Semafor Flagship-Asia Morning Edition

 "Georgia vote stirs chaos, Japan rejects ruling party, US election enters last days."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 27 October 2024, 2227 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

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Shanghai  Mumbai  Tokyo October 28, 2024

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The World Today

Georgia vote stirs chaos Japan rejects ruling party US election enters last days Musk’s outsized role Investors seek refuge in India Iran mulls Israel response TSMC ups foreign production Shanghai’s Halloween scare Evolution scientist dies Tiny egg fossils Senegal’s most powerful politicians are also setting the country’s fashion agenda.

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1

Georgia president protests election result

Founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Gedenidze/Reuters Georgia’s president said Sunday that she did not recognize the country’s election results, after the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed victory. Analysts saw the vote as a referendum on whether Georgians see a future in the European Union, or alongside Russia. Pro-European President Salome Zourabichvili, whose role is largely ceremonial, called for mass protests and alleged there was vote fraud and Russian interference. Georgian Dream, which rose to power in 2012, has since moved increasingly toward Moscow and away from the West. If the election results stand, The Economist wrote, Georgia’s chance of joining the EU “seems to have slipped away,” while Moscow will have gotten “closer than ever to its goal of creating another client state.” PostEmail

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2

Japan markets brace for uncertainty

Takashi Aoyama/Reuters Japan’s ruling coalition is projected to lose its parliamentary majority in Sunday’s general election, casting uncertainty over the government’s future. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the snap vote with the aim of securing a clear mandate to govern after replacing Fumio Kishida as head of the Liberal Democratic Party, which leads the current coalition, a month ago. Losing the majority “could create a quagmire regarding the legislative process — a scenario which may not bode well for the yen and the Nikkei, at least in the short term,” one market analyst told Bloomberg. The potential for a minority coalition raises the likelihood that the next government would increase spending — setting up a conflict with Ishiba and the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish economic stance, Reuters wrote. PostEmail

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3

Trump, Harris make final pitches

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are making their last pitches to voters as the US presidential race enters its final sprint. Both held largely symbolic events in states they are unlikely to win: Harris appeared with Beyoncé in Texas, while Trump is holding a rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden, an event his campaign touted as an extravaganza showcasing his closing arguments. The rally, The New York Times wrote, is a “remarkable gambit” for Trump, whose fame and influence has been shaped by his origin story as a businessman in New York City — the same city w​​here he was convicted of felony crimes. Harris, meanwhile, is upping her outreach to male voters, rolling out sports-tinged ads portraying Trump as aloof from working-class Americans. PostEmail

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4

Musk becomes central election character

Rachel Wisniewski/Reuters Elon Musk’s increasingly fervent support of Donald Trump is cementing the billionaire’s central role in the US presidential election. Musk has become pivotal to Trump’s campaign since his July endorsement, contributing millions and appearing on stage both alone and alongside Trump to boost the Republican’s chances, an effort that is becoming “more frenzied” in the run-up to Nov. 5, The New York Times wrote. Musk — whom Trump has said could get an administration role if he wins — already has deep ties to the federal government through his rocket company SpaceX and electric-vehicle business Tesla. But despite Democrats’ frustrations with Musk’s partisanship, America will always need entrepreneurial figures like him to innovate faster than its adversaries, economics writer Noah Smith argued. PostEmail

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5

India offers a haven for global funds

Investors looking to avoid the volatility of the US election are seeking refuge in India’s markets. Foreign capital has boosted the country’s bonds, which are performing well compared to other developing markets, while its stock market hit a record high last month, Bloomberg reported. India’s appeal, analysts said, is due to the country’s firm geopolitical ties with the US and Russia, and its relatively stable currency. “In this world of uncertainty it ain’t a bad place to be,” an emerging market investor said. But it’s not yet a global equity hotspot: Signs of a rebound in Chinese stocks led foreign investors to withdraw more than $7 billion from the Indian market earlier this month, though the selloff didn’t cause drastic market swings. PostEmail

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6

Iran’s muted reaction to Israel strike

Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters Iran is seemingly downplaying Israel’s long-anticipated retaliatory strikes. Described by the Israeli Defense Forces as “precise strikes,” Tehran has so far avoided pledging a definite response to Saturday’s attack, as the country’s regime faces both a challenging economy and a fight over its future leadership, analysts said. Israel’s strike killed four soldiers and seems to have targeted military sites. US President Joe Biden told reporters Sunday he hoped this marked “the end” in escalatory actions between Israel and Iran, as the White House seeks to revert the conflict to “a shadow war and not an overt war,” a Middle East analyst wrote in The New York Times. PostEmail

