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"The book that explains the 2024 campaign."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

October 29, 2024

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We’re covering the country’s working-class majority — as well as election interference, North Korean troops and liberal Catholics.

Dayton, Ohio, left, and Yale University. Ty Wright, Christopher Capozziello for The New York Times

Dayton versus Yale

If you want to understand this year’s election, a book published in 1970 turns out to be surprisingly useful. Both liberal and conservative analysts have recently cited its ideas, and the Harris and Trump campaigns have embraced its arguments in different ways.

The book’s title is “The Real Majority,” and it appeared during Richard Nixon’s first term. Its authors were two Democrats hoping to save their party from future defeats: Richard Scammon, who had run the Census Bureau under John F. Kennedy, and Ben Wattenberg, who’d been a speechwriter for Lyndon Johnson.

Scammon and Wattenberg believed that their fellow Democrats misunderstood the country’s electorate. The energy of the 1960s had led the party to imagine that the typical voter was young and highly educated. As a hypothetical example, the book described a 24-year-old political science instructor at Yale University. In reality, the authors wrote, the typical voter resembled a 47-year-old woman living in the suburbs of Dayton, Ohio, who didn’t have a college degree and whose husband worked as a machinist.

This Dayton voter wasn’t poor, but she struggled with rising inflation. She worried about crime, student protests and drug use, polls showed. She felt ambivalent about the Vietnam War. She was one of the “plain people,” as Scammon and Wattenberg put it, who had long voted Democratic but was uncomfortable with the party’s leftward shift — toward the views of that 24-year-old Yale instructor. Unless Democrats changed course, the authors wrote, “we may well see Republican presidents in the White House for a generation.”

The book was prophetic: Republicans won four of the next five presidential elections, including landslides by Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

The new 1960s

The book also foreshadowed the political dynamics in 2024, when the cost of living is a major issue, foreign wars rage and the Democratic Party is trying to leave behind a period of liberal foment.

When “The Real Majority” appeared, that period was the 1960s. Today, it is the late 2010s and early 2020s, when many Democrats pushed unpopular ideas, such as less border security, less policing, long Covid lockdowns, the end of private health insurance and the decriminalization of hard drugs. All those ideas are more popular on college campuses than in places like Dayton. And the country more closely resembles Dayton; roughly 60 percent of voters do not have a four-year college degree.

Ben Wattenberg, left, and Richard Scammon.

“There is a natural working-class majority in American politics and those who hope to lead the country ignore it at their peril,” Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, wrote in his recent book, “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the G.O.P.” Ruffini cited the Dayton-Yale framework. Timothy Shenk, a progressive historian at George Washington University, also used the framework in his new book “Left Adrift: What Happened to Liberal Politics.”

(You may be interested in Shenk’s recent Times Opinion essay about the most effective ways to combat Trumpism, as well as Ruffini’s list of the 21 communities that will help decide next week’s election, with maps.)

Class over age

The working-class majority holds a complex set of views. It tends to be deeply dissatisfied with the country’s direction and to want sweeping change. It leans left on economic policies, like Medicare and Social Security, while worrying about government overreach. It leans isolationist on foreign policy. It tends to be wary of trade and immigration and to feel positively about the military and the police.

Donald Trump managed to take over the Republican Party in 2016, and then win the presidency, with help from his gut feel for working-class politics (despite his own wealth). He defied Republican orthodoxy by criticizing trade and immigration while promising not to cut Medicare and Social Security. If he wins again this year, it will be partly by appealing to people whom Democrats wrongly imagined as loyal progressives — including Black, Latino, Asian American and younger voters. Social class, as Scammon and Wattenberg suggested, can be an even better predictor of a person’s vote than race or age.

Much of Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign is also consistent with their arguments. After adopting fiercely liberal positions four years ago, she has reversed course and changed her positions on immigration, fracking and more. Her ads describe her as “a border state prosecutor.” She emphasizes patriotism and economic populism.

Still, it’s a tricky pivot: More Americans describe Harris as “too liberal” (44 percent) than describe Trump as “too conservative” (32 percent), according to a New York Times/Siena College poll last month. I know that many people find that comparison hard to fathom. “The Real Majority” helps make sense of it.

For more: On today’s episode of “The Daily,” Michael Barbaro and I explain why immigration has become such a sore spot for working-class voters. And in this short Times video, I break down the campaign advertisements of several Democratic Senate candidates who are running strong races in purple and red states — including Ohio.

THE LATEST NEWS

Democratic Campaign

Kamala Harris in Michigan.  Brittany Greeson for The New York Times

Harris campaigned across Michigan. In Philadelphia, John Legend and Bruce Springsteen performed at a rally featuring Barack Obama. Harris campaign aides argue that the race is shifting in her favor and that her warnings about Trump and abortion are breaking through. President Biden waited in line and voted early for Harris near his hometown, Wilmington, Del. A reporter asked him whether it was bittersweet. “No, this is just sweet,” he said. Harris has avoided campaigning alongside Biden in the final days of the race. Her campaign believes that his unpopularity would hurt her chances. Michael Bloomberg, who had given less to Democrats this year than in 2018 and 2020, donated about $50 million to support Harris.

