.

Still, that reckoning is not guaranteed, and will likely only come in the immediate future if Trump loses today. Even if he does and his loss results in his fading from political relevance—a big “if”—his takeover of the Republican Party means that his impact has already spread well beyond his own candidacy. Put simply, healing democracy from the damage Trump has already done is going to take a long time.

Read all our coverage of the U.S. presidential election here.

Polls in the U.S. have shown the presidential race between Democratic nominee VP Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, in a dead heat for several weeks.

Yet over the weekend, a narrative developed that voters were breaking for Harris. A number of commentators have made arguments for why that may be, from “herding” to Harris’ late entry into the race.

Columnist Charli Carpenter breaks down two other reasons why polls may have made the race appear closer than it really is until now—including some voters’ views on the war in Gaza—and what that might mean for today’s election:

The War in Gaza May Be Skewing Polling in the U.S. Election By Charli Carpenter Polls struggle to capture nuanced views. As a result, they may have underestimated support for Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election.

*****

In the Colombian Amazon, women are at the forefront of protecting nature and their communities. But despite their vital contributions to community life and conservation, their political and economic influence remains minimal, and many frequently face abuse and threats as environmental defenders.

In the face of these dangers, women have often come together to advocate for their rights, safety, political participation and economic autonomy, as well as to protect the land, Mie Hoejris Dahl writes.

The Women Who Protect Colombia’s Amazon Need Protection Themselves By Mie Hoejris Dahl Women at the forefront of protecting nature and their communities in the Colombian Amazon often face danger for their work.

Question of the Day: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have reduced the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal each day from about 70-80 to roughly what number?

5 10 20 40

Find the answer in the latest WPR Weekly Quiz, then read Francisco Serrano’s briefing on how the decrease in traffic, among other developments, has affected Egypt’s foreign policy.

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong today in Canberra, where the two discussed the countries’ growing strategic partnership and cooperation in the region. Following the meeting, Wong said she had raised Canberra’s concerns about India’s alleged targeting of Sikh activists in Canada, while Jaishankar accused Australia of putting Indian diplomats under surveillance, which he called “unacceptable.”

Engagement between Australia and India is currently at an all-time high, as both countries share an interest in balancing China and ensuring a stable order in the Indo-Pacific. But as Stuti Bhatnagar wrote last year, despite the mutual enthusiasm to deepen the bilateral relationship, there are challenges in their developing partnership that still need to be addressed.

Australia and India’s Relations Are Flourishing—With an Eye on China By Stuti Bhatnagar May 8, 2023 | Relations between Australia and India are at a critical juncture amid a deepening of bilateral ties.

*****

German police have arrested eight members of a far-right militant group who authorities said had been training for a future armed coup. The group reportedly included a politician from the far-right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD.

The arrests appear to mark the second far-right coup plot uncovered in Germany in recent years, after authorities arrested several dozen people planning to overthrow the German government in 2022. As Alexander Clarkson wrote then, the willingness of some in the media to downplay the threat posed by that group indicates a tendency to underestimate the extent to which their anti-constitutional worldview has spread in Germany.

Germany’s ‘Comical’ Coup-Plotters Were the Tip of a Dangerous Iceberg By Alexander Clarkson Dec. 21, 2022 | It’s easy to view a recent far-right coup plot Germany as comical, but that underestimates the threat the movement poses to democracy.

*****

The Philippine military began two weeks of drills yesterday that will include simulating the seizure of an island in the disputed South China Sea. The Philippines has faced increasingly aggressive behavior by China in its territorial waters in recent years, prompting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to recalibrate his foreign policy. As Richard Javad Heydarian wrote in August, the Philippines is now pursuing a broader security network with a range of partners.

*****

Ukrainian officials said yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk region, marking the first time the North Korean troops have been seen on the battlefield since being deployed by Pyongyang. As Paul Poast wrote last week, North Korea’s deployment of troops for combat in the war in Ukraine is a significant development, and raises the likelihood of the conflict going global.

More from WPR

James Bosworth on the stakes of the U.S. election for Latin America. Tobias Harris on what Japan’s recent election means for its foreign policy. Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé on Biden’s disappointing engagement with Africa. Frida Ghitis on Georgia’s contested elections.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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