WPR Daily Review

"China's economy faces a conundrum of Xi's making."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporter and correspondents.  Accessed on 16 October 2024, 0239 UTC. 

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Russ Roberts (http://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

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October 15, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the economic conundrum facing the Chinese government and Bulgaria’s fraught media environment.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau during a news conference in Ottawa on the investigative efforts related to violent criminal activity occurring in Canada with connection to India, Oct. 14, 2024 (Photo by Justin Tang for the Canadian Press via AP).

Canada-India: Canada expelled the top diplomat from India in the country as well as five others, saying they were part of a campaign of violence and intimidation against Indian dissidents—including the assassination last year of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar—at the behest of the Indian government. New Delhi denied the allegations and reciprocated, expelling six Canadian diplomats. (New York Times)

Our Take: Although Canada did not publicly reveal the details of its case against the Indian government and its diplomats, the fact that it was willing to go public with such serious allegations suggests that Ottawa has strong evidence to support its claims. In addition to the accusation made last year about India’s involvement in the Nijjar assassination, Canada now alleges that Indian diplomats have been collecting information about Canadians and passing it on to organized criminal networks functioning as enforcers, and that violence and intimidation by the Indian government has actually increased since last year.

To be clear, there is an assumption and expectation that diplomatic delegations everywhere include some personnel involved in espionage—including for keeping tabs on expat dissidents—even among partners and allies. What Canada is alleging here, though, crosses a very serious line into transnational repression.

Assuming that Canada’s case has substance, that would underscore the degree to which Indian PM Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda has emboldened the Indian government to not only target dissidents at home—an issue that has been reported on for years—but abroad as well. It’s just one aspect of the broader democratic backsliding seen in India under Modi, which some have speculated could damage New Delhi’s international standing, particularly among Western democracies.

And yet, Canada’s initial accusation last year did not have a significant impact on India’s relations with the West, even after U.S. intelligence tacitly admitted that Nijjar’s assassination was not an isolated case. That underscores just how much value the West sees in India as a geopolitical partner for countering China in Asia.

Of course, Canada’s allegations yesterday are broader and much more serious than the accusation made last September. The bilateral tensions between the countries, already high, could very well escalate further, especially if strong evidence against the Indian government becomes public. That would also exact a reputational cost for India that could complicate continued engagement with the Modi government.

More broadly, the allegations also further underscore the degree to which the global norms and rules against transnational repression have been significantly eroded in recent years. States, both democratic and authoritarian, appear to be more comfortable targeting dissidents abroad. That is an alarming trend, because it violates not only human rights but also sovereignty, which always comes with the potential for volatile and unpredictable effects on international affairs.

The Chinese government recently announced a series of measures that aim to stabilize the country’s economy, spur economic growth and boost confidence in the long-term viability of China’s growth model. The recent moves have once again put the spotlight on the headwinds facing China’s economy and Beijing’s efforts to address them.

They’ve also highlighted the fundamental challenge that the Chinese government faces, which is the desire to boost confidence without unleashing unrealistic expectations on the part of Chinese consumers and investors, columnist Mary Gallagher writes.

China’s Economy Faces a Conundrum of Xi’s Making

By Mary Gallagher Facing economic headwinds, the Chinese government wants to boost confidence. Xi’s suspicion of stimulus may make that impossible.

*****

In April, then-Bulgarian Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov filed defamation lawsuits against two investigative journalists, Atanas Chobanov and Dimitar Stoyanov, whose reporting had linked Stoyanov to a broader corruption case.

This was just the latest illustration of a worrisome trend in Bulgaria: the rising use of lawsuits to intimidate and crack down on critical voices like journalists, with the aim of silencing them or shutting down legitimate investigations.

The growing use of these lawsuits highlights how political intimidation has made it harder for Bulgaria’s media to maintain its role as a watchdog over governmental powers. That in turn undermines the country’s ability to address its myriad challenges, Viktoria Ivanova writes.

For Bulgaria’s Journalists, Speaking Truth to Power Can Be Costly

By Viktoria Ivanova Despite progress in recent years, political intimidation is still creating to a fraught media environment in Bulgaria, threatening its democratic credentials.

Question of the Day: Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino is promoting a $5 billion project to build a high-speed rail line from Panama to what country?

Nicaragua Costa Rica Colombia Ecuador

Find the answer in the latest WPR Weekly Quiz, then read Cristina Guevara’s briefing on the challenges facing Mulino after a strong first 100 days in office.

Italy sent a boat carrying migrants to Albania for the first time yesterday, as part of a plan to send some asylum-seekers—specifically “non-vulnerable” men coming from “safe countries”—rescued by Italian authorities in the Mediterranean to Albania while their claims are processed. The Italian government argues the plan will better manage and deter migration, but human rights groups have criticized it for putting asylum-seekers at further risk of rights violations.

The plan is just the latest example of Global North countries finding alternative ways to manage an influx of migrants, including by outsourcing processing to third countries and creating resettlement schemes, which purport to open up legal migration to more refugees. As Matthew J. Gibney wrote in 2022, though, Global North countries often rely on these alternative plans in an effort to avoid fulfilling their international obligations, while ignoring more humane options for addressing the issue.

Instead of Resettlement Schemes, Make Migration Easier

By Matthew J. Gibney June 6, 2023 | The Global North is now prioritizing resettlement over accepting asylum-seekers at the border. But there are better alternatives.

*****

China held large-scale military drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan yesterday, a direct response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s comments during a speech last week that China and Taiwan were “not subordinate to each other” and that Beijing had “no right to represent Taiwan.”

In response to what it views as Taiwan’s more assertive promotion of its sovereignty, China has in recent years ramped up its intimidation campaign against Taiwan. As Thomas J. Shattuck wrote in 2022, China’s moves now include an expanded political, military and economic coercion toolkit to punish Taipei for anything that Beijing considers to be a breach of the status quo.

China’s Response to Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Is Rewriting the Playbook

By Thomas J. Shattuck Aug. 4, 2022 | In response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit this week to Taiwan, China has applied an expanded political, military and economic coercion toolkit to punish Taipei.

*****

The civil war in Sudan is being fueled by secret weapons shipments to both sides from the UAE and Iran, the Washington Post reports. As Elfadil Ibrahim wrote earlier this year, the UAE has backed the paramilitary RSF since the war’s beginning, a decision that apparently backfired after it drew in Iran’s support for the opposing Sudanese government forces.

*****

Russia and China blocked a proposed consensus statement at last week’s ASEAN-sponsored East Asia Summit over language related to the South China Sea, despite the statement having been already agreed to earlier in the week by the members of ASEAN. The Southeast Asian bloc has been criticized in recent years for its lack of decisive action to address China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. Read more about how ASEAN lost its luster in this Daily Review from last week.

More from WPR

Anchal Vohra on divisions in the EU over the war in Gaza. Paul Poast on today’s pressing questions about “hegemony.” Frida Ghitis on how the Israel-Hezbollah war will affect Lebanon. Cristina Guevara on Panama’s new president.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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