"Harris makes closing pitch, Forecasting tight races, Alphabet's strong earnings."
Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents. Accessed on 29 October 2024, 2331 UTC.
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
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Flagship
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The World Today
- Harris makes closing pitch
- Forecasting tight races
- Alphabet’s strong earnings
- Saudi wealth fund pivot
- Singapore is deep tech hub
- India’s clean energy boost
- Luckin plots US push
- Fuji is snowless
- K-pop hit distracts students
- Notre Dame visitor fee
The pyramids of Giza are transformed into open-air sculptures.
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Harris focuses on Trump in closing pitch
Flagship
Asia Morning Edition
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The World Today
Harris focuses on Trump in closing pitch
The importance of election predictions
Predicting the US election’s outcome is important even in a race that’s too close to call, the statistician Andrew Gelman argued in Nature. Good predictive models rely on frequent feedback — and unlike sports or the weather, elections are rarer events. Still, the value of forecasting lies “not in the predictions themselves, but in how they portray uncertainty and the stability of the race over time,” Gelman wrote. Attention-grabbing daily polls can cause overreactions, whereas science-based forecasts can “temper enthusiasm for outlandish claims.” And even though a model predicting a toss-up may seem pointless, “the alternative to good statistics is not ‘no statistics,’ it’s ‘bad statistics.’” Prediction models won’t stop pundits from spinning stories around each poll, but at least they can refine the storytelling.
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Cloud division boosts Google revenue
Google’s parent company Alphabet reported better than-expected revenue Tuesday, as investors hunted for clues on whether Wall Street can sustain its AI obsession. Google’s Cloud division, which increased its revenue 35% year-on-year, appeared to be a large factor in the earnings boost. Cloud services are an increasingly lucrative business, as more companies turn to cloud computing to power AI. While Google lags behind cloud providers Amazon and Microsoft in terms of market share, the tech giant has undergone a significant reorganization this year to try and pull ahead in the AI arms race and is primed for growth in the sector, according to a recent McKinsey report.
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Saudi investment fund looks inward
Nathan Howard/Reuters Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is scaling back its international investments and redirecting capital to domestic projects. The head of the $930 billion fund said Tuesday that it would cut funds invested overseas from 30% of its assets to around 20%, while accelerating investments in the 92 Saudi companies established by the fund, including its futuristic megacity Neom and video game ventures, Semafor reported. The pivot is a sign of the kingdom’s efforts to reignite its domestic economy that has faced declining oil revenues, the Financial Times reported: Even as Saudi officials point to ambitious real estate projects and the kingdom’s hosting of major international sporting events, “a new realism has taken hold.”
Subscribe to Semafor Gulf for more news and insights from the fast-growing region. →
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Singapore becomes deep tech hub
Caroline Chia/Reuters “Deep tech” startups are thriving in Singapore thanks to the US-China rivalry. Investment in the sector — which focuses on advanced innovation in areas that could have broad impact, like self-driving vehicles, semiconductors, and robotics — has increased in the city-state, despite an overall drop in startup funding, Nikkei Asia reported. Tensions between the US and China have also drawn investors to Singapore’s more “neutral appeal,” a local investor said. The investment surge has propelled Singapore to lead Asia in the global startup ecosystem rankings this year. The European Union, meanwhile, is racing to keep up with the US and China in deep tech: The bloc said Tuesday it will spend $1.5 billion next year to boost research and startups.
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US’ China tariffs boost Indian firm
Amit Dave/Reuters US tariffs on Chinese solar panels have boosted the fortunes of the family behind one of India’s largest renewables companies. The scion of Waaree Energies became one of the world’s richest people Monday, after shares of the solar manufacturer surged following its $514 million IPO, Bloomberg reported. The company gets most of its revenue from exports to the US, as investors grow more interested in India’s renewable energy industry, which has been aided by government spending and reforms. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes to more than double renewable energy production by 2030, but the industry may need trillions in investment to do so, and it faces challenges stemming from rapid growth and poor cash flow, analysts said.
