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"Your guide to election night, what to expect, hour by hour."

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November 4, 2024

	By David Leonhardt and Ian Prasad Philbrick

Good morning. Today, we have a guide for what to expect on election night, hour by hour.

In Philadelphia.  Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images

A viewer’s guide

Today’s newsletter offers a guide to election night, and we’ll start with a point that many people don’t seem to realize: The process of counting votes may happen more quickly this year than it did four years ago.

Why? The Covid pandemic is over, and fewer people are voting by mail. And some states have changed their procedures to count votes more quickly. Michigan, for example, now allows officials to start processing mailed ballots before Election Day, while Philadelphia has bought faster counting machines.

If the presidential race is extremely close — think Bush vs. Gore — we won’t know the winner by tomorrow night. But the chance that the result will be clear is higher than you may think.

The presidency

The final New York Times/Siena College polls, released yesterday, showed a virtually tied race. Kamala Harris is clearly favored in states that account for 226 electoral votes, while Donald Trump is favored in states that account for 219. To win, Harris will likely need at least 44 combined electoral votes from the seven battleground states, while he will likely need 51:

By The New York Times

But surprises remain possible. A highly regarded Iowa poll, for example, shocked many political analysts over the weekend by showing Harris ahead there — a potential sign of her strength with white voters. Alaska is another state where she has a small chance for a big upset. Trump could pull off his own surprises in New Mexico or New Hampshire.

You can explore all of the combinations through this map.

Congress

Republicans are significant favorites to retake Senate control, as Friday’s newsletter described. The likeliest path to a Democratic-led Senate requires at least one upset victory in Montana, Nebraska or Texas.

Control of the House is a tossup. It could come down to districts in states that often need days to finish counting ballots, including Arizona, California and New York. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, doesn’t think we will know tomorrow night which party has won.

Among the House races we’re watching closely:

For an early sense, look to the Second and Seventh Districts in Virginia (where polls close at 7 p.m.). One is a race to succeed Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat resigning to run for governor. Our colleague Catie Edmondson describes that race as “a good test of how House Republicans are going to do in suburbs that aren’t in love with Trump.” Seventeen Republicans represent districts Joe Biden won in 2020, including Mike Lawler in New York City’s suburbs. If you’re looking for something to listen to today, we recommend this “Daily” episode about Lawler’s race. Five Democrats are running for re-election in districts Trump won in 2020, including Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington State. Here’s a Times profile of Gluesenkamp Perez, who has appealed to working-class voters by combining economic progressivism with moderate stances on college debt, immigration and guns.

In Phoenix. Matt York/Associated Press

Ballot initiatives

Here are six questions about voter referendums:

Will abortion rights remain undefeated in the post-Roe era? Ten states will vote on the issue. Six red and purple states — Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Nebraska — are considering measures that would allow abortion until fetal viability. Florida’s version needs 60 percent support to pass. Will marijuana’s winning streak continue despite new evidence of harms? Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota will vote on whether to legalize recreational marijuana, and Nebraska will vote on medical marijuana. (A recent Times investigation explained growing signs of addiction and health problems.) Will affordable housing expand? Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, New Orleans and Rhode Island will vote on funding. Will momentum for school vouchers continue? The educational turmoil of the Covid pandemic, including long school closures, has already led several red states to allow families to use tax dollars for private schools. Kentucky and Nebraska will vote on related measures. Will progressive economic policies continue to fare well? Alaska (where the minimum wage is now $11.73) and Missouri ($12.30) will vote on increases — and also whether to expand paid sick leave. California ($16) will also vote on lifting the minimum wage. Will ranked-choice voting grow — or shrink? Ranked-choice voting allows people to list several candidates in a preferred order, rather than choosing only one. As a result, advocates note, it can help candidates who appeal to the broad American middle, rather than partisan extremes. Critics point out that it can also be complicated. Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, D.C., will vote on whether to establish such a system in at least some elections. Alaska will vote on whether to get rid of its ranked-choice system.

We recommend this nationwide election guide from Daniel Nichanian of Bolts magazine. It includes information on referendums about climate, transportation, L.G.B.T.Q. issues and more.

For more

Doug Mills, a Times photographer, will be with Trump on election night. He has covered every president since Ronald Reagan. See some of his iconic images. Readers asked questions about the election. Times editors answered.

THE LATEST NEWS

Voting

Nearly 75 million people have cast early ballots (that’s around a third of all eligible voters). Overall turnout is expected to be slightly lower than in 2020, but will still be higher than most previous elections. A group of uncommitted voters struggled for months with their decision. See them explain who they’re voting for. The final polls are the closest in modern history. But a decisive win for either candidate is still possible, Nate Cohn writes.

