CFR Daily Brief

"Shake up in Japanese election, Israel's strikes on Iran."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 28 October 2024, 1315 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief October 28, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Japan’s Ruling Coalition Loses Parliamentary Majority For First Time Since 2009

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru pledged to stay on and respond to the “harsh judgment” of his party from voters after Sunday’s election. It saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament; Nikkei reported that they would hold 215 seats. The results shook a status quo in which Japan had been a longtime bastion of political predictability in the Indo-Pacific region—even amid rising security tensions. Ishiba’s own rise to power only a month ago reflected disillusionment with the LDP: he was elected in a September early election called by former LDP Prime Minister Kishida Fumio as he contended with a corruption scandal in the party.  While the party that won the second-most votes, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is centrist, far-left and far-right minority parties both grew in the vote count. Japan now faces a thirty-day deadline to form a governing coalition. Divisions within the opposition could prevent it from pulling off a coalition deal. (Nikkei, NYT)

Analysis “Coming out of a divisive LDP party presidency election last month, Ishiba faced considerable challenges even before the election,” CFR Senior Fellow Sheila A. Smith writes for the Asia Unbound blog. “The narrow victory led to the refusal of his rival, Takaichi Sanae, to support his leadership. Will she and her supporters, including the rising contender for leadership, Kobayashi Takayuki, now attribute the LDP’s momentous loss to the choice of Ishiba as party president?” “The hope had been that Japan would continue to be an anchor [in regional security],” the Wilson Center’s Shihoko Goto tells the New York Times. “Depending on what the results are in Japan and in the United States, there’s going to be a great deal of uncertainty across the region.”

Middle East and North Africa

Iran Vows ‘Appropriate’ Response to Israeli Strikes, Says Does Not Want War

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told a cabinet meeting yesterday that Tehran does “not seek war but we will defend the rights of our nation” after Israel’s attack over the weekend. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes had achieved Israel’s objectives, successfully targeting missile manufacturing facilities and air defense systems. (The Guardian, BBC)   CFR’s Steven A. Cook discusses why an Iranian response would be risky. Egypt/Israel/Palestinian territories: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi proposed a two-day cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that would allow four hostages in Gaza to be freed and aid to be delivered. Neither Israel nor Hamas immediately responded to the proposal. Cease-fire negotiations are continuing today in Doha. (AP, The National)

Pacific Rim

Commonwealth Nations Say ‘Time Has Come’ For Reparations Conversation

More than fifty nations including the United Kingdom (UK) and former British colonies noted in a Samoa summit communiqué “calls for discussions on reparatory justice” regarding slavery and that “the time has come” for a meaningful conversation on the matter. The UK had aimed to keep reparations off the summit agenda and still maintains it will not pay financial reparations. (FT, BBC)

South and Central Asia

Uzbekistan Holds Parliamentary Elections With Ruling Party Highly Favored

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has somewhat eased censorship in the country and released some political prisoners since coming to power in 2016. Even so, yesterday’s parliamentary election occurred without muscular political opposition. Final results are expected within ten days. (AP)  Bangladesh: The country’s new central bank head told the Financial Times that businesspeople linked to the toppled former government were working with Bangladeshi state intelligence to siphon almost $17 billion from the banking sector. A lawyer for one of the accused businesspeople said there was “no truth” to those allegations. (FT)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Malaysia, Ethiopia Pledge to Boost Bilateral Relations

The two countries agreed to up cooperation in agriculture, industry, and trade, Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed said during a visit to Malaysia over the weekend. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanked Ethiopia for supporting Malaysia’s bid to become a BRICS partner country, which it joined at last week’s BRICS summit. (AfricaNews, AP)   CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo explains why the BRICS group is expanding.  Ghana: The government “strongly” rejected a Reuters report that Islamist militants in Burkina Faso were secretly using northern Ghana as a logistical base, saying Ghana’s security forces combat terrorism and have no tacit agreements with militant groups. (Reuters)

Europe

Georgia’s Pro-Western President, Opposition Reject Results of Parliamentary Vote

Official results gave victory to the ruling pro-Russian party, Georgian Dream, while observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reported irregularities such as vote-buying and voter intimidation. President Salome Zourabichvili said the country was the victim of a “Russian special operation” and called for protests; the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the European Union both called for investigations. (RFE/RL, Reuters)   Vatican: A highly anticipated policy meeting ended yesterday pledging changes that could give more power to local dioceses but did not deliver shifts on the issues of female deacons, outreach to the LGBTQ+ community, and married priests. (WaPo) This Why It Matters episode unpacks the power of the pope.

Americas

Uruguay Presidential Election Goes to Runoff

Left alliance candidate Yamandú Orsi won the first round of presidential elections yesterday and will face center-right Álvaro Delgado in a November 24 runoff, according to partial election results with more than 80 percent of votes counted. Exit polls suggested that two referendums also held yesterday—that proposed a pension overhaul and permission for nocturnal police raids—were both likely to be rejected. (AP, Reuters) Bolivia: Former President Evo Morales accused the government of trying to assassinate him yesterday after his car was hit by bullets. President Luis Arce Catacora was once a close Morales ally but there is now a deep political rift between the two. Arce condemned violence in politics and called for an investigation. (Reuters)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Media Reports: Chinese Hackers Targeted Phones of Trump, Vance, Campaigners for Harris

Chinese hackers targeted cell phones used by Former President Donald Trump, his running mate Senator JD Vance, and members of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, unnamed sources told multiple media outlets on Friday. The FBI did not confirm the identities of potential targets but said it was probing “unauthorized access to commercial telecommunications infrastructure by actors affiliated with the People’s Republic of China.” (AP, NYT)

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