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"The U.S. election's implications for Latin America."

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November 4, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the implications of the U.S. election for Latin America and what Japan’s election outcome means for the country’s foreign policy.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

King Felipe VI of Spain during his visit to Paiporta, a town affected by intense flooding in Valencia, Nov. 3, 2024 (Sipa photo by Carlos Lujan via AP Images).

Spain: Days after intense flash flooding swept through the Valencia region in eastern Spain, killing more than 200 people, angry residents in the town of Paiporta hurled mud at King Felipe VI, PM Pedro Sanchez and regional officials who were visiting the hard-hit area. (AP)

Our Take: The barrage of mud, and reportedly some rocks, seen in Paiporta is not a common sight for post-natural disaster protests. But it is par for the course for anger to be directed at elected officials when they are blamed for failures in disaster response.

That is the case in Valencia, where the state’s response to the flooding has been slow, with residents so far relying more on civil society and volunteers for the cleanup effort. In the town of Paiporta, for instance, many residents still had not received basic necessities when Felipe and Sanchez arrived.

But that anger is amplified even more in Paiporta due to what residents see as a failure in disaster prevention as well, as regional officials reportedly did not send out an alert about the flooding until it had already reached dangerous levels.

Of course, politics always plays a role in the impact of and response to natural disasters. And while it is difficult to judge in the immediate aftermath of the floods in Valencia where blame should lie, it is common in democracies, and to some extent expected, for elected officials to bear the brunt of responsibility for any failures.

The images of mud being slung at King Felipe, however, are more surprising and even shocking for longtime observers of parliamentary monarchies like Spain, where the head of state functions as a symbol of national unity operating outside the realm of politics. So it’s rare for anger about a political issue, like disaster response, to be directed at the royal family, even by people who harbor anti-monarchical sentiments.

The barrage directed at King Felipe in Paiporta, then, underscores just how overwhelming the floods last week were. It is a grim but tangible reminder that megadisasters can overwhelm the disaster response capabilities of even advanced economies. And the effects of climate change mean that disasters on this level are becoming both more frequent and more devastating, as evidenced by the impact of Hurricane Helene in the U.S. in September.

If the flooding in Valencia is indicative of how devastating natural disasters can be in developed economies, it is all the more alarming for the majority of the world’s population living in developing economies with greater governance challenges and fewer resources, both for disaster response efforts and climate change mitigation.

For more:

Why natural disasters are always political. Why the world must ramp up preparedness for climate-driven disasters.

The cliche of the moment among pundits of Latin American politics is that the region is practically frozen as it waits to see what happens in tomorrow’s U.S. presidential election between VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

On one hand, that is patently false. Now, as always, international diplomacy continues to be pursued across the region without regard to whatever is happening up north.

But on the other hand, as is often the case, there is also an element of truth to the cliché: The outcome of the U.S. election matters deeply to many of the countries in the region. James Bosworth breaks down the implications of the vote in today’s column:

For Latin America, the U.S. Election Has More Than Just Policy Implications By James Bosworth The U.S. presidential election matters deeply to Latin American countries. Its outcome will have implications for more than just policy.

*****

Japanese PM Ishiba Shigeru looked crestfallen as election returns came in on Oct. 27, showing that his Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito would fail to secure an absolute majority in the lower house of the Diet, the Japanese parliament.

The LDP has dominated Japanese politics for all but four years in the postwar period, and it has led the government since returning to power after three of those years in opposition in 2012. Now, having lost the confidence of the public, it will lack a working majority, with implications for Japan’s regional and global role, Tobias Harris writes.

A Weakened Ishiba Means a Less Ambitious Japan By Tobias Harris Domestic stability enabled Japan to take on an international leadership role. Those days may be over.

Question of the Day: At the annual summit of BRICS leaders in Kazan, Russia, last month, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was caught on camera looking deferential while shaking hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin and sharing a hug with Belarussian President Aleksander Lukashenko. The foreign minister of which country took to social media afterward to suggest Guterres should resign?

Ukraine Sweden Poland Lithuania

Find the answer in the latest WPR Weekly Quiz, then read Richard Gowan’s column about the diplomatic rumpus set off by Guterres’ presence at the summit.

Nigeria has charged 76 people, including 30 minors, with treason and inciting a military coup after they protested in August over a cost-of-living crisis, acute hunger, insecurity and corruption. The youth-led #EndBadGovernance protests drew tens of thousands of people and in some areas led to riots and vandalism.

Nigerian authorities responded to the protests with a violent crackdown—at least 22 protesters were killed and more than 1,000 arrested. As Zikora Ibeh wrote in August, the response is only likely to foster additional grievances that will fuel further dissent in Nigeria.

Nigeria’s Response to Protests Provides Fuel for Further Dissent By Zikora Ibeh Aug. 26, 2024 | The government’s harsh response to recent youth-led protests won’t be forgotten by the Nigerian public in the years to come.

*****

Indian authorities killed three suspected militants in two separate gun battles in India-controlled Kashmir on Saturday. And yesterday, an assailant threw a grenade into a crowded marketplace in the disputed region, wounding at least nine people.

Violence in Kashmir had seemingly declined after 2019, when the Indian government stripped the region of its semi-autonomous rule, but recent months have seen an accelerating rise in militant attacks there. As Shweta Desai wrote last year, the apparent post-2019 calm had been enforced by an extraordinary level of state surveillance and intimidation, making it inherently unsustainable.

India’s Crackdown in Kashmir Has Brought Calm, but Not Peace By Shweta Desai Jan. 18, 2023 | India’s BJP government is cracking down on Jammu and Kashmir after revoking Article 370, thereby removing its semi-autonomous status.

*****

Indonesia and Russia began their first bilateral naval exercises today, just two weeks after Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated. Prabowo has said he will maintain Jakarta’s longstanding neutrality, but unlike his predecessor, he views himself as a leader with global ambitions and believes Indonesia should play a bigger role in international affairs. Read more about Prabowo’s agenda in this briefing by Joshua Kurlantzick from September.

Election Updates

Moldovan President Maia Sandu won reelection in a runoff vote yesterday. Sandu’s win marks a victory for the pro-Western faction in Moldova, especially as the vote had been mired in accusations of Russian interference. Read more about Russia’s manipulation of Moldovan politics in this column by Frida Ghitis.

More from WPR

Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé on Biden’s disappointing engagement with Africa. Paul Poast on North Korea’s troop deployment for the war in Ukraine. Frida Ghitis on Georgia’s contested elections. Francisco Serrano on Egypt’s stakes in the Horn of Africa.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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