Republican Campaign

Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden. Kenny Holston/The New York Times

The Trump campaign denounced a comedian’s offensive jokes about Puerto Rico and minorities at a rally in Madison Square Garden. Republican lawmakers also distanced themselves from the remarks. Trump is using much more profanity now than he did in 2016. What minimal self-restraint he once showed in his public discourse has evaporated, Peter Baker and Dylan Freedman write. If he wins, Trump would likely have more financial conflicts of interest than any previous president. He has ties to foreign governments, real estate deals and a publicly traded social media company. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Trump stopped talking about a federal abortion ban. These charts show how else his language changed. Philadelphia’s district attorney sued Elon Musk’s super PAC over its $1 million giveaways to people who both registered to vote and signed a conservative petition. A growing number of voters say that Trump was “just exercising his right” to contest the 2020 election results, New York Times/Siena College polling finds, and most aren’t worried that he will try to contest this year’s results.

More on 2024

Foreign election interference has become more sophisticated with the help of A.I. Read about efforts by China, Iran and Russia. In response to rising migration, both Trump and Harris promise restrictions on political asylum, breaking with decades of U.S. policy. Two ballot drop boxes — one in Oregon, one in Washington State — were set on fire. The police believe the arsons are linked. Three Washington Post journalists stepped down from the paper’s editorial board in protest of Jeff Bezos’ decision not to endorse a presidential candidate. (Bezos wrote a defense of his decision in The Post.)

War in Ukraine

Ukraine is bracing for North Korean soldiers to attack alongside Russian troops. Thousands of North Korean soldiers are now in Russia’s west. Russian glide bombs, which fly so quietly that they evade detection, are menacing a Ukrainian city thought to be a haven from the war. Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing Western leaders to support a plan that he says could end the war next year. He has received a lukewarm response.

Middle East

In Sana, Yemen. Mohammed Huwais/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The Iran-backed Houthi militia has arrested dozens of Yemenis linked to the U.S. Embassy or international agencies. Hezbollah named a new leader, Naim Qassem, a longtime deputy. The Israeli Parliament passed laws that could threaten the work of UNRWA, the main U.N. agency that aids Palestinians.

Other Big Stories

Steve Bannon, the strategist who helped elect Trump in 2016, was released from prison this morning. “I’m not broken, I’m empowered,” he said. In Austin, Texas, Musk is trying to create a compound where his children — of which there are at least 11 — and their mothers could live. It’s been complicated. A Ph.D. student accidentally found a lost Maya city in a Mexican jungle, including pyramids and amphitheaters, the BBC reports. In Brazil, criminals are increasingly using chemicals instead of chain saws for deforestation. More than a third of the world’s trees are at risk of extinction, scientists say.

Opinions

Climate disasters have made renting a safer financial choice than homeownership, Benjamin Keys argues.

Trump says America is on the decline. The data says otherwise, Steven Pinker writes.

Here are columns by Michelle Goldberg on Trump’s New York rally, and Lydia Polgreen on the BRICS bloc.

Readers of The Morning: Don’t miss out on a full year of savings.

From in-depth coverage of Decision 2024 to unlimited news and analysis, Games, Cooking, The Athletic and more, subscribe now for only $1 a week for your first year.

MORNING READS

In Burnaby, British Columbia. Alana Paterson for The New York Times

Wildlife: Crows can hold grudges, scientists say. Their wrath can be alarming.

Ask Vanessa: “What is the perfect length for a winter coat?”

A lot of Cheddar: Scammers stole 22 metric tons of rare cheese from a leading London retailer.

Lives Lived: Paul Morrissey collaborated with Andy Warhol in the late 1960s and early ’70s to create films that captured New York’s demimonde of drug addicts, drag queens and hipsters. Morrissey died at 86.

SPORTS

M.L.B.: The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees, 4-2. The Dodgers are one victory away from winning the World Series.

N.F.L.: In Pittsburgh, the Steelers beat the New York Giants.

N.B.A.: The Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero delivered the first 50-point game of the season. He scored 37 points in the first half alone.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Dominic Preziosi, editor of Commonweal. Natalie Keyssar for The New York Times

Commonweal magazine was founded in 1924 as a sort of Catholic version of the The New Republic, a journal for middle-class, liberal-minded members of the faith. It attracted an illustrious roster of writers, including Dorothy Day, W.H. Auden and John Updike. But a century later, with Mass attendance dwindling and the church’s conservative voices growing louder, Commonweal is wrestling with its place.

More on culture

Jon Stewart will continue to host “The Daily Show” on Monday nights through next year. After Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden, Stewart said: “How dare they desecrate the stage that the Piano Man has consecrated?”

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Bryan Gardner for The New York Times

Cover salmon in an everything bagel seasoning and serve with a creamy caper sauce.

Use this cream on curly hair.

Open a bottle of wine with these corkscrews.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was warming.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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