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Luckin Coffee plots US expansion
China’s biggest coffee chain is entering the US market, in a challenge to American rivals. In China, Luckin Coffee’s revenue exceeded that of Starbucks in 2023 for the first time, and the company hopes to undercut the Seattle-based giant and other US competitors like Dunkin’ by selling coffee for as little as $2 to $3, the Financial Times reported. The US launch, planned for as early as next year, is set to target cities with high numbers of Chinese students and tourists, like New York. Years ago, “many people thought [Luckin was] dead,” following a fraud scandal over inflated revenues, a Chinese business analyst said. But the company’s tech innovations helped it rebound, Roast Magazine wrote: It has a strong focus on mobile ordering and automation.
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Semafor Spotlight
US Embassy Tanzania The Kamala Harris campaign has assembled a 25-strong team to devise a comprehensive US-Africa policy if she wins the White House next month, Semafor’s Yinka Adegoke scooped. People close to the Harris-Walz campaign say US-Africa policy, which is usually low down on US foreign policy priorities, “will get a lot more attention under Harris” if they win the White House and build on the Biden Administration’s attempts to upgrade the status of US-Africa policy.
For more news on the African continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →
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Mount Fuji remains snowless
Wikimedia Commons Japan’s iconic Mount Fuji remains snowless this season, breaking a 130-year-old record. The country’s highest and most sacred mountain usually has a dusting of snow by early October. The Japanese meteorological office has announced the first snowfall each year since its foundation in 1894. But high temperatures and continued rainfall have kept the peak clear as of Oct. 29, CNN reported, beating the previous record of Oct. 26. Japan saw its hottest summer ever this year, and remained unseasonably warm into fall, likely a result of increasing global temperatures as well as the recent El Niño warm-weather phenomenon.
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K-pop hit upsets Malaysia
ROSÉ via YouTube A hit K-pop song drew ire from the Malaysian government over its lyrics, and frustration from Korean students who blamed its catchy tune for being too distracting. Malaysia’s Ministry of Health said APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars promotes negative Western values and “an unhealthy lifestyle”: The song is inspired by a popular Korean drinking game. Koreans, meanwhile, have become so addicted to the song that some pupils are avoiding listening to it for fear that it could disrupt their focus for the upcoming and high-pressure Suneung college prep exam. APT. has become a global hit, debuting at No. 8 on the Billboard Hot 100 and making Rosé, a member of girl group Blackpink, the first female K-pop artist to crack the top 10.
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France proposes Notre Dame fee
Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters Visitors to Paris’ refurbished Notre Dame cathedral may have to pay a €5 ($5.40) entrance fee when it reopens in December. The medieval basilica — which saw 14 million visitors per year before it was gutted by a fire in 2019 — required a $750 million restoration. France’s culture minister said the proposed fee could raise $75 million annually and “save all the churches in Paris and France,” many of which are in poor condition. But the move is opposed by the cathedral itself, which said the Catholic Church insists on free entry to all churches because “pilgrims and visitors have never been distinguished.” It may also be illegal under a 1905 law that prevents the French state from taking money from religious establishments.
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Flagging
Oct. 30:
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets the European Council’s President-elect António Costa in Brussels.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks on the future of US diplomacy.
- Martha, a documentary about Martha Stewart, premieres on Netflix.
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Curio
Shilo Shiv Suleman, Padma/Lotus. Culturvator The pyramids of Giza have been transformed into open-air sculptures as a UNESCO-supported art exhibition returns to the Egyptian desert. Now in its fourth edition, Forever is Now sees 12 international artists — including for the first time, two from Asia — apply a contemporary lens to the 4,500-year-old site, creating installations that incorporate the ancient geometry of the pyramids to “invoke a surreal mise en scène often suggesting sci-fi cinematic epics,” The Art Newspaper wrote. At a time of immense upheaval in the Middle East that “sees our present disturbed in myriad ways,” curators Art D’Égypte said, the exhibition is guided by the belief that “there is no conception of the future without history.”
