WPR Daily Review

"For Biden and the U.S., Africa is still an afterthought."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correpondent.  Accessed on 01 November 2024, 2124 UTC.

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November 1, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the Biden administration’s disappointing engagement with Africa and North Korea’s deployment of troops to assist Russia in the war in Ukraine.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Botswana’s now-President-elect Duma Boko, of the Umbrella for Democratic Change, fills out a ballot paper inside a voting booth during the elections in Gaborone, Botswana, Oct. 30, 2024 (AP photo by Themba Hadebe).

Botswana: President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat following general elections Wednesday, ending nearly six decades of rule by the Botswana Democratic Party, or BPD. Partial results indicated that the main opposition party, Umbrella for Democratic Change, or UDC, was on track to win a majority of seats in Parliament, which elects Botswana’s president. (AP)

Our Take: The BDP has governed Botswana since the country gained independence from the U.K. in 1966, in large part because it had gained a reputation for good governance. For many decades, Botswana was held up as a counterexample to the “resource curse,” with the country utilizing its massive diamond exports for consistently strong development, while maintaining its democratic credentials.

But there were already concerns about the strength of that reputation heading into this vote. A global decline in demand for diamonds has hit Botswana’s economy hard, and unemployment is on the rise, reaching nearly 28 percent overall and 38 percent among young people. That speaks to how resource-based development, even when relatively well-managed, can be a double-edged sword, leaving countries that depend on it at the mercy of the inevitable busts of the commodities cycle.

In addition to the economic slump, polls in Botswana have also shown declining satisfaction with democracy and growing concerns about corruption in the BDP, tarnishing the party’s reputation for good governance. Although there was little doubt that this vote would be free and fair, had the BDP won yet again, those governance concerns likely would have worsened. The BDP may also have reached the expiration date of its independence-era bona fides and legacy, with the younger generation of voters not demonstrating the same loyalty to the party as older generations have.

The election and the peaceful transfer of power that followed mark a bright spot for democracy on the continent. It’s worth noting, though, that many of these economic and generational trends are not specific to Botswana. In Botswana, voters demanding accountability were able to effectively express themselves through the ballot box. Elsewhere that expression comes in the form of popular protests, at times heeded, but often violently suppressed.

Both speak to the same grievances and aspirations. The contrasts in responsiveness to them highlights the problems plaguing governance across the continent, which though not exclusive to Africa and often portrayed through the lens of racist tropes are nonetheless real.

But it would also be a mistake to err on the opposite side of focusing only on the mechanical processes of democracy to assess governance in Africa. Because ultimately, whether in Botswana or elsewhere, elections can only be a bright spot for democracy if they deliver for the country’s people.

Like all U.S. presidents, Joe Biden took office in January 2021 with a decidedly low bar to clear for engagement with African governments and populations. But his immediate predecessor, former President Donald Trump, had lowered that bar even further.

Given the contempt and hostility that characterized Washington’s engagement with the continent during Trump’s presidency, even the slightest improvement by his successor would seemingly indicate progress in the relationship.

And for a time, it even seemed like Biden might surpass that bare minimum. But as Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé writes, after getting off to what at least appeared to be a good start, the Biden administration’s engagement with African capitals proved to be lethargic, reactive and unambitious.

For Biden and the U.S., Africa Is Still an Afterthought By Chris Olaoluwa Ògúnmọ́dẹdé Despite showing some early promise, Joe Biden’s engagement with Africa ultimately proved to be lethargic, reactive and unambitious.

*****

Just as the war in Gaza is expanding, with Israel now in direct conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, so too is the war in Ukraine.

To be clear, ever since Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine over two and a half years ago, involvement in that war has not been limited to the two primary belligerents. But the nature of Moscow’s external support changed this past week, when it was confirmed by U.S. and European intelligence sources that Pyongyang has sent approximately 10,000 North Korean troops to train in Russia.

The significance of this development cannot be overstated. Columnist Paul Poast explains why:

Russia’s North Korea Gambit Could Make the War in Ukraine Go Global By Paul Poast The significance of North Korea deploying troops to fight alongside Russian troops cannot be overstated.

Next Tuesday, Nov. 5, U.S. voters will go to polls to decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will be the country’s next president. The outcome will have a huge impact not only for the U.S., but for the world as well, given Washington’s outsized influence in global politics.

This week, we asked: Who will win the U.S. presidential election next week?

The results? 70% of respondents said Kamala Harris, compared to 30% who said Donald Trump.

In the months leading up to the U.N. COP29 Climate Change Conference, which will be hosted by Azerbaijan this year, Baku has engaged in one of its most aggressive campaigns of repression in years. Authorities in the country have arrested dozens of journalists and civil society leaders, including a well-known climate activist.

The campaign echoes a similar dynamic seen in Egypt ahead of COP27 two years ago, when Egyptian authorities cracked down on climate and human rights activists, while also limiting the participation of domestic civil society in the conference. As Mai El-Sadany wrote then, the repression underscored the fact that countries cannot deliver on climate justice without also delivering on social justice.

Egypt’s Rights Record Makes a Mockery of Climate Justice at COP 27 By Mai El-Sadany Oct. 20, 2022 | Egypt’s human rights and environmental records will undermine the UN COP27 Climate Change Conference as well as climate justice more broadly.

*****

A former U.S. Navy contractor known as “Fat Leonard” who embezzled tens of millions of dollars from the U.S. military is scheduled to be sentenced on fraud and bribery charges Tuesday. Leonard Glenn Francis agreed to a plea deal with the U.S. Justice Department that could see him freed from prison in as little as one year.

The case was the most extensive corruption scandal to hit the U.S. military in years, taking a significant toll on the U.S. Navy’s budget and morale. But as Alexander Clarkson wrote in April, corruption is just one of a number of major issues facing the U.S. Navy that have resulted in a serious readiness crisis.

The U.S. Navy’s Readiness Crisis Is a Problem for Europe, Too By Alexander Clarkson April 17, 2024 | For more than a century, naval power was a crucial part of U.S. global power. But now, a structural crisis in the U.S. Navy threatens that power.

*****

The Israeli military said it had concluded a raid in the Nur Shams area of the occupied West Bank, killing several militants. The raid is just the latest in a series of ever-more destructive Israeli military actions in the territory, which as Hugh Lovatt wrote last month is rapidly turning into ground zero for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

*****

Algeria has pardoned Ihsane El Kadi, a journalist who rose to prominence during the country’s 2019 pro-democracy protests, as well as eight other people who were imprisoned for criticizing the state. As Francisco Serrano wrote last year when Algiers passed purported reforms to its laws regulating the media, the country’s repressive military autocracy has a long history of giving the illusion of reform, even as it maintains the status quo.

Upcoming Elections

Moldova votes in a run-off presidential election Sunday. Incumbent pro-Western President Maia Sandu is running against former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who has pro-Russian support.

The United States votes in general elections Tuesday. Read our take on how the presidential election could affect U.S. foreign policy in yesterday’s edition of the Daily Review and read all our coverage of the race here.

More from WPR

Frida Ghitis on Georgia’s contested elections. Francisco Serrano on Egypt’s stakes in the Horn of Africa. Richard Gowan on Antonio Guterres’ presence at the BRICS summit. Alexander Clarkson on the fractured U.S. media landscape.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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