More on the Campaigns

In Greensboro, North Carolina.  Doug Mills/The New York Times

At a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump said he shouldn’t have left the White House after the 2020 election. He also joked to supporters that he wouldn’t mind if reporters were shot. At a Michigan rally, Harris vowed to end the war in Gaza, a crucial issue in the state. She also visited a Black church in Detroit, where she invoked the words of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. In ads, Harris’s final message is focused on kitchen-table issues like the economy, while the Trump campaign has framed defeating Harris as a matter of life and death. Both candidates will spend most of their final day in Pennsylvania. Follow the latest news here.

Middle East

Thousands of children in Gaza City received a second dose of polio vaccine. The vaccination campaign was delayed because of fighting. On Oct. 7, a college student in Israel shared posts on Instagram — and then the police arrested her for incitement. Read about her story.

More International News

In the Tatacoa Desert, in Colombia. Federico Rios for The New York Times

In Colombia, a fossil-collecting rancher found a flightless killer bird from 13 million years ago. It’s a missing link to the region’s evolutionary history. The pro-Western president of Moldova, a former Soviet republic, won re-election against a Moscow-friendly rival. A volcanic eruption in eastern Indonesia triggered several earthquakes and killed at least 10 people, officials said. The language of the Indonesian Cia-Cia tribe has survived for centuries without a written form. To preserve it, the tribe has adopted the Korean alphabet.

Other Big Stories

Quincy Jones  Damon Winter/The New York Times

Quincy Jones, a giant of American popular music, died at 91. Starting in the late 1950s, he led bands, composed film scores and later produced the best-selling album of all time, Michael Jackson’s “Thriller.” “A drop in the bucket”: Residents in Louisville expressed hope and concern after a police officer was convicted of using excessive force in the raid that killed Breonna Taylor. Weight-loss drugs and I.V.F. are expensive, and their popularity is raising the cost of health care.

Opinions

House and Senate races will decide whether Congress enables or restrains the next president, the Editorial Board writes.

Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss the political gender divide.

Here’s a column by Ross Douthat on why opposing Trump is not an obvious choice.

Ends soon: Our best rate on unlimited access for Morning readers.

From in-depth coverage of Decision 2024 to unlimited news and analysis, Games, Cooking, The Athletic and more, subscribe now for only $1 a week for your first year.

MORNING READS

Paul Campbell The New York Times

What happens to your compost? Meet a man who manages it.

Not so luxe: Consumers claim they were duped by a vacation club managed by Hyatt. Some are locked into 40-year, $50,000 contracts that they say offer few rewards.

Metropolitan Diary: The Bird Man of Bryant Park.

Lives Lived: As a young public-health researcher in South Asia in the late 1960s, Richard Cash showed that a simple cocktail of salt, sugar and clean water could check the impacts of cholera and other diarrhea-inducing diseases. This innovation saved an estimated 50 million lives. Cash died at 83.

SPORTS

Sheila Chepkirui, right, and Abdi Nageeye. Uli Seit for The New York Times

Marathon: Abdi Nageeye and Sheila Chepkirui won the New York City Marathon. Some celebrities also ran.

N.F.L.: The Minnesota Vikings ended a losing streak with a 21-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

N.B.A.: The Phoenix Suns star Kevin Durant called the ESPN personality Stephen Smith “a clown” in response to the analyst’s criticism of his leadership abilities.

ARTS AND IDEAS

In Washington, D.C. Scott Suchman for The New York Times

Most new food celebrities get their start on social media, like front-seat food critics and TikTok bakers. Not Kwame Onwuachi, a chef with restaurants in New York City and Washington, D.C. His fame came primarily from working in a restaurant.

“His talent in the kitchen and his charisma outside it conspire with a rare ability, seen more often in pop stars than in chefs,” Pete Wells writes, noting that Onwuachi can identify and ride social currents. Read more about his new restaurant.

More on culture

An editor is trying to refresh Town & Country, a 178-year-old magazine, using social media. James Van Der Beek, the star of “Dawson’s Creek,” said he had been diagnosed with colorectal cancer.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Linda Xiao for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini.

Add chicken meatballs to this soup with lemon and feta.

Spread the best butter.

Take our election news quiz.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was portrayal.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David and Ian

P.S. Ian wrote about what he heard from Trump supporters at his Madison Square Garden rally last week.

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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