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters US presidential candidate Kamala Harris delivers her closing argument Tuesday in the same location where Donald Trump spoke to supporters on Jan. 6, 2021 before they stormed the Capitol. That violence, which Harris sees as symbolic of Trump’s threat to democracy, will form the “spine of her argument” at the Ellipse in Washington, The New York Times wrote. While she is also expected to go after her Republican rival’s economic policies, including proposed tariff hikes that could frustrate US trading partners, Harris offers her own version of protectionism, a World Politics Review columnist wrote. But if Harris wins the election, she is likely to use tariffs more selectively and strategically “as a means of eventually making them unnecessary.”
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The importance of election predictions
Predicting the US election’s outcome is important even in a race that’s too close to call, the statistician Andrew Gelman argued in Nature. Good predictive models rely on frequent feedback — and unlike sports or the weather, elections are rarer events. Still, the value of forecasting lies “not in the predictions themselves, but in how they portray uncertainty and the stability of the race over time,” Gelman wrote. Attention-grabbing daily polls can cause overreactions, whereas science-based forecasts can “temper enthusiasm for outlandish claims.” And even though a model predicting a toss-up may seem pointless, “the alternative to good statistics is not ‘no statistics,’ it’s ‘bad statistics.’” Prediction models won’t stop pundits from spinning stories around each poll, but at least they can refine the storytelling.
↓
3
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Cloud division boosts Google revenue
Google’s parent company Alphabet reported better than-expected revenue Tuesday, as investors hunted for clues on whether Wall Street can sustain its AI obsession. Google’s Cloud division, which increased its revenue 35% year-on-year, appeared to be a large factor in the earnings boost. Cloud services are an increasingly lucrative business, as more companies turn to cloud computing to power AI. While Google lags behind cloud providers Amazon and Microsoft in terms of market share, the tech giant has undergone a significant reorganization this year to try and pull ahead in the AI arms race and is primed for growth in the sector, according to a recent McKinsey report.
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4
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Saudi investment fund looks inward
Nathan Howard/Reuters Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is scaling back its international investments and redirecting capital to domestic projects. The head of the $930 billion fund said Tuesday that it would cut funds invested overseas from 30% of its assets to around 20%, while accelerating investments in the 92 Saudi companies established by the fund, including its futuristic megacity Neom and video game ventures, Semafor reported. The pivot is a sign of the kingdom’s efforts to reignite its domestic economy that has faced declining oil revenues, the Financial Times reported: Even as Saudi officials point to ambitious real estate projects and the kingdom’s hosting of major international sporting events, “a new realism has taken hold.”
Subscribe to Semafor Gulf for more news and insights from the fast-growing region. →
↓
5
|
| ↓ |
|
Singapore becomes deep tech hub
Caroline Chia/Reuters “Deep tech” startups are thriving in Singapore thanks to the US-China rivalry. Investment in the sector — which focuses on advanced innovation in areas that could have broad impact, like self-driving vehicles, semiconductors, and robotics — has increased in the city-state, despite an overall drop in startup funding, Nikkei Asia reported. Tensions between the US and China have also drawn investors to Singapore’s more “neutral appeal,” a local investor said. The investment surge has propelled Singapore to lead Asia in the global startup ecosystem rankings this year. The European Union, meanwhile, is racing to keep up with the US and China in deep tech: The bloc said Tuesday it will spend $1.5 billion next year to boost research and startups.
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6
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US’ China tariffs boost Indian firm
Amit Dave/Reuters US tariffs on Chinese solar panels have boosted the fortunes of the family behind one of India’s largest renewables companies. The scion of Waaree Energies became one of the world’s richest people Monday, after shares of the solar manufacturer surged following its $514 million IPO, Bloomberg reported. The company gets most of its revenue from exports to the US, as investors grow more interested in India’s renewable energy industry, which has been aided by government spending and reforms. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes to more than double renewable energy production by 2030, but the industry may need trillions in investment to do so, and it faces challenges stemming from rapid growth and poor cash flow, analysts said.