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7

TSMC ramps up foreign factories

View of the TSMC factory in Arizona. TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is ramping up its foreign production lines. The company’s US president said in a private call that the production rate of usable chips by its new Arizona plant is about 4% higher than comparable Taiwanese facilities in Taiwan, Bloomberg reported. The main chip supplier for Nvidia and Apple, TSMC is also poised to start production at a Japanese factory by the end of the year, Nikkei reported. The chipmaker’s moves abroad come as it seeks to mitigate potential disruption from Chinese aggression toward Taiwan and capitalize on US and Japanese government subsidies — both the US and Japan see semiconductors as a lynchpin for economic growth, especially as the demand for AI technology grows. PostEmail

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8

Shanghai restricts Halloween costumes

Police officers keeping watch near barricades in Shanghai. Nicoco Chan/Reuters Shanghai is cracking down on Halloween costumes as authorities seek to quell any political references. The clampdown comes after a massive, impromptu gathering last year: Shanghai’s residents fully embraced Halloween in 2023, turning the Western holiday into a distinctly Chinese celebration following the end of pandemic restrictions. It offered a rare opportunity for public LGBTQ expression, and featured satirical references to China’s government that later went viral online. This year, however, the mood has been more muted. Police were observed rounding up people in fancy dress — including some who were simply wearing cat ears — and taking them into an administrative building to remove their makeup and change their outfits, the Financial Times reported. PostEmail

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Semafor Spotlight Daniel Oberhaus, 2019 / Flickr Jeff Bezos-owned newspaper The Washington Post’s decision not to endorse a US presidential candidate has prompted at least one resignation and a subscriber mass exodus, Semafor’s Max Tani was first to report. Critics said Bezos’ apparent surrender to Trump could invite future intimidation, while former editor-in-chief Marty Baron described the decision as “cowardice, with democracy as its casualty.” Semafor’s weekly Media newsletter gives you what’s new in the news industry. Subscribe for free here. → PostEmail

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9

Daring evolutionary scientist dies

Wikimedia Commons The Russian scientist who revealed the evolutionary secrets of animal domestication has died, aged 91. Lyudmila Trut and her mentor’s experiment began when they started breeding wild silver foxes in 1958, with the goal of producing tamer animals. They found that, within just a few years, the foxes had become not just friendlier but more dog-like, with floppy ears, less muscular bodies, and curlier coats and tails — traits seen in other domesticated animals, suggesting that breeding for tameness brought forth a “suite” of genes. The experiment was a bold move in postwar Soviet Russia, which was then still in thrall to Trosim Lysenko, whose pseudoscientific denouncement of “Western” genetic science exacerbated famines that killed millions, and who had other scientists arrested for researching evolution. PostEmail

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10

Tiny eggs reveal new dino species

China University of Geosciences Tiny fossils discovered in China have been confirmed as the smallest dinosaur eggs ever found. The 80-million-year-old eggs, first found in 2021, are 29mm (1.14 inches) long, barely half the size of the previous record holder, the so-called “Jingguo Micro Ellipsoid Egg.” Analysis with an electron microscope found the six eggs’ shell thickness, as well as their size, were unlike those of any known dinosaur, and the researchers believe that they belonged to an entirely new species of the ancient creatures. The discovery has given new insights into dinosaur nest-building and other reproductive behaviors, the scientists said. PostEmail

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Flagging Oct. 28: Germany’s defense minister hosts his Croatian counterpart for talks in Berlin. American utility company CenterPoint Energy releases its third-quarter earnings results. Wizards Beyond Waverly Place, a new series featuring Selena Gomez, premieres in Los Angeles. PostEmail

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Curio CJID Senegalese political leaders are drawing acclaim from fashion experts. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko are known for their “tradi-modern” style, which merges the look of traditional Senegalese garments with elements of Western dress like a European suit, along with impeccable tailoring, Le Monde wrote. “Now I have customers who come with a photo of the president and ask for his outfit,” a tailor in Dakar said. The Baobab newsletter described the style as “both professional and proudly Senegalese,” adding that the look has become a source of national pride for young professionals in Senegal. PostEmail