↓
7
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| ↓ |
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Luckin Coffee plots US expansion
China’s biggest coffee chain is entering the US market, in a challenge to American rivals. In China, Luckin Coffee’s revenue exceeded that of Starbucks in 2023 for the first time, and the company hopes to undercut the Seattle-based giant and other US competitors like Dunkin’ by selling coffee for as little as $2 to $3, the Financial Times reported. The US launch, planned for as early as next year, is set to target cities with high numbers of Chinese students and tourists, like New York. Years ago, “many people thought [Luckin was] dead,” following a fraud scandal over inflated revenues, a Chinese business analyst said. But the company’s tech innovations helped it rebound, Roast Magazine wrote: It has a strong focus on mobile ordering and automation.
↓
Semafor Spotlight
US Embassy Tanzania The Kamala Harris campaign has assembled a 25-strong team to devise a comprehensive US-Africa policy if she wins the White House next month, Semafor’s Yinka Adegoke scooped. People close to the Harris-Walz campaign say US-Africa policy, which is usually low down on US foreign policy priorities, “will get a lot more attention under Harris” if they win the White House and build on the Biden Administration’s attempts to upgrade the status of US-Africa policy.
For more news on the African continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →
↓
8
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| ↓ |
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Mount Fuji remains snowless
Wikimedia Commons Japan’s iconic Mount Fuji remains snowless this season, breaking a 130-year-old record. The country’s highest and most sacred mountain usually has a dusting of snow by early October. The Japanese meteorological office has announced the first snowfall each year since its foundation in 1894. But high temperatures and continued rainfall have kept the peak clear as of Oct. 29, CNN reported, beating the previous record of Oct. 26. Japan saw its hottest summer ever this year, and remained unseasonably warm into fall, likely a result of increasing global temperatures as well as the recent El Niño warm-weather phenomenon.
↓
9
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| ↓ |
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K-pop hit upsets Malaysia
ROSÉ via YouTube A hit K-pop song drew ire from the Malaysian government over its lyrics, and frustration from Korean students who blamed its catchy tune for being too distracting. Malaysia’s Ministry of Health said APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars promotes negative Western values and “an unhealthy lifestyle”: The song is inspired by a popular Korean drinking game. Koreans, meanwhile, have become so addicted to the song that some pupils are avoiding listening to it for fear that it could disrupt their focus for the upcoming and high-pressure Suneung college prep exam. APT. has become a global hit, debuting at No. 8 on the Billboard Hot 100 and making Rosé, a member of girl group Blackpink, the first female K-pop artist to crack the top 10.
↓
10
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| ↓ |
|
France proposes Notre Dame fee
Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters Visitors to Paris’ refurbished Notre Dame cathedral may have to pay a €5 ($5.40) entrance fee when it reopens in December. The medieval basilica — which saw 14 million visitors per year before it was gutted by a fire in 2019 — required a $750 million restoration. France’s culture minister said the proposed fee could raise $75 million annually and “save all the churches in Paris and France,” many of which are in poor condition. But the move is opposed by the cathedral itself, which said the Catholic Church insists on free entry to all churches because “pilgrims and visitors have never been distinguished.” It may also be illegal under a 1905 law that prevents the French state from taking money from religious establishments.
↓
Flagging
Oct. 30:
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets the European Council’s President-elect António Costa in Brussels.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks on the future of US diplomacy.
- Martha, a documentary about Martha Stewart, premieres on Netflix.
↓
Curio
Shilo Shiv Suleman, Padma/Lotus. Culturvator The pyramids of Giza have been transformed into open-air sculptures as a UNESCO-supported art exhibition returns to the Egyptian desert. Now in its fourth edition, Forever is Now sees 12 international artists — including for the first time, two from Asia — apply a contemporary lens to the 4,500-year-old site, creating installations that incorporate the ancient geometry of the pyramids to “invoke a surreal mise en scène often suggesting sci-fi cinematic epics,” The Art Newspaper wrote. At a time of immense upheaval in the Middle East that “sees our present disturbed in myriad ways,” curators Art D’Égypte said, the exhibition is guided by the belief that “there is no conception of the future without history.”
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.